Emerging Markets

シグナル

EM Banks Drawdown+3 pt

EM financials (EMFN) -8% in 5 days — broad EM banking stress重要な理由： EM bank drawdowns signal broad financial system stress across developing economies

EM Credit Stress+2 pt

EM sovereign bonds (EMB) underperforming — broad EM credit deterioration重要な理由： EM credit stress signals rising default risk and capital flight from developing markets

EM Credit Drawdown+2 pt

EM credit proxy -5% in 5 days — broad credit deterioration重要な理由： Sustained EM credit drawdown indicates deepening financial stress across emerging markets

EM Market Drawdown+2 pt

EM ETF (EEM) -5% in 5 days — broad emerging market equity weakness重要な理由： Broad EM equity weakness confirms stress is systemic across emerging markets

EM FX Stress+2 pt

USD strength (UUP) >3% in 3 days — broad EM currency pressure重要な理由： Dollar strength creates EM FX stress, increasing USD-denominated debt burden

EM Volatility Elevated+1 pt

Emerging market volatility above 35 — elevated uncertainty重要な理由： Elevated EM volatility indicates broad uncertainty and potential for capital flight

EM Market Stable+0 pt

EM ETF (EEM) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off重要な理由： Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to specific countries

EM Real Estate Drawdown+2 pt

EM real estate proxy -10% in 5 days — broad EM property stress重要な理由： EM real estate stress signals broad financial tightening across developing markets

EM Market Stable+0 pt

EM ETF (EEM) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off重要な理由： Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to specific countries

追跡している金融商品

MKT — iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM)

Broadest EM equity benchmark. Drawdowns here confirm stress is systemic across developing economies, not country-specific.平穏 5d > -1% · 注意 5d -1% to -3% · ストレス 5d < -8%

BANK — EM Financials (EMFN proxy)

EM bank drawdowns signal broad financial system stress across developing economies. Often precedes sovereign issues.平穏 5d > -3% · 注意 5d -3% to -8% · ストレス 5d < -8%

CRD — iShares JP Morgan EM Bond ETF (EMB)

EM sovereign bonds. The key indicator for EM credit risk. Weakness signals rising default risk and capital flight from developing markets.平穏 5d > -1% · 注意 5d -1% to -3% · ストレス 5d < -3%

FX — Invesco DB US Dollar Index (UUP) — inverse EM FX

Dollar strength is the single biggest risk factor for EM. Rising USD increases debt burden, triggers capital outflows, and pressures EM central banks.平穏 3d < +0.5% · 注意 3d +0.5% to +2% · ストレス 3d > +2% USD strength

SVRN — EM Sovereign Bond Proxy

EM sovereign credit. Weakness signals rising default risk across developing economies.平穏 5d > -1% · 注意 5d -1% to -3% · ストレス 5d < -3%

この地域に影響した過去の危機

• COVID-19 CrashFeb 2020 – Mar 2020

  Fastest bear market in history. Global lockdowns caused simultaneous supply and demand shocks across all asset classes.

  VIX ピーク 82.69 · S&P 500 下落率 -33.9%

• China Devaluation / EM CrisisAug 2015 – Feb 2016

  PBoC surprised markets with CNY devaluation, triggering global EM selloff and commodity crash. Oil fell below $30.

  VIX ピーク 40.74 · S&P 500 下落率 -14.2%

• Taper TantrumMay 2013 – Sep 2013

  Fed signaled tapering QE. EM currencies and bonds sold off sharply as dollar strengthened.

  VIX ピーク 21.91 · S&P 500 下落率 -5.8%