CrisisBoardが市場・マクロ・ニュースの生データを地域別危機スコアと世界的リスクレベルに変換する方法。本ページは完全に監査可能なルール集です。
最終更新: 2026-04-20 · 259 シグナル定義済み
商用の危機ダッシュボードのほとんどはブラックボックスです。モデルからスコアが出力され、そのモデルはベンダーの独自技術として非公開にされています。モデルが正しければそれで構いませんが、誤っていれば役に立ちません。中身が見えない数値には反論のしようがないからです。
CrisisBoardは正反対のアプローチを取ります。地域のスコアに寄与するすべてのシグナルは、名前の付いた公開ルールであり、固定のしきい値、明示されたデータソース、固定のポイント値を持ちます。スコアリングのロジックは決定論的で、同じ日に同じ入力を与えれば常に同じスコアが得られます。学習もフィッティングもなく、リリースごとに変わる重みもありません。
これには2つの帰結があります。第一に、このダッシュボードは反証可能です。しきい値が公開されているので、特定のしきい値に異論があれば、その妥当性を正面から問うことができます。第二に、私たちが把握していないことについて正直であらざるを得ません。名前の付いたシグナルが捉えていない事象は、スコアにも表れないからです。これはバグではなく仕様です。クーデターが起きたばかりなのに政治リスクのシグナルを持たない地域でスコアが3/20だとしても、それはクーデターが重要でないという予測ではなく、私たちのシグナル群が不完全であることを思い出させるものです。
機械学習にも役割はあり、スコアリング以外のタスク（自然言語によるブリーフの生成や異常のクラスタリングなど）には活用しています。しかし、各地域カードの最上部に表示される数値は、常に公開されたルールの合計です。
各地域は合計スコアに基づいて5つの状態のいずれかに分類されます。範囲は地域によって異なります。米国のような先進国市場の地域とアルゼンチンのような新興市場とでは、平常時のボラティリティ水準が違うため、異なるしきい値を用います。以下に示すポイント範囲は、代表例である米国のしきい値（監視 8、発火 10、拡大 12）です。他の地域ではこれらが上下にずれ、地域ごとの正確な境界値はregion-configファイルで定義されています。
目立ったストレスは検出されていません。市場の通常の変動や、単一資産の孤立した動きによる日常的なノイズです。対応は不要です。
早期警戒指標がそろい始めています。弱いながらも本物のシグナルがいくつか同時に発火している状態です（銀行株の軟化、クレジットスプレッドの拡大、ボラティリティのじわじわとした上昇など）。注視に値しますが、まだ行動する段階ではありません。
ストレスが確認された状態です。複数のシグナル・カテゴリーが同時に発火しています。歴史的に、フェーズ1に達した地域は、数日から数週間のうちにさらに悪化する確率が有意に高くなっています。
フェーズ1のストレスがボラティリティの急上昇によって裏付けられた状態です。スコアがすでに発火帯にあり、かつその地域のボラティリティ指標（米国ではVIX）が28を超えたときに発火します。市場は単にストレス下にあるだけでなく、激しく動いています。歴史的に、フェーズ2への最短ルートです。
システミックな混乱です。流動性ストレス、為替の混乱、信用の断絶など、複数の崩壊シグナルが確認されています。「本当に起きている」段階です。
状態遷移にはヒステリシスがあります。フェーズ1に達した地域は、相場が1日上昇しただけでは正常に戻りません。これによりノイズによる状態のちらつきを防げるうえ、ストレスが蓄積してから解放されるという、危機の実際の展開の仕方にも合致します。
各シグナルは1行で表示されます。列は名称 / 金融商品 / しきい値 / ポイント / 重要な理由の順に読んでください。ポイントは合算されて地域の合計スコアになります。ポイント値が高いほど、そのシグナルが歴史的に実際の危機をよく予測してきたことを意味します。私たちが政治的により重要だと考えているという意味ではありません。
以下のリストは、プロジェクトのシグナル用語集ファイルから直接生成されています。ここに載っているシグナルはエンジンで稼働中であり、載っていないシグナルは使われていません。
以下のシグナル定義は、ルールファイルの記載どおり英語で掲載しています。
Argentine bank ADRs (GGAL, BMA, SUPV) -12% in 5 days — banking sector stress
Local banks (ADRs) show stress from FX and sovereign issues. These are the most liquid proxies for Argentine financial system health.
China Large-Cap (FXI) banks component -8% in 5 days — Chinese banking stress
Chinese bank stocks are first to show stress from property/credit issues in China's financial system
UK banks (BARC, LLOY) -8% in 5 days — UK banking sector stress
UK banks are highly leveraged to property and credit markets; drawdowns signal systemic risk
Brazilian banks (ITUB, BBD) -8% in 5 days — banking sector stress
Brazilian banks are exposed to sovereign and FX risk; drawdowns signal systemic concerns
Indian banks (IBN, HDB) -8% in 5 days — banking sector stress
Indian banks are key indicators of domestic financial health and NPA risk
Saudi Arabia ETF (KSA) banks component -8% in 5 days — GCC banking stress
GCC banks are heavily exposed to oil revenue and sovereign wealth; drawdowns signal fiscal stress
Australian banks (CBA) -8% in 5 days — banking sector stress
Australian banks are heavily exposed to property market; drawdowns signal housing/credit risk
Turkish banks proxy -8% in 5 days — banking sector stress
Turkish banks are exposed to lira depreciation and high inflation; drawdowns signal systemic risk
Korean banks (KB, SHG) -8% in 5 days — banking sector stress
Korean banks are exposed to household debt and chaebol risk; drawdowns signal systemic concerns
US Regional Banks (KRE) -8% in 5 days — banking sector stress
Regional banks are first to show stress in financial system issues
Euro Banks Index (SX7E) -8% in 5 days — EU banking stress
European banks are first to show stress in EU financial system
Asia Financials -8% in 5 days — Asian banking stress
Asian financials are first to show stress in regional financial system
Argentine bank ADRs (GGAL, BMA, SUPV) -8% in 5 days — banking stress
Local banks (ADRs) show stress from FX and sovereign issues
Coinbase (COIN) -15% in 5 days — exchange distress
Exchange stress precedes broader crypto crisis and liquidity issues
Japanese banks (MUFG, SMFG) -8% in 5 days — banking stress
Japanese bank stress signals JGB or property market concerns
Mexican banks (BSMX) -8% in 5 days — banking stress
Mexican bank stress signals sovereign or FX concerns
Taiwan banks (Cathay, Fubon) -8% in 5 days — banking stress
Taiwan bank stress signals property or geopolitical concerns
European High Yield (EHYG) underperforms Investment Grade (EIGB) — credit stress
HY underperforming IG indicates EU credit market stress and risk aversion
China Bond ETF (CBON) -3% in 3 days — credit market deterioration
Chinese credit stress often precedes broader EM contagion and signals tightening financial conditions
China credit proxy -5% in 5 days — broad credit deterioration
Sustained credit drawdown indicates deepening financial stress in China
UK gilts (IGLT) underperforming — credit market deterioration
Gilt stress (as seen in 2022 LDI crisis) can cascade through pension funds and banks
UK credit proxy -5% in 5 days — broad credit deterioration
Sustained credit drawdown indicates deepening financial stress in the UK
EM bond proxy (EMB) underperforming — Brazilian credit deterioration
Credit stress in Brazil often precedes broader EM contagion
Brazil credit proxy -5% in 5 days — broad credit deterioration
Sustained credit drawdown indicates deepening financial stress in Brazil
India bond proxy (IGIB) underperforming — credit deterioration
Credit stress in India signals tightening financial conditions and potential NPA issues
India credit proxy -5% in 5 days — broad credit deterioration
Sustained credit drawdown indicates deepening financial stress in India
EM bond proxy (EMB) underperforming — GCC credit deterioration
Credit stress in GCC signals oil-related fiscal concerns and sovereign risk
GCC credit proxy -5% in 5 days — broad credit deterioration
Sustained credit drawdown indicates deepening financial stress in GCC
Australian bonds (IAF) underperforming — credit deterioration
Credit stress in Australia signals tightening conditions and potential mortgage stress
Australia credit proxy -5% in 5 days — broad credit deterioration
Sustained credit drawdown indicates deepening financial stress in Australia
EM bond proxy (EMB) underperforming — Turkish credit deterioration
Credit stress in Turkey signals sovereign risk and potential lira crisis
Turkey credit proxy -5% in 5 days — broad credit deterioration
Sustained credit drawdown indicates deepening financial stress in Turkey
South Korea ETF (EWY) credit component underperforming — credit deterioration
Credit stress in Korea signals tightening conditions and potential tech sector contagion
South Korea credit proxy -5% in 5 days — broad credit deterioration
Sustained credit drawdown indicates deepening financial stress in Korea
EM sovereign bonds (EMB) underperforming — broad EM credit deterioration
EM credit stress signals rising default risk and capital flight from developing markets
EM credit proxy -5% in 5 days — broad credit deterioration
Sustained EM credit drawdown indicates deepening financial stress across emerging markets
Senior Loans (SRLN) underperform High Yield (HYG) — credit quality deterioration
Senior loans should be safer than HY bonds. Underperformance signals credit stress
US credit proxy -5% in 5 days — broad credit deterioration
Sustained credit drawdown indicates deepening financial stress in the US
EU credit proxy -5% in 5 days — broad credit deterioration
Sustained credit drawdown indicates deepening financial stress in Europe
Asia High Yield underperforms Investment Grade — credit deterioration
HY underperforming IG indicates Asian credit market stress and risk aversion
Asia credit proxy -5% in 5 days — broad credit deterioration
Sustained credit drawdown indicates deepening financial stress in Asia
Argentine sovereign bonds underperform — credit deterioration
Argentine credit stress signals rising default or restructuring risk
Argentine credit proxy -5% in 5 days — broad credit deterioration
Sustained credit drawdown indicates deepening financial stress in Argentina
China Large-Cap (FXI) -5% in 5 days — broad Chinese equity weakness
Broad equity weakness confirms stress is affecting the wider Chinese market
China market volatility above 35 — elevated uncertainty
Elevated volatility indicates market uncertainty and potential for sharp moves
China Large-Cap (FXI) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to specific sectors
FTSE 100 -5% in 5 days — broad UK equity weakness
Broad UK equity weakness confirms stress is affecting the wider market
UK market volatility above 25 — elevated uncertainty
Elevated volatility indicates market uncertainty and potential for sharp moves
FTSE 100 holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to specific sectors
Brazil ETF (EWZ) -5% in 5 days — broad Brazilian equity weakness
Broad equity weakness confirms stress is affecting the wider Brazilian market
Brazil market volatility above 35 — elevated uncertainty
Elevated volatility indicates market uncertainty and potential for sharp moves
Brazil ETF (EWZ) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to specific sectors
India ETF (INDA) -5% in 5 days — broad Indian equity weakness
Broad equity weakness confirms stress is affecting the wider Indian market
India market volatility above 35 — elevated uncertainty
Elevated volatility indicates market uncertainty and potential for sharp moves
India ETF (INDA) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to specific sectors
Saudi Arabia ETF (KSA) -5% in 5 days — broad GCC equity weakness
Broad GCC equity weakness confirms stress is affecting the wider regional market
GCC market volatility above 35 — elevated uncertainty
Elevated volatility indicates market uncertainty, often oil-driven
Saudi Arabia ETF (KSA) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to oil sector
ASX 200 -5% in 5 days — broad Australian equity weakness
Broad equity weakness confirms stress is affecting the wider Australian market
Australian market volatility above 25 — elevated uncertainty
Elevated volatility indicates market uncertainty and potential for sharp moves
ASX 200 holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to specific sectors
Turkey ETF (TUR) -5% in 5 days — broad Turkish equity weakness
Broad equity weakness confirms stress is affecting the wider Turkish market
Turkish market volatility above 35 — elevated uncertainty
Elevated volatility indicates market uncertainty, often FX-driven in Turkey
Turkey ETF (TUR) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to FX/rates
South Korea ETF (EWY) -5% in 5 days — broad Korean equity weakness
Broad equity weakness confirms stress is affecting the wider Korean market
Korean market volatility above 35 — elevated uncertainty
Elevated volatility indicates market uncertainty, often tech/semiconductor driven
South Korea ETF (EWY) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to specific sectors
EM ETF (EEM) -5% in 5 days — broad emerging market equity weakness
Broad EM equity weakness confirms stress is systemic across emerging markets
Emerging market volatility above 35 — elevated uncertainty
Elevated EM volatility indicates broad uncertainty and potential for capital flight
EM ETF (EEM) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to specific countries
S&P 500 (SPY) -5% in 5 days — broad market weakness
Equity weakness confirms stress is affecting broader market
VIX above 25 — elevated market fear
Elevated VIX indicates market uncertainty and potential for sharp moves
S&P 500 (SPY) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to specific sectors
Euro Stoxx 50 (STOXX50E) -5% in 5 days — broad EU equity weakness
EU equity weakness confirms stress is affecting broader European market
STOXX50E Realized Vol above 25 — elevated EU market fear
Elevated STOXX50E Realized Vol indicates EU market uncertainty and potential for sharp moves
Euro Stoxx 50 holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to specific sectors
MSCI Asia-Pacific -5% in 5 days — broad Asian equity weakness
Regional equity weakness confirms stress is affecting broader Asian market
Hang Seng vol above 25 — elevated Asian market fear
Elevated regional volatility indicates market uncertainty and potential for sharp moves
MSCI Asia-Pacific holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to specific countries
MSCI Argentina ETF (ARGT) -5% in 5 days — broad Argentine equity weakness
Broad equity weakness confirms stress is affecting the wider Argentine market
Argentina market volatility above 35 — elevated uncertainty
Elevated volatility indicates market uncertainty, often FX-driven in Argentina
MSCI Argentina ETF (ARGT) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to FX/sovereign
China Large-Cap (FXI) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to specific sectors
FTSE 100 holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to specific sectors
Brazil ETF (EWZ) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to specific sectors
India ETF (INDA) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to specific sectors
Saudi Arabia ETF (KSA) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to oil sector
ASX 200 holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to specific sectors
Turkey ETF (TUR) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to FX/rates
South Korea ETF (EWY) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to specific sectors
EM ETF (EEM) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to specific countries
Bitcoin (BTC-USD) -5% in 5 days — crypto market weakness
Bitcoin drawdowns often precede broader crypto market sell-offs
Ethereum (ETH-USD) -12% in 5 days — altcoin stress
ETH weakness signals altcoin market stress and potential DeFi contagion
Bitcoin volatility above 25 — elevated uncertainty
Elevated volatility indicates market uncertainty and potential for sharp moves
Bitcoin (BTC-USD) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to specific tokens
DXY volatility above 25 — elevated FX uncertainty
Elevated FX volatility indicates currency market uncertainty
Japan ETF (EWJ) -5% in 5 days — broad Japanese equity weakness
Broad equity weakness confirms stress affecting wider Japanese market
Japanese market volatility above 25 — elevated uncertainty
Elevated volatility indicates Japanese market uncertainty
Japan ETF (EWJ) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — stress may be contained to specific sectors
Mexico ETF (EWW) -5% in 5 days — broad Mexican equity weakness
Broad equity weakness confirms stress affecting wider Mexican market
Mexican market volatility above 35 — elevated uncertainty
Elevated volatility indicates Mexican market uncertainty
Mexico ETF (EWW) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — stress may be contained to specific sectors
TSMC (TSM) -12% in 5 days — semiconductor supply chain risk
TSMC weakness signals semiconductor supply chain stress
Taiwan ETF (EWT) -5% in 5 days — broad Taiwanese equity weakness
Broad equity weakness confirms stress affecting wider Taiwan market
Taiwan market volatility above 35 — elevated uncertainty
Elevated volatility indicates Taiwan market uncertainty, often geopolitical
Taiwan ETF (EWT) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — stress may be contained to specific sectors
Contado con Liquidación (CCL) +6% in 3 days — primary FX stress indicator
CCL (contado con liquidación) is the main FX stress indicator for Argentina. A sharp rise means the peso is weakening rapidly against the dollar in the parallel market.
Argentine sovereign bonds (GD30) underperform US IG — sovereign risk rising
Argentine sovereign bonds underperforming US IG indicates the market is pricing in higher default or restructuring risk for Argentina.
CNY/USD move >3% in 3 days — yuan depreciation pressure
Rapid yuan weakening signals capital flight and potential PBOC intervention risk
GBP/USD move >3% in 3 days — sterling depreciation pressure
Rapid sterling weakening signals loss of confidence in UK economy/fiscal policy
BRL/USD move >3% in 3 days — real depreciation pressure
Rapid real weakening signals capital flight and potential central bank intervention
INR/USD move >3% in 3 days — rupee depreciation pressure
Rapid rupee weakening signals capital outflows and potential RBI intervention
USD peg pressure detected — potential devaluation risk
GCC currencies are pegged to USD; stress here signals extreme fiscal pressure
AUD/USD move >3% in 3 days — Aussie dollar depreciation pressure
Rapid AUD weakening signals commodity downturn and potential capital outflows
TRY/USD move >3% in 3 days — lira depreciation pressure
Rapid lira weakening signals loss of confidence and potential central bank policy failure
KRW/USD move >3% in 3 days — won depreciation pressure
Rapid won weakening signals capital outflows and potential BoK intervention
USD strength (UUP) >3% in 3 days — broad EM currency pressure
Dollar strength creates EM FX stress, increasing USD-denominated debt burden
USD index move >3% in 3 days — dollar volatility
Rapid dollar moves signal global risk-off or flight to safety dynamics
EUR/USD move >3% in 3 days — euro volatility
Rapid euro moves signal ECB policy concerns or eurozone fragmentation risk
Asian currency basket move >3% in 3 days — regional FX pressure
Rapid Asian currency weakening signals capital flight from the region
FX proxy move >3% in 3 days — peso depreciation pressure
Rapid FX moves signal capital flight and parallel market stress
Dollar Index strength >3% — strong USD indicates global stress
Strong USD typically signals flight to safety and global risk aversion
Dollar Index strength >5% — extreme USD demand
Extreme dollar strength indicates severe global financial stress
Emerging market FX stress >4% — EM currency weakness
EM FX stress signals capital flight from developing markets
USD/JPY down >2% — yen strengthening (risk-off)
Yen strength indicates flight to safety and risk aversion
Cross-currency volatility >3% — FX market dislocation
High cross-currency volatility signals FX market stress
EUR/USD down >3% in 5 days — euro weakness
Euro weakness signals eurozone stress or dollar strength
GBP/USD down >3% in 5 days — pound weakness
Pound weakness signals UK economic concerns or dollar strength
USD/CNY up >2% — yuan depreciation pressure
Yuan weakness signals China FX pressure and potential PBOC intervention
USD/MXN up >4% — peso weakness (EM bellwether)
Peso is most liquid EM currency; weakness signals broader EM stress
2+ major pairs with >2% 5d moves — widespread FX stress
Multiple major pairs stressed indicates systemic FX market dislocation
MXN/USD move >3% in 3 days — peso depreciation pressure
Peso is most liquid EM currency; weakness signals EM stress
China Overseas Land (0688.HK) -5% in 5 days — property sector stress
China's property sector is a key systemic risk; drawdowns signal potential contagion to banks and broader economy
UK property (BLND) -10% in 5 days — commercial real estate stress
UK commercial property is a key stress indicator, especially post-Brexit and with rising rates
Australian Property ETF (VAP.AX) -5% in 5 days — property sector stress
Australian property is a key systemic risk given high household debt levels
Office REITs (VNO, SLG, BXP) -5% in 5 days — commercial real estate stress
Office REITs are canaries in coal mine for credit/liquidity issues
EU Real Estate (EQRE) -10% in 5 days — European property stress
European real estate stress can cascade through banks and pension funds
Wharf Real Estate (1997.HK) -5% in 5 days — Asian property stress
HK developers are canaries in coal mine for Asian property/credit issues
Argentine real estate (IRSA, CRESY) -10% in 5 days — property stress
Argentine real estate stress often accompanies FX and sovereign crises
China Overseas Land (0688.HK) -5% in 5 days — property sector stress
China's property sector is a key systemic risk; drawdowns signal potential contagion
UK property (BLND) -10% in 5 days — commercial real estate stress
UK commercial property is a key stress indicator, especially post-Brexit
Brazil REITs -10% in 5 days — property sector stress
Brazilian real estate stress often accompanies rate hikes and credit tightening
India REITs -10% in 5 days — property sector stress
Indian real estate stress signals potential NPA issues in banking sector
Gulf real estate -10% in 5 days — property sector stress
GCC real estate is heavily tied to oil revenue and sovereign spending
Turkish REITs -10% in 5 days — property sector stress
Turkish real estate stress often accompanies lira depreciation and rate hikes
South Korea REITs proxy -10% in 5 days — property sector stress
Korean real estate stress signals household debt concerns and potential banking contagion
EM real estate proxy -10% in 5 days — broad EM property stress
EM real estate stress signals broad financial tightening across developing markets
T-Bills (BIL) price up + volume ≥2× average — investors hiding in safety
Investors hiding in T-Bills = expecting market stress - core thesis pillar
EU Money Market (CSH2.PA) price up + volume ≥2× average — investors hiding in safety
Investors hiding in EU money markets = expecting European market stress - core thesis pillar
VIX rising faster than 2%/minute — panic acceleration
Rapid VIX acceleration indicates sudden fear spike even before absolute thresholds hit
Regional banks (KRE) dropping faster than 1.5%/minute — rapid banking stress
Sudden banking sector drops indicate liquidity or confidence crisis developing
High Yield (HYG) dropping faster than 0.8%/minute — credit spread widening acceleration
Rapid credit selloffs signal flight to quality before spreads hit critical levels
STOXX50E Realized Vol rising faster than 2%/minute — European panic acceleration
Rapid European volatility spikes indicate sudden stress in euro markets
European banks (SX7E) dropping faster than 1.5%/minute — rapid banking stress
Sudden EU banking drops indicate systemic euro-area financial stress
European High Yield (EHYG) dropping faster than 0.8%/minute — credit stress acceleration
Rapid euro credit selloffs precede broader European financial stress
ARS dropping faster than 1%/minute — currency crisis acceleration
Rapid peso drops indicate loss of confidence and capital flight
50%+ of regions rising simultaneously (5+ pts) — contagion risk
Synchronized rapid deterioration across regions signals systemic contagion
>20% of news contains crisis keywords — media panic
High panic keyword percentage indicates widespread crisis coverage
>40% of news is crisis-related — extreme media alarm
Majority crisis coverage signals major unfolding events
>60% of news has negative sentiment — pessimism surge
Widespread negative sentiment reflects deteriorating conditions
>80% of news negative — overwhelming pessimism
Extreme negativity indicates severe crisis or panic
5+ crisis articles in 30 minutes — breaking crisis
High-frequency crisis news indicates rapidly developing situation
Single region >30% of crisis articles — regional focus
Geographic concentration indicates specific regional crisis
Crisis keywords in 3+ regions simultaneously — contagion
Multi-region crises indicate contagion or coordinated events
>20% global keywords + >30% panic — systemic global event
Global crisis coverage indicates systemic worldwide emergency
<10 unique sources with >50 articles — low source diversity
Echo chambers suggest limited independent verification of news
Very recent crisis news (<30 min avg) with high panic — breaking event
Fresh panic news indicates new crisis developments
Crisis news >2hrs old but still high panic — ongoing crisis
Sustained coverage indicates crisis is not resolving quickly
Federal Funds Rate ≥4.5% — restrictive monetary policy territory
Elevated rates above 4.5% indicate restrictive policy that slows growth and increases recession risk
Federal Funds Rate ≥5.5% — crisis-risk zone
Rates above 5.5% historically precede recessions (2000 dot-com, 2007 pre-GFC)
US Treasury 3M/10Y spread inverted — recession warning
Inverted yield curve has preceded every US recession since 1950s. Bond market pricing recession risk
Deeply inverted 3M/10Y curve (>-50bp) — severe recession signal
Deep inversions indicate bond market pricing severe economic contraction
Fed Funds rate in restrictive territory (>5%) — tight monetary policy
High rates slow economy and increase financial stress on leveraged borrowers
Fed running quantitative tightening >$90B/month — major liquidity drain
Rapid balance sheet reduction drains liquidity from financial system
Fed hiking >25bp per meeting — aggressive tightening pace
Rapid rate increases risk breaking something in financial system
Fed making emergency rate cuts — crisis response
Emergency cuts only happen when Fed sees severe crisis requiring immediate action
Fed balance sheet shrinking >2% MoM — rapid liquidity withdrawal
Rapid balance sheet shrinkage can trigger liquidity crunch
Fed restarting quantitative easing — crisis liquidity injection
Fed only restarts QE in crisis to prevent financial system collapse
ECB deposit rate >4% — tight policy for European economy
High ECB rates stress European banks and sovereign debt markets
BOJ ending decades of ZIRP/NIRP — major regime change
BOJ policy shift ends yen carry trade and reverses global liquidity flows
BOJ maintaining yield curve control — JGB market distortion
YCC distorts bond market pricing and creates instability risk
BOJ in rate hiking cycle — global liquidity drain
BOJ hikes strengthen yen and reverse decades of yen carry trades
PBoC cutting rates aggressively — China stimulus mode
PBoC easing signals Chinese economy in distress requiring stimulus
Real interest rates negative (rates < inflation) — excessive ease
Negative real rates indicate central banks behind curve, risk of inflation or bubbles
Real rates >3% — very tight monetary conditions
Very high real rates slow economy and increase debt service stress
3+ major central banks cutting rates simultaneously — global crisis response
Coordinated easing only happens in severe global crises (2008, 2020)
3+ major central banks hiking simultaneously — global liquidity drain
Synchronized tightening drains global liquidity and increases crisis risk
Multiple major policy meetings imminent — policy uncertainty spike
Policy meetings create uncertainty and volatility around potential surprises
CPI ≥4.0% — above Fed target
Inflation above 4% forces Fed tightening and raises recession risk
CPI ≥6.0% — crisis-level inflation
Inflation at 6%+ indicates severe pricing instability requiring aggressive Fed action
Unemployment Rate ≥4.5% — labor market deterioration
Rising unemployment signals economic contraction and weakening demand
Unemployment Rate ≥6.0% — recession indicator
Unemployment at 6%+ is a strong recession signal and indicates broad economic distress
Real GDP growth <0% — recession
Negative GDP growth defines technical recession and indicates severe economic contraction
Real GDP growth <1.5% — pre-recession warning
GDP below 1.5% indicates weak growth and elevated recession risk
10Y Treasury Yield <2.5% — investors seeking safety
Very low yields indicate flight to safety as investors anticipate economic weakness
10Y Treasury Yield >5.0% — bond market stress
Very high yields indicate bond market selling pressure and fiscal/inflation concerns
High rates + High unemployment + Weak GDP — multiple recession indicators
When 2+ recession indicators trigger simultaneously, recession probability is very high
High inflation + Weak growth + High unemployment — stagflation scenario
Stagflation (1970s-style) is policy nightmare with high inflation during economic contraction
Commodity price volatility elevated — market instability
High volatility indicates uncertainty and potential supply disruptions
Supply chain metrics showing elevated volatility — instability
Volatility indicates disruptions and uncertainty in global logistics
Gold >$4500/oz — safe haven panic buying
Extreme gold prices indicate fear and flight to safety
Gold up >15% (3M) — crisis hedge demand
Rapid gold appreciation signals investors pricing crisis scenarios
WTI crude oil >$120/barrel — energy crisis
Oil above $120 severely impacts economy, increases inflation and recession risk
WTI crude oil >$100/barrel — inflationary pressure
Oil above $100 increases inflation and consumer cost pressures
Oil prices up >20% in 1 month — supply shock
Rapid oil price increases signal supply disruption or geopolitical crisis
Oil price volatility >40% — energy market instability
High volatility creates planning uncertainty for businesses and consumers
Natural gas up >30% (1M) — energy supply shock
Gas spikes impact heating costs and power generation
US Strategic Petroleum Reserve <50% of average — energy security risk
Depleted reserves reduce ability to respond to supply disruptions
US Strategic Petroleum Reserve <70% of average — reduced buffer
Lower reserves provide less cushion against supply shocks
Strategic reserves <20 days of supply — minimal buffer
Low days of supply means limited ability to weather disruptions
Energy security index <50/100 — severe energy shortage risk
Energy crises disrupt economy and can cause power outages
Energy security index <70/100 — elevated energy stress
Energy stress increases costs and vulnerability to disruptions
Wheat prices up >30% year-over-year — food security threat
Wheat is staple food - price spikes cause hunger and social instability
Corn prices up >30% year-over-year — food inflation
Corn feeds livestock and humans - price spikes ripple through food system
2+ major grains up >15% (3M) — food supply disruption
Multiple grain spikes indicate systemic food supply issues
Wheat reserves <85% of average — reduced buffer
Low reserves mean less ability to stabilize prices during shortages
Corn reserves <80 days of supply — tight supply
Low days of supply increases vulnerability to weather or crop failures
Food security index <50/100 — severe food shortage risk
Food crises cause humanitarian disasters and political instability
Food security index <70/100 — elevated food stress
Food stress increases prices and reduces access for vulnerable populations
Copper down >-20% YoY — recession signal
Copper is economic barometer - crashes precede recessions
Copper up >30% YoY — supply shortage or inflation
Copper spikes signal supply constraints or overheating economy
2+ critical materials at high supply risk — material shortages
Multiple critical material shortages cascade through supply chains
1 critical material at severe supply risk — material constraint
Single material shortage can bottleneck entire production chains
3+ materials at high supply risk — material stress
Multiple material risks increase vulnerability to supply shocks
Rare earth high supply risk + >20% price spike (3M)
Rare earths are critical for electronics, EVs, and defense - shortages are severe
Lithium stockpiles <30 days — EV battery constraint
Lithium shortages constrain EV production and battery supply
Cobalt high risk + <30 days stockpile — battery crisis
Cobalt is essential for batteries - shortages limit EV and electronics production
Critical-severity commodity supply disruptions active
Critical disruptions can cause shortages and price shocks
2+ high-severity commodity disruptions — supply chain stress
Multiple simultaneous disruptions compound supply problems
Commodity security index <60/100 — broad commodity stress
Broad commodity stress indicates systemic supply and price problems
Baltic Dry Index >250% of historical average — shipping crisis
Extreme freight costs indicate severe shipping capacity constraints
Baltic Dry Index >180% of average — high shipping costs
Elevated freight increases costs and reduces trade volumes
Shipping costs up >30% (1M) — rapid logistics deterioration
Rapid freight increases signal sudden capacity shortages
Shanghai Freight Index >200% of average — container shortage
Container shortages disrupt global trade and increase costs
Major ports at critical congestion levels — severe bottlenecks
Critical congestion creates massive delays and supply chain breakdowns
2+ major ports severely congested — widespread delays
Multiple congested ports indicate systemic port capacity issues
Average port congestion >60% — global port stress
High average congestion shows systemic problems across port network
LA/Long Beach ports >70% congestion — US import bottleneck
LA ports handle 40% of US container imports - congestion impacts economy
2+ ports with >48hr vessel wait times — severe congestion
Long wait times increase costs and reduce effective shipping capacity
Semiconductor lead times >26 weeks — severe chip shortage
Extreme lead times halt production of cars, electronics, appliances
Semiconductor lead times >20 weeks — chip supply stress
Long lead times constrain production and increase costs
Chip lead times increased +4 weeks (3M) — deteriorating supply
Worsening lead times signal supply not keeping up with demand
Semiconductor shortage index >70/100 — widespread shortages
High shortage index indicates broad unavailability across chip types
Semiconductor fab utilization >95% — no spare capacity
Maxed capacity means unable to respond to demand increases
Chip inventory <6 weeks — minimal buffer
Low inventory makes supply chain vulnerable to any disruption
Global supply chain health <40/100 — severe disruption
Supply chain breakdown causes shortages, inflation, and economic damage
Supply chain health <60/100 — elevated stress
Supply chain stress increases costs and delivery times
Shipping health index <50/100 — maritime crisis
Shipping breakdown disrupts global trade flows
Port health index <50/100 — port system failure
Port failures create massive bottlenecks in global trade
Manufacturing supply health <50/100 — production crisis
Manufacturing supply failures cause production shutdowns
Bitcoin -10% in 24h — significant crypto selloff
BTC drops >10% often precede equity market selloffs by hours or days
Bitcoin -15% in 24h — extreme crypto distress
BTC crashes >15% signal panic selling and potential contagion to traditional markets
Bitcoin -5% to -10% in 24h — early warning signal
Moderate BTC declines often serve as early warning before broader risk-off moves
Bitcoin +5% in 24h — risk-on indicator
Strong BTC gains suggest market confidence and risk appetite
Bitcoin absolute move >10% in 24h — high instability
Even upside volatility >10% signals market instability and potential reversal risk
Bitcoin absolute move <2% in 24h — low volatility, market calm
Low BTC volatility indicates stable market conditions without stress
BTC and ETH both -5% in 24h — broad crypto market stress
When both BTC and ETH decline together, indicates broad crypto sector weakness
MERVAL (USD) flat while FX moves — confirms stress is FX-driven, not equity-driven
If equities don't drop with FX stress, confirms crisis is FX/sovereign driven rather than a broad equity sell-off.
Bitcoin data unavailable — no signal evaluation possible
Informational signal indicating crypto data is not available for evaluation
流動性の高い市場データでカバーする17の地理的地域、ニュースのみの16か国、7つの合成セクターで構成されています。市場データを用いる地域は、近代の金融危機の多くで発生源または伝播経路となってきた経済圏を対象としています（1997年のアジア通貨危機、2008年の世界金融危機、2010–12年のユーロ圏危機、2018年の新興国危機、2020年のコロナ危機、2022年の英国LDI危機、2023年の米地銀危機など）。
ニュースのみの国（ボリビア、ペルー、チリ、ベネズエラ、コロンビア、エクアドル、ナイジェリア、南アフリカ、エジプト、インドネシア、ベトナム、タイ、フィリピン、ロシア、ポーランド、ウクライナ）には、流動性のある米国上場の市場代理指標がありません。そのため危機スコアは、地域別のGoogle News RSS（パニック・キーワードの密度 + センチメント + 見出しの件数）のみから算出されます。スコアの上限は市場データのある地域より低く、グローバル総合指標ではこれらの国を0.3×の重みで扱い、一つの地元ニュースの見出しがメインのゲージを左右しないようにしています。
近代の金融危機の多くが発生した国。地方銀行（KRE）、クレジット（HYG、SRLN、LQD）、VIX、オフィスREITが中核シグナルです。
銀行同盟の断層線。STOXX50Eのボラティリティ、欧州銀行株（EUFN）、周縁国のソブリン・スプレッド。
ブレグジット後はEUとは別枠。ギルト市場のストレス、ポンド（GBP）、イングランド銀行の政策、LDIに起因する市場構造上のリスク。
円キャリーはグローバルな流動性の伝達経路。日経平均ボラティリティ（VNKY）、日本国債（JGB）、日銀の政策、USD/JPY。
香港と日本を除くアジア全域。日本除くアジアETF（AAXJ）、HSBC香港（0005.HK）、ハンセン指数（HSI）、香港不動産。
半導体と輸出の先行指標。KOSPI（EWY）、KB金融グループ、サムスン電子、ウォン（KRW）。
不動産セクターと政策が主導。FXI、中国の銀行、不動産デベロッパー、人民元（CNY）の基準値。
最大の新興国経済。Nifty、銀行、ルピー（INR）、インド準備銀行（RBI）の政策。
新興国のコモディティ動向を映すバロメーター。Bovespa指数、ブラジルの銀行、レアル（BRL）、鉄鉱石との連動。
米国と結び付きの強い新興国。ペソ（MXN）、IPC指数、銀行、国境を越えた貿易への感応度。
慢性的な為替・ソブリンのストレス。ブルーチップ・スワップ・レート（CCL）、Merval指数、デフォルト確率。
通貨危機の典型例。リラ（TRY）、BIST、トルコの銀行、中央銀行の信認。
中国と連動するコモディティの代理指標。ASX、AUD、鉄鉱石、住宅市場。
石油依存に起因するソブリンのストレスと、コモディティ・ショック時のUSDペッグへの圧力。
地政学リスクの代理指標：制裁、石油供給の途絶、地域紛争の激化。
半導体の集中と台湾海峡の地政学リスク。TSMC（TSM）、TAIEX、TWD。
新興国の合成バスケット。EEM、EMB、EMHYで資本逃避の動きを捉えます。
合成セクターは、特定の国に紐付かない横断的なビューです。国境に関係なく広がるストレスの経路を、ダッシュボードで捉えられるようにします。
主要通貨ペアのストレス：DXY、キャリー通貨ペア、新興国通貨バスケット。
BTC/ETHのボラティリティ、ステーブルコインのデペッグ、暗号通貨と株式の相関レジーム。
政策の乖離、緊急措置の確率、会合日までの近さ。
原油、金、産業用金属、農産物：総合ストレス指数。
Baltic Dry指数、コンテナ輸送（SCFI）、港湾取扱量、半導体。
GDELTのトーン、イベント密度、情報源の多様性：地政学・政策のシグナル。
インフレ、雇用、成長、イールドカーブ：古典的な景気後退指標。
ダッシュボード上部に表示されるグローバルリスクレベルは、単純平均ではありません。各地域はシステム上の重要度に応じて加重されます。米国のフェーズ1とアルゼンチンのフェーズ1とでは波及の仕方が異なります。米国は世界的な資金調達の中心地ですが、アルゼンチンはそうではないからです。重みはGDPシェア、金融システムの規模、過去の伝染の頻度に基づいて静的に設定されており、region-configファイルで確認できます。
グローバルゲージは次の3つの要素を組み合わせています：
伝染ビューは、地域間のストレスを有向グラフとしてモデル化します。各エッジは、相関のベースライン、過去の危機の波及から導いたラグ（日数）、そしてその経路を活性化させる波及元の最低状態によって定義されます。たとえば、米国のフェーズ1 → アジアのフェーズ1は、約2日のラグを伴う伝播として歴史的によく知られています。
波及元の地域がその経路の最低状態に達するか、それを上回ると、経路はアクティブになります。波及先の地域も動いた場合、経路は確認済みとなります。この枠組みにより、ダッシュボードは「広がる可能性がある」と「実際に広がっている」を区別できます。伝染シミュレーションページのシミュレーションモードでは、任意の地域を手動で発火させ、時間を進めて想定される波及を確認できます。
伝染ビューは「ストレスはどこに広がるか」に答えます。協調性ビューは「地域間の関係はまだ保たれているか」、つまり相関レジームそのものが崩れていないかに答えます。総合スコアは[0,1]の範囲で、深刻度はNONE / WARNING / ELEVATED / CRITICALの4段階に分かれ、毎ティック、次の7つのサブ検出器から算出されます：
各サブスコアの要因（地域タグ、分離したペア）と総合的な診断は、ダッシュボードの協調性カードに表示されます。総合スコアは、3つの新しいブラックスワン条件（DECOUPLING、HAVEN_INVERSION、VELOCITY_BREAK）の入力にもなります。
しきい値到達の推定器。これとは別に、地域ごとの運動学ソルバー（s(t) = s0 + v·t + 0.5·a·t²）が、現在の速度と加速度のもとで各地域がいつ監視 / 発火 / 拡大のしきい値を超えるかを予測します。60ティック以内で最小の正の解を採用します。結果は「差し迫った越境」カードに表示され、今後30分以内に超える見込みがなければ自動的に非表示になります。
ニュースと地政学的なトーンはGDELTプロジェクトから取得しています。GDELTは、トーン・当事者・場所をコード化した世界の出来事を継続的に配信しています。地域ごとに、その地域の対象国で絞り込んだイベントを取得し、平均トーン（−10〜+10に正規化した尺度）を集計するとともに、イベント密度（単位時間あたりの危機関連イベント数）と情報源の多様性（同じ出来事を報じている独立したニュースソースの数。本物の話か作られた話かを見分ける代理指標）を追跡します。
ニュースのシグナルが市場シグナルより少ないポイントしか持たないのは、たいていの場合トーンが価格に遅れるためです。ただし、市場がまだ出来事を織り込んでいない地政学的なシナリオでは、ニュースのほうが早く発火します。この分離によって、ダッシュボードの誠実さが保たれます。市場は静かなのにニュースは騒がしい地域があれば、両方のチャネルが表示され、どちらに基づいて行動するかはご自身で判断できます。
パニック・キーワードとネガティブ・センチメントのカウントは、パーセンテージに正規化する前に、配信元メディアの信頼度ティアで加重されます。通信社（Reuters、Bloomberg、FT、WSJ、AP、AFP）は重み1.0、大手報道機関（BBC、CNBC、NYT、Guardian）は0.7–0.9、金融専門メディアは0.5–0.7、不明なアグリゲーターは保守的に0.3です。このティア制がなかった頃は、「危機」と騒ぎ立てる低品質なブログだらけのフィードが、Reutersの見出し10本と同じだけスコアを押し上げていました。信頼度テーブルはnews-analyzer.tsで定義されており、これが唯一の正となる定義で、news-analyzer.test.tsでテストされています。
各cronティックでは、フィードごとの結果（ok / empty / http-error / fetch-error）と記事数を記録し、/api/healthのnewsFeedsで公開しています。地域カードが更新されていないように見える場合は、このエンドポイントで上流のRSS自体が失敗しているかどうかを確認できます。Googleのレート制限や地域的なブロックの診断に役立ちます。
ダッシュボードで大規模言語モデルを使用している箇所は2つあります：
モデルは複数プロバイダーのフォールバック・チェーンで実行されます。まずGroq (Llama 3.3 70B Versatile)、次にCerebras (Llama 3.3 70B)、その次がOpenRouterです。OpenRouterのメインモデルはDeepSeek R1 (deepseek-r1:free)で、さらにQwen3 235B (thinking)とLlama 3.3 70B Instructがフォールバックとして控えています。レート制限やエラーが発生すると、チェーンは自動的に次のプロバイダーまたはモデルに切り替わるため、無料枠の範囲内でブリーフの生成が続きます。すべてのプロンプトは2つの方法で制約されています。システムプロンプトは数値の捏造を禁じ、ユーザープロンプトにはダッシュボードの現在のシグナル群が構造化された入力として含まれます。モデルは要約と説明を行うだけで、スコアの算出、新しいデータの取得、シグナルが示す範囲を超えた予測は行いません。
AIが生成したテキストは、それでも誤ることがあります。的外れなシグナルを強調したり、過度に断定的な表現を用いたり、しきい値を誤解したりする可能性があります。AIブリーフは数値の上に重ねた要約レイヤーとして扱い、ご自身で数値を読む代わりにはしないでください。
Yahoo Finance
株式、クレジット、ETF、ボラティリティの価格データ。市場ベースのすべてのシグナルの基盤です。
The GDELT Project
世界のニューストーンと地政学イベントのストリーム。インテリジェンス地域とニュース系カテゴリーのシグナルに使用しています。
Polymarket
危機に関連する出来事について、予測市場で形成されたクラウドソースの確率。「予測市場」ページに表示しています。
中央銀行の公表資料
FRB、ECB、日銀、英中銀、中国人民銀行、スイス国立銀行、豪準備銀行、韓国銀行など：政策金利、会合日程、緊急オペレーション。
FRED (St. Louis Fed)
マクロ系列：CPI、失業率、イールドカーブ、MACROセクター向けの景気後退指標。
CNN Fear & Greed, Google Trends, VIX
「センチメント」ページで使用する複合センチメント指標。
海運指数（Baltic Dry、SCFI）
サプライチェーンのシグナル：実体経済のストレスを映す代理指標としての運賃。
可能な限りすべてのページでデータソースを明記し、各ソースは公開されている利用規約の範囲内で使用しています。権利者の方で修正が必要な箇所にお気づきの場合は、お問い合わせページからご連絡ください。
スコアリング・システムの価値は、何を見逃しているかについてどれだけ正直であるかで決まります。以下は、このダッシュボードが苦手とすること、またはまったくできないことです：
このダッシュボードは、市場やニュースにすでに表れているストレスを体系的に監視するツールとしてご利用ください。予測ではなく、世界のリスクを網羅的に示すものでもありません。
日本をASIAから分離しました。ASIAは「アジア太平洋（日本を除く）」となり、香港／ハンセン指数の代理指標（AAXJ、0005.HK、HSI）を用います。日経平均ボラティリティ指標（vnky）のソースは日本（JP）のみとなりました。ソウルの表記を製品全体で「韓国」に統一しました。
この方法論ページを完全なルール集として公開しました。シグナル・カタログはプロジェクトのシグナル用語集から直接生成されるようになり、ドキュメントとエンジンの内容が食い違うことはありません。
「予測」ページと「予測市場」ページを別々の概念として追加しました（社内のML予測と外部の予測市場）。
ご質問、訂正、追加すべきシグナルのご提案などがありましたら、お問い合わせページからご連絡ください。方法論は随時更新されるドキュメントであり、シグナルの追加・廃止やしきい値の変更があるたびに更新しています。