· UTC
Global Crisis Brief — August 4, 2026
On August 4, 2026, Russia ended the day as the most stressed region, closing at 19 of 31 points in the Phase 2 (Critical) state.
Signal triggers: 93 · Clears: 89 · State changes: 38 · Regions tracked: 39
AI commentary
09:00 UTC update
The current market status is characterized by elevated stress levels, with multiple regions and sectors triggering crisis alerts. The Stress Level is ELEVATED. Key risks include:
* Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the US, UK, and KR, with crisis themes such as WAR, MILITARY, and ATTACK
* Oil price volatility, with the GCC region experiencing an oil shock
* Financial instability, with banks in CN and JP experiencing drawdowns
* Supply chain disruptions, with critical materials at risk
Recommended actions:
* Monitor market developments closely, particularly in regions with high crisis theme detection
* Diversify portfolios to mitigate risks associated with oil price volatility and financial instability
* Consider hedging strategies to protect against potential supply chain disruptions
21:01 UTC update
The current market status is generally stable, with most regions indicating a "NORMAL" state. However, there are some concerns, particularly in the areas of news sentiment and central bank actions. The stress level is ELEVATED due to the presence of various crisis themes, such as war, sanctions, and missile threats.
Key Risks:
* Geopolitical tensions and potential military conflicts
* Economic instability and market volatility
* Central bank actions and monetary policy changes
* Commodity price fluctuations, particularly oil and copper
Recommended Actions:
* Monitor news sentiment and market trends closely
* Diversify investment portfolios to minimize risk
* Consider hedging strategies to protect against potential losses
* Stay informed about central bank actions and monetary policy changes
Written by CrisisBoard's scheduled AI analysis on the day, from the same data, and kept as published. It may contain errors.
How each region closed
| Region | Open | Day high | Close | State at close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia | 19 | 19 | 19/31 | Phase 2 (Critical) |
| Ukraine | 19 | 19 | 19/31 | Phase 2 (Critical) |
| Bolivia | 19 | 19 | 16/31 | Phase 2 (Critical) |
| News Analysis | 16 | 19 | 15/44 | Phase 2 (Critical) |
| Peru | 10 | 10 | 10/31 | Phase 2 (Critical) |
| Vietnam | 10 | 10 | 10/31 | Phase 2 (Critical) |
| Egypt | 7 | 7 | 7/31 | Phase 1 (Elevated) |
| Poland | 3 | 7 | 7/31 | Phase 1 (Elevated) |
| Central Banks | 12 | 12 | 12/57 | Phase 1 (Elevated) |
| South Korea | 5 | 5 | 5/15 | Monitor |
| Turkey | 7 | 7 | 4/14 | Monitor |
| Iran | 5 | 6 | 5/18 | Monitor |
| Commodities | 10 | 13 | 10/80 | Monitor |
| Chile | 3 | 3 | 3/31 | Monitor |
| Venezuela | 3 | 3 | 3/31 | Monitor |
| Colombia | 3 | 3 | 3/31 | Monitor |
| Ecuador | 3 | 3 | 3/31 | Monitor |
| Nigeria | 3 | 3 | 3/31 | Monitor |
| South Africa | 3 | 3 | 3/31 | Monitor |
| Indonesia | 3 | 3 | 3/31 | Monitor |
| Thailand | 3 | 3 | 3/31 | Monitor |
| Philippines | 3 | 3 | 3/31 | Monitor |
| Argentina | 2 | 7 | 5/12 | Normal |
| GCC/Middle East | 3 | 3 | 3/13 | Normal |
| Taiwan | 1 | 3 | 3/14 | Normal |
| United States | 8 | 8 | 6/32 | Normal |
| Asia | 2 | 5 | 3/16 | Normal |
| Japan | 4 | 5 | 3/17 | Normal |
| Brazil | 0 | 2 | 2/12 | Normal |
| China | 0 | 4 | 2/16 | Normal |
| United Kingdom | 3 | 3 | 2/18 | Normal |
| Supply Chain | 7 | 7 | 7/89 | Normal |
| Forex | 2 | 2 | 2/26 | Normal |
| Europe | 0 | 2 | 0/19 | Normal |
| India | 0 | 0 | 0/10 | Normal |
| Australia | 0 | 0 | 0/10 | Normal |
| Emerging Markets | 0 | 0 | 0/18 | Normal |
| Mexico | 0 | 0 | 0/9 | Normal |
| Economic Indicators | 0 | 0 | 0/27 | Normal |
Crisis-state changes
- 00:14Turkey: Phase 1 (Elevated) → Monitor
- 00:30Iran: Monitor → Normal
- 01:02Iran: Normal → Monitor
- 01:18Iran: Monitor → Normal
- 01:34Iran: Normal → Monitor
- 01:34Turkey: Monitor → Phase 1 (Elevated)
- 01:50Turkey: Phase 1 (Elevated) → Normal
- 02:38Iran: Monitor → Normal
- 03:10Iran: Normal → Monitor
- 03:26Iran: Monitor → Normal
- 03:42Iran: Normal → Monitor
- 05:02Iran: Monitor → Normal
- 05:34Iran: Normal → Monitor
- 05:39United States: Monitor → Normal
- 05:40United States: Normal → Monitor
- 06:06Iran: Monitor → Normal
- 08:46Iran: Normal → Monitor
- 09:02Iran: Monitor → Normal
- 09:18Iran: Normal → Monitor
- 13:18Turkey: Normal → Monitor
- 13:31Commodities: Monitor → Normal
- 13:32Commodities: Normal → Monitor
- 13:40Japan: Normal → Monitor
- 13:43United States: Monitor → Normal
- 14:06Turkey: Monitor → Normal
- 14:10Iran: Monitor → Phase 1 (Elevated)
- 14:14Iran: Phase 1 (Elevated) → Monitor
- 15:42Turkey: Normal → Monitor
- 15:59Turkey: Monitor → Normal
- 16:14Turkey: Normal → Monitor
- 17:51Turkey: Monitor → Normal
- 18:34Poland: Monitor → Phase 1 (Elevated)
- 20:15Turkey: Normal → Monitor
- 20:31Turkey: Monitor → Normal
- 20:39Japan: Monitor → Normal
- 22:23Turkey: Normal → Monitor
- 23:00Japan: Normal → Monitor
- 23:01Japan: Monitor → Normal
Signals that triggered
| Signal | Region | Points | First triggered (UTC) |
|---|---|---|---|
| News Panic Surge | News Analysis | 4 | 00:17 |
| News Panic Surge | Poland | 4 | 18:34 |
| Crisis News Frequency Spike | Ukraine | 3 | 01:02 |
| Turkey Banks Drawdown | Turkey | 3 | 03:21 |
| Regional Crisis Concentration | News Analysis | 3 | 05:21 |
| Oil Price Spike | Commodities | 3 | 09:18 |
| Copper Price Spike | Commodities | 3 | 13:32 |
| Futures divergence | Asia | 3 | 16:25 |
| Crisis News Frequency Spike | Bolivia | 3 | 20:11 |
| Japan Banks Drawdown | Japan | 2 | 00:20 |
| Asia Financials Drawdown | Asia | 2 | 01:16 |
| China Banks Drawdown | China | 2 | 06:30 |
| Argentine FX Stress | Argentina | 2 | 13:32 |
| Brazil Banks Drawdown | Brazil | 2 | 18:11 |
| Argentine Banks Drawdown | Argentina | 2 | 18:20 |
| STOXX50E Realized Vol Velocity Spike | Europe | 2 | 22:01 |
| Fx stress | Japan | 2 | 23:00 |
| Japan Volatility Elevated | Japan | 1 | 13:40 |
| Argentina Volatility Elevated | Argentina | 1 | 13:51 |