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GCC / Middle East

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刚刚
NORMAL
危机评分2.0/15.0
KSA Vol
12.1
信号
2/7
安全机制
正常
失效因素
0/0
操作
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What's Happening

1 signalfiring · 2.0/15.0 pts
3 points away from escalating to MONITOR. Key driver: GCC_intel_civil_unrest in Other.
Other2pts
+2
GCC_intel_civil_unrest2.00

符号

Saudi ETF↓
KSA
$36.09
2d
-2.2%
5d
-0.0%
1m
-5.6%
3m
0.0%
1y
0.0%
RVol
2.0
Saudi Banks↓
1120.SR
$62.30
2d
+0.2%
5d
-0.2%
1m
-5.2%
3m
0.0%
1y
0.0%
RVol
0.6
Oil↑
USO
$147.65
2d
+1.9%
5d
-1.6%
1m
-6.8%
3m
0.0%
1y
0.0%
RVol
0.8
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Signals

Score: 2.0/15.0|Monitor: 5Trigger: 7Escalate: 9
Triggered (1)
GCC_intel_civil_unrest
2.0+2
Checks Passing (1)
-0.0OK
Inactive (5)
-0.2+0
GCC_oil_shock
-1.6+0
GCC_sovereign_stress
0.8+0
-0.0+0
12.1+0
Signal Contribution
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该地区的评分方式

当条件成立时,下方每个信号都会为该地区的危机评分加分。总分依据上方所示阈值对应到危机状态。完整规则见方法论页面。

信号与金融工具的定义以英文显示,与规则文件中的原文一致。

信号

GCC Banks Drawdown+3 分
Saudi Arabia ETF (KSA) banks component -8% in 5 days — GCC banking stress为何重要: GCC banks are heavily exposed to oil revenue and sovereign wealth; drawdowns signal fiscal stress
GCC Credit Stress+2 分
EM bond proxy (EMB) underperforming — GCC credit deterioration为何重要: Credit stress in GCC signals oil-related fiscal concerns and sovereign risk
GCC Credit Drawdown+2 分
GCC credit proxy -5% in 5 days — broad credit deterioration为何重要: Sustained credit drawdown indicates deepening financial stress in GCC
GCC Market Drawdown+2 分
Saudi Arabia ETF (KSA) -5% in 5 days — broad GCC equity weakness为何重要: Broad GCC equity weakness confirms stress is affecting the wider regional market
GCC FX Stress+2 分
USD peg pressure detected — potential devaluation risk为何重要: GCC currencies are pegged to USD; stress here signals extreme fiscal pressure
GCC Volatility Elevated+1 分
GCC market volatility above 35 — elevated uncertainty为何重要: Elevated volatility indicates market uncertainty, often oil-driven
GCC Market Stable+0 分
Saudi Arabia ETF (KSA) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off为何重要: Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to oil sector
GCC Real Estate Drawdown+2 分
Gulf real estate -10% in 5 days — property sector stress为何重要: GCC real estate is heavily tied to oil revenue and sovereign spending
GCC Market Stable+0 分
Saudi Arabia ETF (KSA) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off为何重要: Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to oil sector

跟踪的金融工具

MKT — iShares MSCI Saudi Arabia ETF (KSA)
Saudi Arabia is the GCC's largest economy. Equity performance is tightly correlated with oil prices and Vision 2030 progress.平稳 5d > -1% · 关注 5d -1% to -5% · 承压 5d < -8%
BANK — Al Rajhi Bank (1120.SR)
GCC banks are heavily exposed to oil revenue and sovereign wealth. Drawdowns signal fiscal stress and potential peg pressure.平稳 5d > -3% · 关注 5d -3% to -8% · 承压 5d < -8%
SVRN — GCC Sovereign Bond Proxy (EMB component)
GCC sovereign credit. Oil-dependent fiscal budgets mean sovereign risk rises sharply when oil drops.平稳 5d > -1% · 关注 5d -1% to -3% · 承压 5d < -3%
OIL — Crude Oil (WTI/Brent)
Oil is the lifeblood of GCC economies. A crash directly impacts fiscal budgets, sovereign wealth, and currency pegs.平稳 5d > -3% · 关注 5d -3% to -12% · 承压 5d < -12%
FX — GCC Currency Peg Proxy
GCC currencies are pegged to USD. Any stress here signals extreme fiscal pressure and potential devaluation risk.平稳 Peg stable · 关注 Forward rates widening · 承压 Peg under pressure
危机监控系统 — GCC / Middle East 详情
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