CrisisBoard 如何将市场、宏观和新闻原始数据转化为每个地区的危机评分和全球风险等级。本页是完整、可审计的规则手册。
最后更新: 2026-04-20 · 259 信号已定义
几乎所有商业危机仪表板都是黑箱：模型吐出一个分数，而模型本身被供应商作为专有技术严加保护。模型正确时这并无不妥，一旦出错便毫无用处——您无法质疑一个看不到内部逻辑的数字。
CrisisBoard 反其道而行之。每一个计入地区评分的信号，都是一条有名称、公开发布的规则，具有固定的阈值、明确的数据来源和固定的分值。评分逻辑是确定性的：同一天的相同输入，永远得出相同的评分。没有学习，没有拟合，也没有在版本之间悄然变动的权重。
这带来两个结果。第一，仪表板是可以被证伪的——您可以不认同某个具体阈值并据理反驳，因为阈值是公开可见的。第二，它迫使我们坦承自身的未知：如果没有任何具名信号捕捉到某件事，评分就看不见它。这是特性，而非缺陷。一个刚刚发生政变、而我们又没有政治风险信号的地区显示 3/20，并不是在预测这场政变无关紧要——而是在提醒我们，信号集并不完整。
机器学习自有其用武之地，我们也将其用于评分以外的任务（例如生成自然语言简报、对异常进行聚类）。但每张地区卡片顶部的数字，始终是各条可见规则之和。
每个地区根据其总分被归入五种状态之一。分数区间因地区而异——美国这样的发达市场与阿根廷这样的新兴市场使用不同的阈值，因为两者的基础波动率不同。下方所示分数区间为旗舰地区美国的阈值（监视 8、触发 10、升级 12）；其他地区会上调或下调这些数值，各地区的确切临界值见 region-config 文件。
未检测到明显压力。仅有市场日常波动带来的噪音和个别资产的孤立变动。无需采取行动。
早期预警指标开始集中出现。少数微弱但真实的信号同时触发——银行走软、信用利差扩大、波动率逐步攀升。值得关注，但尚不必行动。
压力已获确认。多个信号类别同时触发。从历史上看，处于阶段1的地区在数天至数周内进一步升级的概率显著上升。
阶段1的压力得到波动率飙升的确认。当评分已处于触发区间，且该地区的波动率代理指标（美国为 VIX）突破 28 时触发——市场不只是承压，而是在剧烈震荡。历史上，这是通往阶段2的快车道。
系统性错位。多个崩溃信号获得确认——流动性紧张、汇率错位、信用断裂。这就是“危机真的来了”的状态。
状态切换带有滞后机制：进入阶段1的地区不会因为某一天市场回暖就退回正常。这能避免状态随噪音频繁跳动，也符合危机的实际演变方式——压力先累积，再释放。
每个信号占一行。各列依次为：名称 / 金融工具 / 阈值 / 分值 / 为何重要。分值累加构成该地区的总分。分值越高，表示该信号在历史上对真实危机的预测力越强，而非我们认为它在政治上更重要。
下方列表直接由项目的信号词汇表文件生成——出现在这里的信号，都在引擎中实际运行；未列出的信号，则未被使用。
下方信号定义以英文列出，与规则文件中的原文完全一致。
Argentine bank ADRs (GGAL, BMA, SUPV) -12% in 5 days — banking sector stress
Local banks (ADRs) show stress from FX and sovereign issues. These are the most liquid proxies for Argentine financial system health.
China Large-Cap (FXI) banks component -8% in 5 days — Chinese banking stress
Chinese bank stocks are first to show stress from property/credit issues in China's financial system
UK banks (BARC, LLOY) -8% in 5 days — UK banking sector stress
UK banks are highly leveraged to property and credit markets; drawdowns signal systemic risk
Brazilian banks (ITUB, BBD) -8% in 5 days — banking sector stress
Brazilian banks are exposed to sovereign and FX risk; drawdowns signal systemic concerns
Indian banks (IBN, HDB) -8% in 5 days — banking sector stress
Indian banks are key indicators of domestic financial health and NPA risk
Saudi Arabia ETF (KSA) banks component -8% in 5 days — GCC banking stress
GCC banks are heavily exposed to oil revenue and sovereign wealth; drawdowns signal fiscal stress
Australian banks (CBA) -8% in 5 days — banking sector stress
Australian banks are heavily exposed to property market; drawdowns signal housing/credit risk
Turkish banks proxy -8% in 5 days — banking sector stress
Turkish banks are exposed to lira depreciation and high inflation; drawdowns signal systemic risk
Korean banks (KB, SHG) -8% in 5 days — banking sector stress
Korean banks are exposed to household debt and chaebol risk; drawdowns signal systemic concerns
US Regional Banks (KRE) -8% in 5 days — banking sector stress
Regional banks are first to show stress in financial system issues
Euro Banks Index (SX7E) -8% in 5 days — EU banking stress
European banks are first to show stress in EU financial system
Asia Financials -8% in 5 days — Asian banking stress
Asian financials are first to show stress in regional financial system
Argentine bank ADRs (GGAL, BMA, SUPV) -8% in 5 days — banking stress
Local banks (ADRs) show stress from FX and sovereign issues
Coinbase (COIN) -15% in 5 days — exchange distress
Exchange stress precedes broader crypto crisis and liquidity issues
Japanese banks (MUFG, SMFG) -8% in 5 days — banking stress
Japanese bank stress signals JGB or property market concerns
Mexican banks (BSMX) -8% in 5 days — banking stress
Mexican bank stress signals sovereign or FX concerns
Taiwan banks (Cathay, Fubon) -8% in 5 days — banking stress
Taiwan bank stress signals property or geopolitical concerns
European High Yield (EHYG) underperforms Investment Grade (EIGB) — credit stress
HY underperforming IG indicates EU credit market stress and risk aversion
China Bond ETF (CBON) -3% in 3 days — credit market deterioration
Chinese credit stress often precedes broader EM contagion and signals tightening financial conditions
China credit proxy -5% in 5 days — broad credit deterioration
Sustained credit drawdown indicates deepening financial stress in China
UK gilts (IGLT) underperforming — credit market deterioration
Gilt stress (as seen in 2022 LDI crisis) can cascade through pension funds and banks
UK credit proxy -5% in 5 days — broad credit deterioration
Sustained credit drawdown indicates deepening financial stress in the UK
EM bond proxy (EMB) underperforming — Brazilian credit deterioration
Credit stress in Brazil often precedes broader EM contagion
Brazil credit proxy -5% in 5 days — broad credit deterioration
Sustained credit drawdown indicates deepening financial stress in Brazil
India bond proxy (IGIB) underperforming — credit deterioration
Credit stress in India signals tightening financial conditions and potential NPA issues
India credit proxy -5% in 5 days — broad credit deterioration
Sustained credit drawdown indicates deepening financial stress in India
EM bond proxy (EMB) underperforming — GCC credit deterioration
Credit stress in GCC signals oil-related fiscal concerns and sovereign risk
GCC credit proxy -5% in 5 days — broad credit deterioration
Sustained credit drawdown indicates deepening financial stress in GCC
Australian bonds (IAF) underperforming — credit deterioration
Credit stress in Australia signals tightening conditions and potential mortgage stress
Australia credit proxy -5% in 5 days — broad credit deterioration
Sustained credit drawdown indicates deepening financial stress in Australia
EM bond proxy (EMB) underperforming — Turkish credit deterioration
Credit stress in Turkey signals sovereign risk and potential lira crisis
Turkey credit proxy -5% in 5 days — broad credit deterioration
Sustained credit drawdown indicates deepening financial stress in Turkey
South Korea ETF (EWY) credit component underperforming — credit deterioration
Credit stress in Korea signals tightening conditions and potential tech sector contagion
South Korea credit proxy -5% in 5 days — broad credit deterioration
Sustained credit drawdown indicates deepening financial stress in Korea
EM sovereign bonds (EMB) underperforming — broad EM credit deterioration
EM credit stress signals rising default risk and capital flight from developing markets
EM credit proxy -5% in 5 days — broad credit deterioration
Sustained EM credit drawdown indicates deepening financial stress across emerging markets
Senior Loans (SRLN) underperform High Yield (HYG) — credit quality deterioration
Senior loans should be safer than HY bonds. Underperformance signals credit stress
US credit proxy -5% in 5 days — broad credit deterioration
Sustained credit drawdown indicates deepening financial stress in the US
EU credit proxy -5% in 5 days — broad credit deterioration
Sustained credit drawdown indicates deepening financial stress in Europe
Asia High Yield underperforms Investment Grade — credit deterioration
HY underperforming IG indicates Asian credit market stress and risk aversion
Asia credit proxy -5% in 5 days — broad credit deterioration
Sustained credit drawdown indicates deepening financial stress in Asia
Argentine sovereign bonds underperform — credit deterioration
Argentine credit stress signals rising default or restructuring risk
Argentine credit proxy -5% in 5 days — broad credit deterioration
Sustained credit drawdown indicates deepening financial stress in Argentina
China Large-Cap (FXI) -5% in 5 days — broad Chinese equity weakness
Broad equity weakness confirms stress is affecting the wider Chinese market
China market volatility above 35 — elevated uncertainty
Elevated volatility indicates market uncertainty and potential for sharp moves
China Large-Cap (FXI) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to specific sectors
FTSE 100 -5% in 5 days — broad UK equity weakness
Broad UK equity weakness confirms stress is affecting the wider market
UK market volatility above 25 — elevated uncertainty
Elevated volatility indicates market uncertainty and potential for sharp moves
FTSE 100 holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to specific sectors
Brazil ETF (EWZ) -5% in 5 days — broad Brazilian equity weakness
Broad equity weakness confirms stress is affecting the wider Brazilian market
Brazil market volatility above 35 — elevated uncertainty
Elevated volatility indicates market uncertainty and potential for sharp moves
Brazil ETF (EWZ) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to specific sectors
India ETF (INDA) -5% in 5 days — broad Indian equity weakness
Broad equity weakness confirms stress is affecting the wider Indian market
India market volatility above 35 — elevated uncertainty
Elevated volatility indicates market uncertainty and potential for sharp moves
India ETF (INDA) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to specific sectors
Saudi Arabia ETF (KSA) -5% in 5 days — broad GCC equity weakness
Broad GCC equity weakness confirms stress is affecting the wider regional market
GCC market volatility above 35 — elevated uncertainty
Elevated volatility indicates market uncertainty, often oil-driven
Saudi Arabia ETF (KSA) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to oil sector
ASX 200 -5% in 5 days — broad Australian equity weakness
Broad equity weakness confirms stress is affecting the wider Australian market
Australian market volatility above 25 — elevated uncertainty
Elevated volatility indicates market uncertainty and potential for sharp moves
ASX 200 holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to specific sectors
Turkey ETF (TUR) -5% in 5 days — broad Turkish equity weakness
Broad equity weakness confirms stress is affecting the wider Turkish market
Turkish market volatility above 35 — elevated uncertainty
Elevated volatility indicates market uncertainty, often FX-driven in Turkey
Turkey ETF (TUR) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to FX/rates
South Korea ETF (EWY) -5% in 5 days — broad Korean equity weakness
Broad equity weakness confirms stress is affecting the wider Korean market
Korean market volatility above 35 — elevated uncertainty
Elevated volatility indicates market uncertainty, often tech/semiconductor driven
South Korea ETF (EWY) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to specific sectors
EM ETF (EEM) -5% in 5 days — broad emerging market equity weakness
Broad EM equity weakness confirms stress is systemic across emerging markets
Emerging market volatility above 35 — elevated uncertainty
Elevated EM volatility indicates broad uncertainty and potential for capital flight
EM ETF (EEM) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to specific countries
S&P 500 (SPY) -5% in 5 days — broad market weakness
Equity weakness confirms stress is affecting broader market
VIX above 25 — elevated market fear
Elevated VIX indicates market uncertainty and potential for sharp moves
S&P 500 (SPY) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to specific sectors
Euro Stoxx 50 (STOXX50E) -5% in 5 days — broad EU equity weakness
EU equity weakness confirms stress is affecting broader European market
STOXX50E Realized Vol above 25 — elevated EU market fear
Elevated STOXX50E Realized Vol indicates EU market uncertainty and potential for sharp moves
Euro Stoxx 50 holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to specific sectors
MSCI Asia-Pacific -5% in 5 days — broad Asian equity weakness
Regional equity weakness confirms stress is affecting broader Asian market
Hang Seng vol above 25 — elevated Asian market fear
Elevated regional volatility indicates market uncertainty and potential for sharp moves
MSCI Asia-Pacific holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to specific countries
MSCI Argentina ETF (ARGT) -5% in 5 days — broad Argentine equity weakness
Broad equity weakness confirms stress is affecting the wider Argentine market
Argentina market volatility above 35 — elevated uncertainty
Elevated volatility indicates market uncertainty, often FX-driven in Argentina
MSCI Argentina ETF (ARGT) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to FX/sovereign
China Large-Cap (FXI) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to specific sectors
FTSE 100 holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to specific sectors
Brazil ETF (EWZ) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to specific sectors
India ETF (INDA) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to specific sectors
Saudi Arabia ETF (KSA) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to oil sector
ASX 200 holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to specific sectors
Turkey ETF (TUR) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to FX/rates
South Korea ETF (EWY) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to specific sectors
EM ETF (EEM) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to specific countries
Bitcoin (BTC-USD) -5% in 5 days — crypto market weakness
Bitcoin drawdowns often precede broader crypto market sell-offs
Ethereum (ETH-USD) -12% in 5 days — altcoin stress
ETH weakness signals altcoin market stress and potential DeFi contagion
Bitcoin volatility above 25 — elevated uncertainty
Elevated volatility indicates market uncertainty and potential for sharp moves
Bitcoin (BTC-USD) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to specific tokens
DXY volatility above 25 — elevated FX uncertainty
Elevated FX volatility indicates currency market uncertainty
Japan ETF (EWJ) -5% in 5 days — broad Japanese equity weakness
Broad equity weakness confirms stress affecting wider Japanese market
Japanese market volatility above 25 — elevated uncertainty
Elevated volatility indicates Japanese market uncertainty
Japan ETF (EWJ) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — stress may be contained to specific sectors
Mexico ETF (EWW) -5% in 5 days — broad Mexican equity weakness
Broad equity weakness confirms stress affecting wider Mexican market
Mexican market volatility above 35 — elevated uncertainty
Elevated volatility indicates Mexican market uncertainty
Mexico ETF (EWW) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — stress may be contained to specific sectors
TSMC (TSM) -12% in 5 days — semiconductor supply chain risk
TSMC weakness signals semiconductor supply chain stress
Taiwan ETF (EWT) -5% in 5 days — broad Taiwanese equity weakness
Broad equity weakness confirms stress affecting wider Taiwan market
Taiwan market volatility above 35 — elevated uncertainty
Elevated volatility indicates Taiwan market uncertainty, often geopolitical
Taiwan ETF (EWT) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — stress may be contained to specific sectors
Contado con Liquidación (CCL) +6% in 3 days — primary FX stress indicator
CCL (contado con liquidación) is the main FX stress indicator for Argentina. A sharp rise means the peso is weakening rapidly against the dollar in the parallel market.
Argentine sovereign bonds (GD30) underperform US IG — sovereign risk rising
Argentine sovereign bonds underperforming US IG indicates the market is pricing in higher default or restructuring risk for Argentina.
CNY/USD move >3% in 3 days — yuan depreciation pressure
Rapid yuan weakening signals capital flight and potential PBOC intervention risk
GBP/USD move >3% in 3 days — sterling depreciation pressure
Rapid sterling weakening signals loss of confidence in UK economy/fiscal policy
BRL/USD move >3% in 3 days — real depreciation pressure
Rapid real weakening signals capital flight and potential central bank intervention
INR/USD move >3% in 3 days — rupee depreciation pressure
Rapid rupee weakening signals capital outflows and potential RBI intervention
USD peg pressure detected — potential devaluation risk
GCC currencies are pegged to USD; stress here signals extreme fiscal pressure
AUD/USD move >3% in 3 days — Aussie dollar depreciation pressure
Rapid AUD weakening signals commodity downturn and potential capital outflows
TRY/USD move >3% in 3 days — lira depreciation pressure
Rapid lira weakening signals loss of confidence and potential central bank policy failure
KRW/USD move >3% in 3 days — won depreciation pressure
Rapid won weakening signals capital outflows and potential BoK intervention
USD strength (UUP) >3% in 3 days — broad EM currency pressure
Dollar strength creates EM FX stress, increasing USD-denominated debt burden
USD index move >3% in 3 days — dollar volatility
Rapid dollar moves signal global risk-off or flight to safety dynamics
EUR/USD move >3% in 3 days — euro volatility
Rapid euro moves signal ECB policy concerns or eurozone fragmentation risk
Asian currency basket move >3% in 3 days — regional FX pressure
Rapid Asian currency weakening signals capital flight from the region
FX proxy move >3% in 3 days — peso depreciation pressure
Rapid FX moves signal capital flight and parallel market stress
Dollar Index strength >3% — strong USD indicates global stress
Strong USD typically signals flight to safety and global risk aversion
Dollar Index strength >5% — extreme USD demand
Extreme dollar strength indicates severe global financial stress
Emerging market FX stress >4% — EM currency weakness
EM FX stress signals capital flight from developing markets
USD/JPY down >2% — yen strengthening (risk-off)
Yen strength indicates flight to safety and risk aversion
Cross-currency volatility >3% — FX market dislocation
High cross-currency volatility signals FX market stress
EUR/USD down >3% in 5 days — euro weakness
Euro weakness signals eurozone stress or dollar strength
GBP/USD down >3% in 5 days — pound weakness
Pound weakness signals UK economic concerns or dollar strength
USD/CNY up >2% — yuan depreciation pressure
Yuan weakness signals China FX pressure and potential PBOC intervention
USD/MXN up >4% — peso weakness (EM bellwether)
Peso is most liquid EM currency; weakness signals broader EM stress
2+ major pairs with >2% 5d moves — widespread FX stress
Multiple major pairs stressed indicates systemic FX market dislocation
MXN/USD move >3% in 3 days — peso depreciation pressure
Peso is most liquid EM currency; weakness signals EM stress
China Overseas Land (0688.HK) -5% in 5 days — property sector stress
China's property sector is a key systemic risk; drawdowns signal potential contagion to banks and broader economy
UK property (BLND) -10% in 5 days — commercial real estate stress
UK commercial property is a key stress indicator, especially post-Brexit and with rising rates
Australian Property ETF (VAP.AX) -5% in 5 days — property sector stress
Australian property is a key systemic risk given high household debt levels
Office REITs (VNO, SLG, BXP) -5% in 5 days — commercial real estate stress
Office REITs are canaries in coal mine for credit/liquidity issues
EU Real Estate (EQRE) -10% in 5 days — European property stress
European real estate stress can cascade through banks and pension funds
Wharf Real Estate (1997.HK) -5% in 5 days — Asian property stress
HK developers are canaries in coal mine for Asian property/credit issues
Argentine real estate (IRSA, CRESY) -10% in 5 days — property stress
Argentine real estate stress often accompanies FX and sovereign crises
China Overseas Land (0688.HK) -5% in 5 days — property sector stress
China's property sector is a key systemic risk; drawdowns signal potential contagion
UK property (BLND) -10% in 5 days — commercial real estate stress
UK commercial property is a key stress indicator, especially post-Brexit
Brazil REITs -10% in 5 days — property sector stress
Brazilian real estate stress often accompanies rate hikes and credit tightening
India REITs -10% in 5 days — property sector stress
Indian real estate stress signals potential NPA issues in banking sector
Gulf real estate -10% in 5 days — property sector stress
GCC real estate is heavily tied to oil revenue and sovereign spending
Turkish REITs -10% in 5 days — property sector stress
Turkish real estate stress often accompanies lira depreciation and rate hikes
South Korea REITs proxy -10% in 5 days — property sector stress
Korean real estate stress signals household debt concerns and potential banking contagion
EM real estate proxy -10% in 5 days — broad EM property stress
EM real estate stress signals broad financial tightening across developing markets
T-Bills (BIL) price up + volume ≥2× average — investors hiding in safety
Investors hiding in T-Bills = expecting market stress - core thesis pillar
EU Money Market (CSH2.PA) price up + volume ≥2× average — investors hiding in safety
Investors hiding in EU money markets = expecting European market stress - core thesis pillar
VIX rising faster than 2%/minute — panic acceleration
Rapid VIX acceleration indicates sudden fear spike even before absolute thresholds hit
Regional banks (KRE) dropping faster than 1.5%/minute — rapid banking stress
Sudden banking sector drops indicate liquidity or confidence crisis developing
High Yield (HYG) dropping faster than 0.8%/minute — credit spread widening acceleration
Rapid credit selloffs signal flight to quality before spreads hit critical levels
STOXX50E Realized Vol rising faster than 2%/minute — European panic acceleration
Rapid European volatility spikes indicate sudden stress in euro markets
European banks (SX7E) dropping faster than 1.5%/minute — rapid banking stress
Sudden EU banking drops indicate systemic euro-area financial stress
European High Yield (EHYG) dropping faster than 0.8%/minute — credit stress acceleration
Rapid euro credit selloffs precede broader European financial stress
ARS dropping faster than 1%/minute — currency crisis acceleration
Rapid peso drops indicate loss of confidence and capital flight
50%+ of regions rising simultaneously (5+ pts) — contagion risk
Synchronized rapid deterioration across regions signals systemic contagion
>20% of news contains crisis keywords — media panic
High panic keyword percentage indicates widespread crisis coverage
>40% of news is crisis-related — extreme media alarm
Majority crisis coverage signals major unfolding events
>60% of news has negative sentiment — pessimism surge
Widespread negative sentiment reflects deteriorating conditions
>80% of news negative — overwhelming pessimism
Extreme negativity indicates severe crisis or panic
5+ crisis articles in 30 minutes — breaking crisis
High-frequency crisis news indicates rapidly developing situation
Single region >30% of crisis articles — regional focus
Geographic concentration indicates specific regional crisis
Crisis keywords in 3+ regions simultaneously — contagion
Multi-region crises indicate contagion or coordinated events
>20% global keywords + >30% panic — systemic global event
Global crisis coverage indicates systemic worldwide emergency
<10 unique sources with >50 articles — low source diversity
Echo chambers suggest limited independent verification of news
Very recent crisis news (<30 min avg) with high panic — breaking event
Fresh panic news indicates new crisis developments
Crisis news >2hrs old but still high panic — ongoing crisis
Sustained coverage indicates crisis is not resolving quickly
Federal Funds Rate ≥4.5% — restrictive monetary policy territory
Elevated rates above 4.5% indicate restrictive policy that slows growth and increases recession risk
Federal Funds Rate ≥5.5% — crisis-risk zone
Rates above 5.5% historically precede recessions (2000 dot-com, 2007 pre-GFC)
US Treasury 3M/10Y spread inverted — recession warning
Inverted yield curve has preceded every US recession since 1950s. Bond market pricing recession risk
Deeply inverted 3M/10Y curve (>-50bp) — severe recession signal
Deep inversions indicate bond market pricing severe economic contraction
Fed Funds rate in restrictive territory (>5%) — tight monetary policy
High rates slow economy and increase financial stress on leveraged borrowers
Fed running quantitative tightening >$90B/month — major liquidity drain
Rapid balance sheet reduction drains liquidity from financial system
Fed hiking >25bp per meeting — aggressive tightening pace
Rapid rate increases risk breaking something in financial system
Fed making emergency rate cuts — crisis response
Emergency cuts only happen when Fed sees severe crisis requiring immediate action
Fed balance sheet shrinking >2% MoM — rapid liquidity withdrawal
Rapid balance sheet shrinkage can trigger liquidity crunch
Fed restarting quantitative easing — crisis liquidity injection
Fed only restarts QE in crisis to prevent financial system collapse
ECB deposit rate >4% — tight policy for European economy
High ECB rates stress European banks and sovereign debt markets
BOJ ending decades of ZIRP/NIRP — major regime change
BOJ policy shift ends yen carry trade and reverses global liquidity flows
BOJ maintaining yield curve control — JGB market distortion
YCC distorts bond market pricing and creates instability risk
BOJ in rate hiking cycle — global liquidity drain
BOJ hikes strengthen yen and reverse decades of yen carry trades
PBoC cutting rates aggressively — China stimulus mode
PBoC easing signals Chinese economy in distress requiring stimulus
Real interest rates negative (rates < inflation) — excessive ease
Negative real rates indicate central banks behind curve, risk of inflation or bubbles
Real rates >3% — very tight monetary conditions
Very high real rates slow economy and increase debt service stress
3+ major central banks cutting rates simultaneously — global crisis response
Coordinated easing only happens in severe global crises (2008, 2020)
3+ major central banks hiking simultaneously — global liquidity drain
Synchronized tightening drains global liquidity and increases crisis risk
Multiple major policy meetings imminent — policy uncertainty spike
Policy meetings create uncertainty and volatility around potential surprises
CPI ≥4.0% — above Fed target
Inflation above 4% forces Fed tightening and raises recession risk
CPI ≥6.0% — crisis-level inflation
Inflation at 6%+ indicates severe pricing instability requiring aggressive Fed action
Unemployment Rate ≥4.5% — labor market deterioration
Rising unemployment signals economic contraction and weakening demand
Unemployment Rate ≥6.0% — recession indicator
Unemployment at 6%+ is a strong recession signal and indicates broad economic distress
Real GDP growth <0% — recession
Negative GDP growth defines technical recession and indicates severe economic contraction
Real GDP growth <1.5% — pre-recession warning
GDP below 1.5% indicates weak growth and elevated recession risk
10Y Treasury Yield <2.5% — investors seeking safety
Very low yields indicate flight to safety as investors anticipate economic weakness
10Y Treasury Yield >5.0% — bond market stress
Very high yields indicate bond market selling pressure and fiscal/inflation concerns
High rates + High unemployment + Weak GDP — multiple recession indicators
When 2+ recession indicators trigger simultaneously, recession probability is very high
High inflation + Weak growth + High unemployment — stagflation scenario
Stagflation (1970s-style) is policy nightmare with high inflation during economic contraction
Commodity price volatility elevated — market instability
High volatility indicates uncertainty and potential supply disruptions
Supply chain metrics showing elevated volatility — instability
Volatility indicates disruptions and uncertainty in global logistics
Gold >$4500/oz — safe haven panic buying
Extreme gold prices indicate fear and flight to safety
Gold up >15% (3M) — crisis hedge demand
Rapid gold appreciation signals investors pricing crisis scenarios
WTI crude oil >$120/barrel — energy crisis
Oil above $120 severely impacts economy, increases inflation and recession risk
WTI crude oil >$100/barrel — inflationary pressure
Oil above $100 increases inflation and consumer cost pressures
Oil prices up >20% in 1 month — supply shock
Rapid oil price increases signal supply disruption or geopolitical crisis
Oil price volatility >40% — energy market instability
High volatility creates planning uncertainty for businesses and consumers
Natural gas up >30% (1M) — energy supply shock
Gas spikes impact heating costs and power generation
US Strategic Petroleum Reserve <50% of average — energy security risk
Depleted reserves reduce ability to respond to supply disruptions
US Strategic Petroleum Reserve <70% of average — reduced buffer
Lower reserves provide less cushion against supply shocks
Strategic reserves <20 days of supply — minimal buffer
Low days of supply means limited ability to weather disruptions
Energy security index <50/100 — severe energy shortage risk
Energy crises disrupt economy and can cause power outages
Energy security index <70/100 — elevated energy stress
Energy stress increases costs and vulnerability to disruptions
Wheat prices up >30% year-over-year — food security threat
Wheat is staple food - price spikes cause hunger and social instability
Corn prices up >30% year-over-year — food inflation
Corn feeds livestock and humans - price spikes ripple through food system
2+ major grains up >15% (3M) — food supply disruption
Multiple grain spikes indicate systemic food supply issues
Wheat reserves <85% of average — reduced buffer
Low reserves mean less ability to stabilize prices during shortages
Corn reserves <80 days of supply — tight supply
Low days of supply increases vulnerability to weather or crop failures
Food security index <50/100 — severe food shortage risk
Food crises cause humanitarian disasters and political instability
Food security index <70/100 — elevated food stress
Food stress increases prices and reduces access for vulnerable populations
Copper down >-20% YoY — recession signal
Copper is economic barometer - crashes precede recessions
Copper up >30% YoY — supply shortage or inflation
Copper spikes signal supply constraints or overheating economy
2+ critical materials at high supply risk — material shortages
Multiple critical material shortages cascade through supply chains
1 critical material at severe supply risk — material constraint
Single material shortage can bottleneck entire production chains
3+ materials at high supply risk — material stress
Multiple material risks increase vulnerability to supply shocks
Rare earth high supply risk + >20% price spike (3M)
Rare earths are critical for electronics, EVs, and defense - shortages are severe
Lithium stockpiles <30 days — EV battery constraint
Lithium shortages constrain EV production and battery supply
Cobalt high risk + <30 days stockpile — battery crisis
Cobalt is essential for batteries - shortages limit EV and electronics production
Critical-severity commodity supply disruptions active
Critical disruptions can cause shortages and price shocks
2+ high-severity commodity disruptions — supply chain stress
Multiple simultaneous disruptions compound supply problems
Commodity security index <60/100 — broad commodity stress
Broad commodity stress indicates systemic supply and price problems
Baltic Dry Index >250% of historical average — shipping crisis
Extreme freight costs indicate severe shipping capacity constraints
Baltic Dry Index >180% of average — high shipping costs
Elevated freight increases costs and reduces trade volumes
Shipping costs up >30% (1M) — rapid logistics deterioration
Rapid freight increases signal sudden capacity shortages
Shanghai Freight Index >200% of average — container shortage
Container shortages disrupt global trade and increase costs
Major ports at critical congestion levels — severe bottlenecks
Critical congestion creates massive delays and supply chain breakdowns
2+ major ports severely congested — widespread delays
Multiple congested ports indicate systemic port capacity issues
Average port congestion >60% — global port stress
High average congestion shows systemic problems across port network
LA/Long Beach ports >70% congestion — US import bottleneck
LA ports handle 40% of US container imports - congestion impacts economy
2+ ports with >48hr vessel wait times — severe congestion
Long wait times increase costs and reduce effective shipping capacity
Semiconductor lead times >26 weeks — severe chip shortage
Extreme lead times halt production of cars, electronics, appliances
Semiconductor lead times >20 weeks — chip supply stress
Long lead times constrain production and increase costs
Chip lead times increased +4 weeks (3M) — deteriorating supply
Worsening lead times signal supply not keeping up with demand
Semiconductor shortage index >70/100 — widespread shortages
High shortage index indicates broad unavailability across chip types
Semiconductor fab utilization >95% — no spare capacity
Maxed capacity means unable to respond to demand increases
Chip inventory <6 weeks — minimal buffer
Low inventory makes supply chain vulnerable to any disruption
Global supply chain health <40/100 — severe disruption
Supply chain breakdown causes shortages, inflation, and economic damage
Supply chain health <60/100 — elevated stress
Supply chain stress increases costs and delivery times
Shipping health index <50/100 — maritime crisis
Shipping breakdown disrupts global trade flows
Port health index <50/100 — port system failure
Port failures create massive bottlenecks in global trade
Manufacturing supply health <50/100 — production crisis
Manufacturing supply failures cause production shutdowns
Bitcoin -10% in 24h — significant crypto selloff
BTC drops >10% often precede equity market selloffs by hours or days
Bitcoin -15% in 24h — extreme crypto distress
BTC crashes >15% signal panic selling and potential contagion to traditional markets
Bitcoin -5% to -10% in 24h — early warning signal
Moderate BTC declines often serve as early warning before broader risk-off moves
Bitcoin +5% in 24h — risk-on indicator
Strong BTC gains suggest market confidence and risk appetite
Bitcoin absolute move >10% in 24h — high instability
Even upside volatility >10% signals market instability and potential reversal risk
Bitcoin absolute move <2% in 24h — low volatility, market calm
Low BTC volatility indicates stable market conditions without stress
BTC and ETH both -5% in 24h — broad crypto market stress
When both BTC and ETH decline together, indicates broad crypto sector weakness
MERVAL (USD) flat while FX moves — confirms stress is FX-driven, not equity-driven
If equities don't drop with FX stress, confirms crisis is FX/sovereign driven rather than a broad equity sell-off.
Bitcoin data unavailable — no signal evaluation possible
Informational signal indicating crypto data is not available for evaluation
17 个具备流动性市场覆盖的地理地区 + 16 个仅基于新闻的国家 + 7 个合成板块。市场数据地区所覆盖的经济体，要么是大多数现代金融危机的发源地，要么曾充当其传导渠道（1997 年亚洲金融危机、2008 年全球金融危机、2010–12 年欧元区危机、2018 年新兴市场危机、2020 年新冠疫情冲击、2022 年英国 LDI 危机、2023 年地区银行危机等）。
仅新闻国家（玻利维亚、秘鲁、智利、委内瑞拉、哥伦比亚、厄瓜多尔、尼日利亚、南非、埃及、印度尼西亚、越南、泰国、菲律宾、俄罗斯、波兰、乌克兰）没有在美国上市且流动性充足的市场代理标的——其危机评分完全依据各地区的 Google News RSS 计算（恐慌关键词密度 + 情绪 + 头条数量）。其评分上限低于市场地区，全球综合指标对其按 0.3× 加权，以免单条本地新闻标题左右整体风险仪表。
大多数现代金融危机的发源地。核心信号包括地区性银行（KRE）、信用（HYG、SRLN、LQD）、VIX 以及写字楼 REIT。
银行业联盟的断层线。STOXX50E 波动率、欧洲银行股（EUFN）、外围国家主权利差。
脱欧后独立于欧盟。英国国债（金边债券）市场压力、英镑（GBP）、英格兰银行政策、LDI（负债驱动投资）结构性风险。
日元套利交易是全球流动性的传导渠道。日经波动率（VNKY）、日本国债（JGB）、日本央行政策、USD/JPY。
香港及日本以外的更广泛亚洲地区。亚洲（日本除外）ETF（AAXJ）、汇丰控股（0005.HK）、恒生指数（HSI）、香港房地产。
半导体与出口的风向标。KOSPI（EWY）、KB 金融、三星、韩元（KRW）。
受房地产行业和政策驱动。FXI、中国银行股、房地产开发商、人民币（CNY）中间价。
最大的新兴市场经济体。Nifty 指数、银行股、卢比（INR）、RBI（印度储备银行）政策。
新兴市场大宗商品的晴雨表。Bovespa 指数、巴西银行股、雷亚尔（BRL）、与铁矿石的联动。
与美国紧密关联的新兴市场。比索（MXN）、IPC 指数、银行股、对跨境贸易的敏感度。
长期存在汇率与主权压力。蓝筹掉期汇率（CCL）、Merval 指数、违约概率。
货币危机的典型案例。里拉（TRY）、BIST 指数、土耳其银行股、央行公信力。
与中国挂钩的大宗商品代理指标。ASX、AUD、铁矿石、住房市场。
大宗商品冲击期间，依赖石油收入的主权财政压力，以及 USD 挂钩汇率所承受的压力。
地缘政治风险的代理指标——制裁、石油供应中断、地区局势升级。
半导体产业高度集中与海峡地缘政治风险。台积电（TSM）、TAIEX、TWD。
新兴市场综合篮子。EEM、EMB、EMHY——捕捉资本外逃的动态。
合成板块是不隶属于任何单一国家的跨领域视角，让仪表板能够观察到不受地理边界限制的压力传导渠道。
主要货币对的压力——DXY、套利货币对、新兴市场货币篮子。
BTC/ETH 波动率、稳定币脱锚、加密资产与股市的相关性格局。
政策分化、紧急行动概率、议息会议日期临近程度。
石油、黄金、工业金属、农产品——综合压力指数。
Baltic Dry（波罗的海干散货指数）、集装箱航运（SCFI）、港口吞吐量、半导体。
GDELT 新闻基调、事件密度、来源多样性——地缘政治与政策信号。
通胀、就业、增长、收益率曲线——经典的衰退指标。
仪表板顶部显示的全球风险等级并非简单平均值。各地区按其系统重要性加权——美国的阶段1读数与阿根廷的阶段1读数，其传导效应并不相同，因为美国是全球融资中心，而阿根廷不是。权重依据 GDP 占比、金融体系规模和历史传染频率静态设定，可在 region-config 文件中查看。
全球仪表综合了三个因素：
传染视图将压力建模为地区之间的有向图。每条边由三项要素定义：相关性基线、根据历史危机传播推算的滞后期（以天计），以及激活该路径所需的最低源头状态。例如，美国阶段1 → 亚洲阶段1 是历史上有充分记录的传导路径，滞后约 2 天。
当源头地区达到或超过路径的最低状态时，该路径即为激活；当目标地区也随之变动时，路径即为确认。这种划分让仪表板能够区分“可能蔓延”与“正在蔓延”。在传染模拟页面的模拟模式中，您可以手动触发某个地区，并逐步推进时间，观察隐含的传播过程。
传染视图回答的是“压力会蔓延到哪里？”；协调性视图回答的是“地区之间的关系是否依然成立？”——即相关性格局本身是否已经破裂。综合评分取值于 [0,1]，严重程度分为 NONE / WARNING / ELEVATED / CRITICAL 四级，每个 tick 由七个子检测器计算得出：
每个子评分的驱动因素（地区标签、脱钩配对）以及综合诊断结果，都会展示在仪表板的协调性卡片中。综合评分还为三个新增的黑天鹅条件提供输入：DECOUPLING、HAVEN_INVERSION、VELOCITY_BREAK。
阈值穿越估算器。此外，每个地区都有一个运动学求解器（s(t) = s0 + v·t + 0.5·a·t²），根据当前速度 + 加速度，预测该地区何时会越过监视 / 触发 / 升级阈值。取 60 个 tick 范围内的最小正根。结果以“即将穿越”卡片呈现——若未来 30 分钟内预计没有任何穿越，该卡片会自动隐藏。
新闻与地缘政治基调数据来自 GDELT 项目，该项目持续发布按基调、参与方和地点编码的全球事件流。对于每个地区，我们按该地区的国家集合筛选事件，汇总平均基调（标准化为 −10 至 +10 的量表），并追踪事件密度（单位时间内与危机相关的事件数量）和来源多样性（报道同一事件的不同新闻来源数量——用于区分真实报道与炒作报道的代理指标）。
新闻信号的分值低于市场信号，因为多数时候基调滞后于价格；但在市场尚未对事件定价的地缘政治情境中，新闻信号会更早触发。这种区分让仪表板保持客观：如果某个地区在市场上风平浪静、在新闻中却沸沸扬扬，您会同时看到两个渠道，并由您自己决定依据哪一个采取行动。
恐慌关键词和负面情绪计数在归一化为百分比之前，会先按发布媒体的信誉等级加权。通讯社（Reuters、Bloomberg、FT、WSJ、AP、AFP）权重为 1.0；主流广播媒体（BBC、CNBC、NYT、Guardian）为 0.7–0.9；财经媒体为 0.5–0.7；未知聚合平台则保守地取 0.3。没有这套分级机制时，一个充斥着高喊“危机”的低质量博客的信息源，对评分的推高作用与 10 条 Reuters 头条无异。信誉表位于 news-analyzer.ts 中，是唯一的权威数据源，并由 news-analyzer.test.ts 进行测试。
每次定时任务（cron）运行都会记录每个信息源的结果（ok / empty / http-error / fetch-error）和条目数量，并通过 /api/health 的 newsFeeds 字段公开。如果某张地区卡片看起来毫无动静，可通过该端点查看是否是上游 RSS 本身出现故障——这有助于诊断 Google 限流或地区性封锁。
仪表板上有两处使用了大语言模型：
模型通过多供应商回退链运行：首先是 Groq (Llama 3.3 70B Versatile)，其次是 Cerebras (Llama 3.3 70B)，然后是 OpenRouter——其主模型为 DeepSeek R1 (deepseek-r1:free)，并以 Qwen3 235B（thinking）和 Llama 3.3 70B Instruct 作为后续备选。一旦遇到限流或错误，回退链会自动切换到下一个供应商或模型，从而确保简报在免费额度内持续生成。所有提示词都受到两方面约束：系统提示词禁止编造数字，用户提示词则以结构化输入的形式包含仪表板当前的信号集。模型只负责总结和解释——它不计算评分、不获取新数据，也不做超出信号含义的预测。
AI 生成的文本仍可能出错：它可能强调了错误的信号、使用过于笃定的措辞，或误读某个阈值。请将 AI 简报视为叠加在数据之上的摘要层，而不是代替您亲自解读数据。
Yahoo Finance
股票、信用、ETF 和波动率价格数据——所有市场类信号的基础。
The GDELT Project
全球新闻基调与地缘政治事件流。用于“情报”地区及新闻类信号。
Polymarket
针对危机相关事件的众包预测市场概率。展示于“预测市场”页面。
央行官方发布
美联储、欧洲央行、日本央行、英国央行、中国人民银行、瑞士央行、澳洲联储、韩国央行等——政策利率、议息会议日程、紧急操作。
FRED (St. Louis Fed)
为宏观（MACRO）板块提供的宏观数据序列——CPI、失业率、收益率曲线和衰退指标。
CNN Fear & Greed, Google Trends, VIX
用于“情绪”页面的情绪综合指标。
航运指数（Baltic Dry、SCFI）
供应链信号——以运费作为实体经济压力的代理指标。
我们会尽可能在每个页面注明数据来源，并在各来源公布的条款范围内使用。如果您是权利人并发现需要更正之处，请通过联系页面与我们联系。
一个评分系统的价值，取决于它对自身盲区的坦诚程度。以下是我们已知本仪表板做得不好、或根本无法做到的事情：
请将本仪表板视为对市场和新闻中已显现压力的系统性监测工具——而不是预测，也不是全球风险的完整图景。
将日本从 ASIA 中拆分出来。ASIA 现为“亚太（日本除外）”，采用香港/恒生代理指标（AAXJ、0005.HK、HSI）。日本（JP）是日经波动率指标（vnky）的唯一来源。原“首尔”标签在整个产品中统一改为“韩国”。
发布本方法论页面，作为完整的规则手册。信号目录现直接由项目的信号词汇表生成，确保文档与引擎始终保持一致。
新增“预测”与“预测市场”页面，作为两个独立的概念（内部机器学习预测 vs. 外部预测市场）。
有疑问、需要更正，或想建议我们新增某个信号？请通过联系页面写信给我们。方法论是一份持续更新的文档；每当信号被新增、停用或重新设定阈值时，我们都会更新它。