China

信号

China Banks Drawdown+3 分

China Large-Cap (FXI) banks component -8% in 5 days — Chinese banking stress为何重要： Chinese bank stocks are first to show stress from property/credit issues in China's financial system

China Property Drawdown+2 分

China Overseas Land (0688.HK) -5% in 5 days — property sector stress为何重要： China's property sector is a key systemic risk; drawdowns signal potential contagion to banks and broader economy

China Credit Stress+2 分

China Bond ETF (CBON) -3% in 3 days — credit market deterioration为何重要： Chinese credit stress often precedes broader EM contagion and signals tightening financial conditions

China Credit Drawdown+2 分

China credit proxy -5% in 5 days — broad credit deterioration为何重要： Sustained credit drawdown indicates deepening financial stress in China

China Market Drawdown+2 分

China Large-Cap (FXI) -5% in 5 days — broad Chinese equity weakness为何重要： Broad equity weakness confirms stress is affecting the wider Chinese market

China FX Stress+2 分

CNY/USD move >3% in 3 days — yuan depreciation pressure为何重要： Rapid yuan weakening signals capital flight and potential PBOC intervention risk

China Volatility Elevated+1 分

China market volatility above 35 — elevated uncertainty为何重要： Elevated volatility indicates market uncertainty and potential for sharp moves

China Market Stable+0 分

China Large-Cap (FXI) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off为何重要： Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to specific sectors

China Market Stable+0 分

China Large-Cap (FXI) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off为何重要： Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to specific sectors

China Property Drawdown+2 分

China Overseas Land (0688.HK) -5% in 5 days — property sector stress为何重要： China's property sector is a key systemic risk; drawdowns signal potential contagion

跟踪的金融工具

MKT — iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI)

Broadest China equity proxy. Tracks the largest Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong.平稳 5d > -1% · 关注 5d -1% to -5% · 承压 5d < -5%

BANK — Bank of China (3988.HK)

Chinese banks are exposed to property developer debt and local government financing vehicles (LGFVs). First to show systemic stress.平稳 5d > -3% · 关注 5d -3% to -8% · 承压 5d < -8%

CRD — VanEck China Bond ETF (CBON)

Chinese onshore bond market proxy. Stress here signals tightening financial conditions and potential PBOC intervention.平稳 5d > -1% · 关注 5d -1% to -3% · 承压 5d < -3%

RE — China Overseas Land & Investment (0688.HK)

China property sector — the single biggest systemic risk. Evergrande, Country Garden, etc. Drawdowns signal potential contagion to banks.平稳 5d > -3% · 关注 5d -3% to -10% · 承压 5d < -10%

FX — Chinese Yuan (CNY/USD)

Yuan depreciation signals capital flight and potential PBOC intervention. Managed float means moves are policy-significant.平稳 3d < +0.5% · 关注 3d +0.5% to +1.5% · 承压 3d > +1.5%

曾波及该地区的历史危机

• China Devaluation / EM CrisisAug 2015 – Feb 2016

  PBoC surprised markets with CNY devaluation, triggering global EM selloff and commodity crash. Oil fell below $30.

  VIX 峰值 40.74 · 标普 500 跌幅 -14.2%