Turkey

Сигналы

Turkey Banks Drawdown+3 б.

Turkish banks proxy -8% in 5 days — banking sector stressПочему это важно: Turkish banks are exposed to lira depreciation and high inflation; drawdowns signal systemic risk

Turkey Credit Stress+2 б.

EM bond proxy (EMB) underperforming — Turkish credit deteriorationПочему это важно: Credit stress in Turkey signals sovereign risk and potential lira crisis

Turkey Credit Drawdown+2 б.

Turkey credit proxy -5% in 5 days — broad credit deteriorationПочему это важно: Sustained credit drawdown indicates deepening financial stress in Turkey

Turkey Market Drawdown+2 б.

Turkey ETF (TUR) -5% in 5 days — broad Turkish equity weaknessПочему это важно: Broad equity weakness confirms stress is affecting the wider Turkish market

Lira FX Stress+2 б.

TRY/USD move >3% in 3 days — lira depreciation pressureПочему это важно: Rapid lira weakening signals loss of confidence and potential central bank policy failure

Turkey Volatility Elevated+1 б.

Turkish market volatility above 35 — elevated uncertaintyПочему это важно: Elevated volatility indicates market uncertainty, often FX-driven in Turkey

Turkey Market Stable+0 б.

Turkey ETF (TUR) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-offПочему это важно: Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to FX/rates

Turkey Real Estate Drawdown+2 б.

Turkish REITs -10% in 5 days — property sector stressПочему это важно: Turkish real estate stress often accompanies lira depreciation and rate hikes

Turkey Market Stable+0 б.

Turkey ETF (TUR) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-offПочему это важно: Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to FX/rates

Отслеживаемые инструменты

MKT — iShares MSCI Turkey ETF (TUR)

Broadest Turkey equity proxy. Highly sensitive to lira moves and central bank policy decisions.Спокойно 5d > -2% · Внимание 5d -2% to -5% · Стресс 5d < -10%

BANK — Akbank (AKBNK.IS)

Turkish banks are exposed to lira depreciation, high inflation, and unorthodox monetary policy. Key systemic risk.Спокойно 5d > -3% · Внимание 5d -3% to -8% · Стресс 5d < -8%

SVRN — Turkey Sovereign Bond Proxy (EMB component)

Turkish sovereign credit. Sensitive to lira moves, inflation, and central bank credibility.Спокойно 5d > -1% · Внимание 5d -1% to -3% · Стресс 5d < -3%

FX — Turkish Lira (TRY/USD)

The lira is Turkey's primary stress indicator. Rapid depreciation signals loss of confidence in monetary policy and potential crisis.Спокойно 3d < +1% · Внимание 3d +1% to +5% · Стресс 3d > +5% depreciation

CRD — Turkey Credit Proxy

Turkish credit conditions. Weakness signals rising default risk amid high inflation and FX volatility.Спокойно 5d > -1% · Внимание 5d -1% to -3% · Стресс 5d < -5%

Прошлые кризисы, затронувшие этот регион

• Taper TantrumMay 2013 – Sep 2013

  Fed signaled tapering QE. EM currencies and bonds sold off sharply as dollar strengthened.

  Пик VIX 21.91 · Падение S&P 500 -5.8%