China

Сигналы

China Banks Drawdown+3 б.

China Large-Cap (FXI) banks component -8% in 5 days — Chinese banking stressПочему это важно: Chinese bank stocks are first to show stress from property/credit issues in China's financial system

China Property Drawdown+2 б.

China Overseas Land (0688.HK) -5% in 5 days — property sector stressПочему это важно: China's property sector is a key systemic risk; drawdowns signal potential contagion to banks and broader economy

China Credit Stress+2 б.

China Bond ETF (CBON) -3% in 3 days — credit market deteriorationПочему это важно: Chinese credit stress often precedes broader EM contagion and signals tightening financial conditions

China Credit Drawdown+2 б.

China credit proxy -5% in 5 days — broad credit deteriorationПочему это важно: Sustained credit drawdown indicates deepening financial stress in China

China Market Drawdown+2 б.

China Large-Cap (FXI) -5% in 5 days — broad Chinese equity weaknessПочему это важно: Broad equity weakness confirms stress is affecting the wider Chinese market

China FX Stress+2 б.

CNY/USD move >3% in 3 days — yuan depreciation pressureПочему это важно: Rapid yuan weakening signals capital flight and potential PBOC intervention risk

China Volatility Elevated+1 б.

China market volatility above 35 — elevated uncertaintyПочему это важно: Elevated volatility indicates market uncertainty and potential for sharp moves

China Market Stable+0 б.

China Large-Cap (FXI) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-offПочему это важно: Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to specific sectors

China Market Stable+0 б.

China Large-Cap (FXI) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-offПочему это важно: Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to specific sectors

China Property Drawdown+2 б.

China Overseas Land (0688.HK) -5% in 5 days — property sector stressПочему это важно: China's property sector is a key systemic risk; drawdowns signal potential contagion

Отслеживаемые инструменты

MKT — iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI)

Broadest China equity proxy. Tracks the largest Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong.Спокойно 5d > -1% · Внимание 5d -1% to -5% · Стресс 5d < -5%

BANK — Bank of China (3988.HK)

Chinese banks are exposed to property developer debt and local government financing vehicles (LGFVs). First to show systemic stress.Спокойно 5d > -3% · Внимание 5d -3% to -8% · Стресс 5d < -8%

CRD — VanEck China Bond ETF (CBON)

Chinese onshore bond market proxy. Stress here signals tightening financial conditions and potential PBOC intervention.Спокойно 5d > -1% · Внимание 5d -1% to -3% · Стресс 5d < -3%

RE — China Overseas Land & Investment (0688.HK)

China property sector — the single biggest systemic risk. Evergrande, Country Garden, etc. Drawdowns signal potential contagion to banks.Спокойно 5d > -3% · Внимание 5d -3% to -10% · Стресс 5d < -10%

FX — Chinese Yuan (CNY/USD)

Yuan depreciation signals capital flight and potential PBOC intervention. Managed float means moves are policy-significant.Спокойно 3d < +0.5% · Внимание 3d +0.5% to +1.5% · Стресс 3d > +1.5%

Прошлые кризисы, затронувшие этот регион

• China Devaluation / EM CrisisAug 2015 – Feb 2016

  PBoC surprised markets with CNY devaluation, triggering global EM selloff and commodity crash. Oil fell below $30.

  Пик VIX 40.74 · Падение S&P 500 -14.2%