GCC / Middle East

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NORMAL

Pontuação de Crise2.0/15.0

KSA Vol

12.1

Sinais

2/7

Segurança

Invalidadores

0/0

Ações

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What's Happening

1 signalfiring · 2.0/15.0 pts

3 points away from escalating to MONITOR. Key driver: GCC_intel_civil_unrest in Other.

Other2pts

GCC_intel_civil_unrest2.00

Símbolos

Saudi ETF↓

KSA

$36.09

-2.2%

-0.0%

-5.6%

0.0%

RVol

2.0

Saudi Banks↓

1120.SR

$62.30

+0.2%

-0.2%

-5.2%

0.0%

RVol

0.6

Oil↑

USO

$147.65

+1.9%

-1.6%

-6.8%

0.0%

RVol

0.8

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Signals

Score: 2.0/15.0|Monitor: 5Trigger: 7Escalate: 9

Triggered (1)

GCC_intel_civil_unrest

High protest activity: 30 events2.0+2

Checks Passing (1)

pct_change(market,5) >= -3-0.0OK

Inactive (5)

pct_change(banks,1) <= -3 OR pct_change(banks,5) <= -5-0.2+0

GCC_oil_shock

|pct_change(oil,1)| >= 3 OR |pct_change(oil,5)| >= 5-1.6+0

GCC_sovereign_stress

pct_change(sovereign,5) <= -40.8+0

pct_change(market,5) <= -5 (moderate) OR <= -8 (severe)-0.0+0

volatility > 3512.1+0

Signal Contribution

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Sentimento de Notícias

Como a pontuação desta região é calculada

Cada sinal abaixo soma pontos à pontuação de crise desta região enquanto sua condição se mantém. O total corresponde a um estado de crise segundo os limites mostrados acima. O regulamento completo está na página de metodologia.

As definições de sinais e instrumentos são exibidas em inglês, como constam nos arquivos de regras.

Sinais

GCC Banks Drawdown+3 pts: Saudi Arabia ETF (KSA) banks component -8% in 5 days — GCC banking stressPor que importa: GCC banks are heavily exposed to oil revenue and sovereign wealth; drawdowns signal fiscal stress
GCC Credit Stress+2 pts: EM bond proxy (EMB) underperforming — GCC credit deteriorationPor que importa: Credit stress in GCC signals oil-related fiscal concerns and sovereign risk
GCC Credit Drawdown+2 pts: GCC credit proxy -5% in 5 days — broad credit deteriorationPor que importa: Sustained credit drawdown indicates deepening financial stress in GCC
GCC Market Drawdown+2 pts: Saudi Arabia ETF (KSA) -5% in 5 days — broad GCC equity weaknessPor que importa: Broad GCC equity weakness confirms stress is affecting the wider regional market
GCC FX Stress+2 pts: USD peg pressure detected — potential devaluation riskPor que importa: GCC currencies are pegged to USD; stress here signals extreme fiscal pressure
GCC Volatility Elevated+1 pts: GCC market volatility above 35 — elevated uncertaintyPor que importa: Elevated volatility indicates market uncertainty, often oil-driven
GCC Market Stable+0 pts: Saudi Arabia ETF (KSA) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-offPor que importa: Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to oil sector
GCC Real Estate Drawdown+2 pts: Gulf real estate -10% in 5 days — property sector stressPor que importa: GCC real estate is heavily tied to oil revenue and sovereign spending
GCC Market Stable+0 pts: Saudi Arabia ETF (KSA) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-offPor que importa: Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to oil sector

Instrumentos monitorados

MKT — iShares MSCI Saudi Arabia ETF (KSA): Saudi Arabia is the GCC's largest economy. Equity performance is tightly correlated with oil prices and Vision 2030 progress.Calma 5d > -1% · Atenção 5d -1% to -5% · Estresse 5d < -8%
BANK — Al Rajhi Bank (1120.SR): GCC banks are heavily exposed to oil revenue and sovereign wealth. Drawdowns signal fiscal stress and potential peg pressure.Calma 5d > -3% · Atenção 5d -3% to -8% · Estresse 5d < -8%
SVRN — GCC Sovereign Bond Proxy (EMB component): GCC sovereign credit. Oil-dependent fiscal budgets mean sovereign risk rises sharply when oil drops.Calma 5d > -1% · Atenção 5d -1% to -3% · Estresse 5d < -3%
OIL — Crude Oil (WTI/Brent): Oil is the lifeblood of GCC economies. A crash directly impacts fiscal budgets, sovereign wealth, and currency pegs.Calma 5d > -3% · Atenção 5d -3% to -12% · Estresse 5d < -12%
FX — GCC Currency Peg Proxy: GCC currencies are pegged to USD. Any stress here signals extreme fiscal pressure and potential devaluation risk.Calma Peg stable · Atenção Forward rates widening · Estresse Peg under pressure

GCC / Middle East

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Como a pontuação desta região é calculada

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Instrumentos monitorados