Como o CrisisBoard transforma dados brutos de mercado, macro e notícias em uma pontuação de crise por região e um nível global de risco. Esta página é o livro de regras completo e auditável.
Última atualização: 2026-04-20 · 259 sinais definidos
Quase todo painel comercial de crises é uma caixa-preta: uma pontuação sai de um modelo, e o fornecedor protege esse modelo como proprietário. Isso funciona quando o modelo acerta e é inútil quando ele erra — não dá para contestar um número cujo funcionamento interno você não consegue ver.
O CrisisBoard adota a abordagem oposta. Cada sinal que contribui para a pontuação de uma região é uma regra nomeada e publicada, com limite fixo, fonte de dados conhecida e valor em pontos fixo. A lógica de pontuação é determinística: as mesmas entradas no mesmo dia sempre produzem a mesma pontuação. Não há aprendizado, nem ajuste de modelo, nem pesos que mudam de uma versão para outra.
Isso tem duas consequências. Primeiro, o painel pode ser refutado — você pode discordar de um limite específico e contestá-lo, porque o limite está à vista. Segundo, isso nos obriga a ser honestos sobre o que não sabemos: se nenhum sinal nomeado capta algo, a pontuação não consegue enxergá-lo. Isso é uma característica, não um defeito. Um 3/20 em uma região que acabou de sofrer um golpe de Estado, e para a qual não temos nenhum sinal de risco político, não é uma previsão de que o golpe não importa — é um lembrete de que nosso conjunto de sinais está incompleto.
O machine learning tem seu lugar, e nós o usamos em tarefas que não envolvem pontuação (por exemplo, gerar resumos em linguagem natural ou agrupar anomalias). Mas o número no topo de cada card de região é sempre a soma de regras visíveis.
Cada região é classificada em um de cinco estados com base em sua pontuação total. As faixas variam por região — uma região de mercado desenvolvido como os EUA usa limites diferentes dos de um mercado emergente como a Argentina, porque a volatilidade de base de cada um é diferente. As faixas de pontos abaixo são os limites de referência dos EUA (monitorar 8, gatilho 10, escalar 12); outras regiões os deslocam para cima ou para baixo, e os cortes exatos de cada região ficam no arquivo region-config.
Nenhum estresse significativo detectado. Ruído rotineiro da agitação do mercado, movimentos isolados de um único ativo. Nada que exija ação.
Indicadores de alerta antecipado começam a se alinhar. Um punhado de sinais fracos, porém reais, disparando juntos — bancos enfraquecendo, spreads de crédito abrindo, volatilidade subindo aos poucos. Vale acompanhar, mas ainda não é hora de agir.
Estresse confirmado. Várias categorias de sinais disparam simultaneamente. Historicamente, regiões em FASE 1 têm uma probabilidade significativamente maior de se agravar nos dias ou semanas seguintes.
Estresse de FASE 1 confirmado por um pico de volatilidade. Dispara quando a pontuação já está na faixa de gatilho E o indicador de volatilidade da região (o VIX, no caso dos EUA) ultrapassa 28 — o mercado não está apenas estressado, está se movendo com violência. Historicamente, é o caminho mais rápido para a FASE 2.
Disfunção sistêmica. Vários sinais de ruptura confirmados — estresse de liquidez, disfunção cambial, ruptura no crédito. É o estado em que “está acontecendo de verdade”.
As transições de estado incluem histerese: uma região que atinge a FASE 1 não volta para NORMAL depois de um único dia no verde. Isso evita oscilações causadas por ruído e reflete como as crises de fato se desenrolam — o estresse se acumula e depois se dissipa.
Cada sinal ocupa uma linha. Leia as colunas nesta ordem: nome / instrumento / limite / pontos / por que importa. Os pontos se somam à pontuação total da região. Um valor em pontos mais alto significa que o sinal é historicamente mais preditivo de crises reais, não que o consideremos politicamente mais importante.
A lista abaixo é gerada diretamente a partir do arquivo de glossário de sinais do projeto — se um sinal está aqui, ele está ativo no motor; se não está aqui, não é usado.
As definições de sinais abaixo são exibidas em inglês, exatamente como constam nos arquivos de regras.
Argentine bank ADRs (GGAL, BMA, SUPV) -12% in 5 days — banking sector stress
Local banks (ADRs) show stress from FX and sovereign issues. These are the most liquid proxies for Argentine financial system health.
China Large-Cap (FXI) banks component -8% in 5 days — Chinese banking stress
Chinese bank stocks are first to show stress from property/credit issues in China's financial system
UK banks (BARC, LLOY) -8% in 5 days — UK banking sector stress
UK banks are highly leveraged to property and credit markets; drawdowns signal systemic risk
Brazilian banks (ITUB, BBD) -8% in 5 days — banking sector stress
Brazilian banks are exposed to sovereign and FX risk; drawdowns signal systemic concerns
Indian banks (IBN, HDB) -8% in 5 days — banking sector stress
Indian banks are key indicators of domestic financial health and NPA risk
Saudi Arabia ETF (KSA) banks component -8% in 5 days — GCC banking stress
GCC banks are heavily exposed to oil revenue and sovereign wealth; drawdowns signal fiscal stress
Australian banks (CBA) -8% in 5 days — banking sector stress
Australian banks are heavily exposed to property market; drawdowns signal housing/credit risk
Turkish banks proxy -8% in 5 days — banking sector stress
Turkish banks are exposed to lira depreciation and high inflation; drawdowns signal systemic risk
Korean banks (KB, SHG) -8% in 5 days — banking sector stress
Korean banks are exposed to household debt and chaebol risk; drawdowns signal systemic concerns
US Regional Banks (KRE) -8% in 5 days — banking sector stress
Regional banks are first to show stress in financial system issues
Euro Banks Index (SX7E) -8% in 5 days — EU banking stress
European banks are first to show stress in EU financial system
Asia Financials -8% in 5 days — Asian banking stress
Asian financials are first to show stress in regional financial system
Argentine bank ADRs (GGAL, BMA, SUPV) -8% in 5 days — banking stress
Local banks (ADRs) show stress from FX and sovereign issues
Coinbase (COIN) -15% in 5 days — exchange distress
Exchange stress precedes broader crypto crisis and liquidity issues
Japanese banks (MUFG, SMFG) -8% in 5 days — banking stress
Japanese bank stress signals JGB or property market concerns
Mexican banks (BSMX) -8% in 5 days — banking stress
Mexican bank stress signals sovereign or FX concerns
Taiwan banks (Cathay, Fubon) -8% in 5 days — banking stress
Taiwan bank stress signals property or geopolitical concerns
European High Yield (EHYG) underperforms Investment Grade (EIGB) — credit stress
HY underperforming IG indicates EU credit market stress and risk aversion
China Bond ETF (CBON) -3% in 3 days — credit market deterioration
Chinese credit stress often precedes broader EM contagion and signals tightening financial conditions
China credit proxy -5% in 5 days — broad credit deterioration
Sustained credit drawdown indicates deepening financial stress in China
UK gilts (IGLT) underperforming — credit market deterioration
Gilt stress (as seen in 2022 LDI crisis) can cascade through pension funds and banks
UK credit proxy -5% in 5 days — broad credit deterioration
Sustained credit drawdown indicates deepening financial stress in the UK
EM bond proxy (EMB) underperforming — Brazilian credit deterioration
Credit stress in Brazil often precedes broader EM contagion
Brazil credit proxy -5% in 5 days — broad credit deterioration
Sustained credit drawdown indicates deepening financial stress in Brazil
India bond proxy (IGIB) underperforming — credit deterioration
Credit stress in India signals tightening financial conditions and potential NPA issues
India credit proxy -5% in 5 days — broad credit deterioration
Sustained credit drawdown indicates deepening financial stress in India
EM bond proxy (EMB) underperforming — GCC credit deterioration
Credit stress in GCC signals oil-related fiscal concerns and sovereign risk
GCC credit proxy -5% in 5 days — broad credit deterioration
Sustained credit drawdown indicates deepening financial stress in GCC
Australian bonds (IAF) underperforming — credit deterioration
Credit stress in Australia signals tightening conditions and potential mortgage stress
Australia credit proxy -5% in 5 days — broad credit deterioration
Sustained credit drawdown indicates deepening financial stress in Australia
EM bond proxy (EMB) underperforming — Turkish credit deterioration
Credit stress in Turkey signals sovereign risk and potential lira crisis
Turkey credit proxy -5% in 5 days — broad credit deterioration
Sustained credit drawdown indicates deepening financial stress in Turkey
South Korea ETF (EWY) credit component underperforming — credit deterioration
Credit stress in Korea signals tightening conditions and potential tech sector contagion
South Korea credit proxy -5% in 5 days — broad credit deterioration
Sustained credit drawdown indicates deepening financial stress in Korea
EM sovereign bonds (EMB) underperforming — broad EM credit deterioration
EM credit stress signals rising default risk and capital flight from developing markets
EM credit proxy -5% in 5 days — broad credit deterioration
Sustained EM credit drawdown indicates deepening financial stress across emerging markets
Senior Loans (SRLN) underperform High Yield (HYG) — credit quality deterioration
Senior loans should be safer than HY bonds. Underperformance signals credit stress
US credit proxy -5% in 5 days — broad credit deterioration
Sustained credit drawdown indicates deepening financial stress in the US
EU credit proxy -5% in 5 days — broad credit deterioration
Sustained credit drawdown indicates deepening financial stress in Europe
Asia High Yield underperforms Investment Grade — credit deterioration
HY underperforming IG indicates Asian credit market stress and risk aversion
Asia credit proxy -5% in 5 days — broad credit deterioration
Sustained credit drawdown indicates deepening financial stress in Asia
Argentine sovereign bonds underperform — credit deterioration
Argentine credit stress signals rising default or restructuring risk
Argentine credit proxy -5% in 5 days — broad credit deterioration
Sustained credit drawdown indicates deepening financial stress in Argentina
China Large-Cap (FXI) -5% in 5 days — broad Chinese equity weakness
Broad equity weakness confirms stress is affecting the wider Chinese market
China market volatility above 35 — elevated uncertainty
Elevated volatility indicates market uncertainty and potential for sharp moves
China Large-Cap (FXI) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to specific sectors
FTSE 100 -5% in 5 days — broad UK equity weakness
Broad UK equity weakness confirms stress is affecting the wider market
UK market volatility above 25 — elevated uncertainty
Elevated volatility indicates market uncertainty and potential for sharp moves
FTSE 100 holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to specific sectors
Brazil ETF (EWZ) -5% in 5 days — broad Brazilian equity weakness
Broad equity weakness confirms stress is affecting the wider Brazilian market
Brazil market volatility above 35 — elevated uncertainty
Elevated volatility indicates market uncertainty and potential for sharp moves
Brazil ETF (EWZ) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to specific sectors
India ETF (INDA) -5% in 5 days — broad Indian equity weakness
Broad equity weakness confirms stress is affecting the wider Indian market
India market volatility above 35 — elevated uncertainty
Elevated volatility indicates market uncertainty and potential for sharp moves
India ETF (INDA) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to specific sectors
Saudi Arabia ETF (KSA) -5% in 5 days — broad GCC equity weakness
Broad GCC equity weakness confirms stress is affecting the wider regional market
GCC market volatility above 35 — elevated uncertainty
Elevated volatility indicates market uncertainty, often oil-driven
Saudi Arabia ETF (KSA) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to oil sector
ASX 200 -5% in 5 days — broad Australian equity weakness
Broad equity weakness confirms stress is affecting the wider Australian market
Australian market volatility above 25 — elevated uncertainty
Elevated volatility indicates market uncertainty and potential for sharp moves
ASX 200 holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to specific sectors
Turkey ETF (TUR) -5% in 5 days — broad Turkish equity weakness
Broad equity weakness confirms stress is affecting the wider Turkish market
Turkish market volatility above 35 — elevated uncertainty
Elevated volatility indicates market uncertainty, often FX-driven in Turkey
Turkey ETF (TUR) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to FX/rates
South Korea ETF (EWY) -5% in 5 days — broad Korean equity weakness
Broad equity weakness confirms stress is affecting the wider Korean market
Korean market volatility above 35 — elevated uncertainty
Elevated volatility indicates market uncertainty, often tech/semiconductor driven
South Korea ETF (EWY) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to specific sectors
EM ETF (EEM) -5% in 5 days — broad emerging market equity weakness
Broad EM equity weakness confirms stress is systemic across emerging markets
Emerging market volatility above 35 — elevated uncertainty
Elevated EM volatility indicates broad uncertainty and potential for capital flight
EM ETF (EEM) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to specific countries
S&P 500 (SPY) -5% in 5 days — broad market weakness
Equity weakness confirms stress is affecting broader market
VIX above 25 — elevated market fear
Elevated VIX indicates market uncertainty and potential for sharp moves
S&P 500 (SPY) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to specific sectors
Euro Stoxx 50 (STOXX50E) -5% in 5 days — broad EU equity weakness
EU equity weakness confirms stress is affecting broader European market
STOXX50E Realized Vol above 25 — elevated EU market fear
Elevated STOXX50E Realized Vol indicates EU market uncertainty and potential for sharp moves
Euro Stoxx 50 holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to specific sectors
MSCI Asia-Pacific -5% in 5 days — broad Asian equity weakness
Regional equity weakness confirms stress is affecting broader Asian market
Hang Seng vol above 25 — elevated Asian market fear
Elevated regional volatility indicates market uncertainty and potential for sharp moves
MSCI Asia-Pacific holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to specific countries
MSCI Argentina ETF (ARGT) -5% in 5 days — broad Argentine equity weakness
Broad equity weakness confirms stress is affecting the wider Argentine market
Argentina market volatility above 35 — elevated uncertainty
Elevated volatility indicates market uncertainty, often FX-driven in Argentina
MSCI Argentina ETF (ARGT) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to FX/sovereign
China Large-Cap (FXI) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to specific sectors
FTSE 100 holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to specific sectors
Brazil ETF (EWZ) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to specific sectors
India ETF (INDA) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to specific sectors
Saudi Arabia ETF (KSA) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to oil sector
ASX 200 holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to specific sectors
Turkey ETF (TUR) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to FX/rates
South Korea ETF (EWY) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to specific sectors
EM ETF (EEM) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to specific countries
Bitcoin (BTC-USD) -5% in 5 days — crypto market weakness
Bitcoin drawdowns often precede broader crypto market sell-offs
Ethereum (ETH-USD) -12% in 5 days — altcoin stress
ETH weakness signals altcoin market stress and potential DeFi contagion
Bitcoin volatility above 25 — elevated uncertainty
Elevated volatility indicates market uncertainty and potential for sharp moves
Bitcoin (BTC-USD) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to specific tokens
DXY volatility above 25 — elevated FX uncertainty
Elevated FX volatility indicates currency market uncertainty
Japan ETF (EWJ) -5% in 5 days — broad Japanese equity weakness
Broad equity weakness confirms stress affecting wider Japanese market
Japanese market volatility above 25 — elevated uncertainty
Elevated volatility indicates Japanese market uncertainty
Japan ETF (EWJ) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — stress may be contained to specific sectors
Mexico ETF (EWW) -5% in 5 days — broad Mexican equity weakness
Broad equity weakness confirms stress affecting wider Mexican market
Mexican market volatility above 35 — elevated uncertainty
Elevated volatility indicates Mexican market uncertainty
Mexico ETF (EWW) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — stress may be contained to specific sectors
TSMC (TSM) -12% in 5 days — semiconductor supply chain risk
TSMC weakness signals semiconductor supply chain stress
Taiwan ETF (EWT) -5% in 5 days — broad Taiwanese equity weakness
Broad equity weakness confirms stress affecting wider Taiwan market
Taiwan market volatility above 35 — elevated uncertainty
Elevated volatility indicates Taiwan market uncertainty, often geopolitical
Taiwan ETF (EWT) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — stress may be contained to specific sectors
Contado con Liquidación (CCL) +6% in 3 days — primary FX stress indicator
CCL (contado con liquidación) is the main FX stress indicator for Argentina. A sharp rise means the peso is weakening rapidly against the dollar in the parallel market.
Argentine sovereign bonds (GD30) underperform US IG — sovereign risk rising
Argentine sovereign bonds underperforming US IG indicates the market is pricing in higher default or restructuring risk for Argentina.
CNY/USD move >3% in 3 days — yuan depreciation pressure
Rapid yuan weakening signals capital flight and potential PBOC intervention risk
GBP/USD move >3% in 3 days — sterling depreciation pressure
Rapid sterling weakening signals loss of confidence in UK economy/fiscal policy
BRL/USD move >3% in 3 days — real depreciation pressure
Rapid real weakening signals capital flight and potential central bank intervention
INR/USD move >3% in 3 days — rupee depreciation pressure
Rapid rupee weakening signals capital outflows and potential RBI intervention
USD peg pressure detected — potential devaluation risk
GCC currencies are pegged to USD; stress here signals extreme fiscal pressure
AUD/USD move >3% in 3 days — Aussie dollar depreciation pressure
Rapid AUD weakening signals commodity downturn and potential capital outflows
TRY/USD move >3% in 3 days — lira depreciation pressure
Rapid lira weakening signals loss of confidence and potential central bank policy failure
KRW/USD move >3% in 3 days — won depreciation pressure
Rapid won weakening signals capital outflows and potential BoK intervention
USD strength (UUP) >3% in 3 days — broad EM currency pressure
Dollar strength creates EM FX stress, increasing USD-denominated debt burden
USD index move >3% in 3 days — dollar volatility
Rapid dollar moves signal global risk-off or flight to safety dynamics
EUR/USD move >3% in 3 days — euro volatility
Rapid euro moves signal ECB policy concerns or eurozone fragmentation risk
Asian currency basket move >3% in 3 days — regional FX pressure
Rapid Asian currency weakening signals capital flight from the region
FX proxy move >3% in 3 days — peso depreciation pressure
Rapid FX moves signal capital flight and parallel market stress
Dollar Index strength >3% — strong USD indicates global stress
Strong USD typically signals flight to safety and global risk aversion
Dollar Index strength >5% — extreme USD demand
Extreme dollar strength indicates severe global financial stress
Emerging market FX stress >4% — EM currency weakness
EM FX stress signals capital flight from developing markets
USD/JPY down >2% — yen strengthening (risk-off)
Yen strength indicates flight to safety and risk aversion
Cross-currency volatility >3% — FX market dislocation
High cross-currency volatility signals FX market stress
EUR/USD down >3% in 5 days — euro weakness
Euro weakness signals eurozone stress or dollar strength
GBP/USD down >3% in 5 days — pound weakness
Pound weakness signals UK economic concerns or dollar strength
USD/CNY up >2% — yuan depreciation pressure
Yuan weakness signals China FX pressure and potential PBOC intervention
USD/MXN up >4% — peso weakness (EM bellwether)
Peso is most liquid EM currency; weakness signals broader EM stress
2+ major pairs with >2% 5d moves — widespread FX stress
Multiple major pairs stressed indicates systemic FX market dislocation
MXN/USD move >3% in 3 days — peso depreciation pressure
Peso is most liquid EM currency; weakness signals EM stress
China Overseas Land (0688.HK) -5% in 5 days — property sector stress
China's property sector is a key systemic risk; drawdowns signal potential contagion to banks and broader economy
UK property (BLND) -10% in 5 days — commercial real estate stress
UK commercial property is a key stress indicator, especially post-Brexit and with rising rates
Australian Property ETF (VAP.AX) -5% in 5 days — property sector stress
Australian property is a key systemic risk given high household debt levels
Office REITs (VNO, SLG, BXP) -5% in 5 days — commercial real estate stress
Office REITs are canaries in coal mine for credit/liquidity issues
EU Real Estate (EQRE) -10% in 5 days — European property stress
European real estate stress can cascade through banks and pension funds
Wharf Real Estate (1997.HK) -5% in 5 days — Asian property stress
HK developers are canaries in coal mine for Asian property/credit issues
Argentine real estate (IRSA, CRESY) -10% in 5 days — property stress
Argentine real estate stress often accompanies FX and sovereign crises
China Overseas Land (0688.HK) -5% in 5 days — property sector stress
China's property sector is a key systemic risk; drawdowns signal potential contagion
UK property (BLND) -10% in 5 days — commercial real estate stress
UK commercial property is a key stress indicator, especially post-Brexit
Brazil REITs -10% in 5 days — property sector stress
Brazilian real estate stress often accompanies rate hikes and credit tightening
India REITs -10% in 5 days — property sector stress
Indian real estate stress signals potential NPA issues in banking sector
Gulf real estate -10% in 5 days — property sector stress
GCC real estate is heavily tied to oil revenue and sovereign spending
Turkish REITs -10% in 5 days — property sector stress
Turkish real estate stress often accompanies lira depreciation and rate hikes
South Korea REITs proxy -10% in 5 days — property sector stress
Korean real estate stress signals household debt concerns and potential banking contagion
EM real estate proxy -10% in 5 days — broad EM property stress
EM real estate stress signals broad financial tightening across developing markets
T-Bills (BIL) price up + volume ≥2× average — investors hiding in safety
Investors hiding in T-Bills = expecting market stress - core thesis pillar
EU Money Market (CSH2.PA) price up + volume ≥2× average — investors hiding in safety
Investors hiding in EU money markets = expecting European market stress - core thesis pillar
VIX rising faster than 2%/minute — panic acceleration
Rapid VIX acceleration indicates sudden fear spike even before absolute thresholds hit
Regional banks (KRE) dropping faster than 1.5%/minute — rapid banking stress
Sudden banking sector drops indicate liquidity or confidence crisis developing
High Yield (HYG) dropping faster than 0.8%/minute — credit spread widening acceleration
Rapid credit selloffs signal flight to quality before spreads hit critical levels
STOXX50E Realized Vol rising faster than 2%/minute — European panic acceleration
Rapid European volatility spikes indicate sudden stress in euro markets
European banks (SX7E) dropping faster than 1.5%/minute — rapid banking stress
Sudden EU banking drops indicate systemic euro-area financial stress
European High Yield (EHYG) dropping faster than 0.8%/minute — credit stress acceleration
Rapid euro credit selloffs precede broader European financial stress
ARS dropping faster than 1%/minute — currency crisis acceleration
Rapid peso drops indicate loss of confidence and capital flight
50%+ of regions rising simultaneously (5+ pts) — contagion risk
Synchronized rapid deterioration across regions signals systemic contagion
>20% of news contains crisis keywords — media panic
High panic keyword percentage indicates widespread crisis coverage
>40% of news is crisis-related — extreme media alarm
Majority crisis coverage signals major unfolding events
>60% of news has negative sentiment — pessimism surge
Widespread negative sentiment reflects deteriorating conditions
>80% of news negative — overwhelming pessimism
Extreme negativity indicates severe crisis or panic
5+ crisis articles in 30 minutes — breaking crisis
High-frequency crisis news indicates rapidly developing situation
Single region >30% of crisis articles — regional focus
Geographic concentration indicates specific regional crisis
Crisis keywords in 3+ regions simultaneously — contagion
Multi-region crises indicate contagion or coordinated events
>20% global keywords + >30% panic — systemic global event
Global crisis coverage indicates systemic worldwide emergency
<10 unique sources with >50 articles — low source diversity
Echo chambers suggest limited independent verification of news
Very recent crisis news (<30 min avg) with high panic — breaking event
Fresh panic news indicates new crisis developments
Crisis news >2hrs old but still high panic — ongoing crisis
Sustained coverage indicates crisis is not resolving quickly
Federal Funds Rate ≥4.5% — restrictive monetary policy territory
Elevated rates above 4.5% indicate restrictive policy that slows growth and increases recession risk
Federal Funds Rate ≥5.5% — crisis-risk zone
Rates above 5.5% historically precede recessions (2000 dot-com, 2007 pre-GFC)
US Treasury 3M/10Y spread inverted — recession warning
Inverted yield curve has preceded every US recession since 1950s. Bond market pricing recession risk
Deeply inverted 3M/10Y curve (>-50bp) — severe recession signal
Deep inversions indicate bond market pricing severe economic contraction
Fed Funds rate in restrictive territory (>5%) — tight monetary policy
High rates slow economy and increase financial stress on leveraged borrowers
Fed running quantitative tightening >$90B/month — major liquidity drain
Rapid balance sheet reduction drains liquidity from financial system
Fed hiking >25bp per meeting — aggressive tightening pace
Rapid rate increases risk breaking something in financial system
Fed making emergency rate cuts — crisis response
Emergency cuts only happen when Fed sees severe crisis requiring immediate action
Fed balance sheet shrinking >2% MoM — rapid liquidity withdrawal
Rapid balance sheet shrinkage can trigger liquidity crunch
Fed restarting quantitative easing — crisis liquidity injection
Fed only restarts QE in crisis to prevent financial system collapse
ECB deposit rate >4% — tight policy for European economy
High ECB rates stress European banks and sovereign debt markets
BOJ ending decades of ZIRP/NIRP — major regime change
BOJ policy shift ends yen carry trade and reverses global liquidity flows
BOJ maintaining yield curve control — JGB market distortion
YCC distorts bond market pricing and creates instability risk
BOJ in rate hiking cycle — global liquidity drain
BOJ hikes strengthen yen and reverse decades of yen carry trades
PBoC cutting rates aggressively — China stimulus mode
PBoC easing signals Chinese economy in distress requiring stimulus
Real interest rates negative (rates < inflation) — excessive ease
Negative real rates indicate central banks behind curve, risk of inflation or bubbles
Real rates >3% — very tight monetary conditions
Very high real rates slow economy and increase debt service stress
3+ major central banks cutting rates simultaneously — global crisis response
Coordinated easing only happens in severe global crises (2008, 2020)
3+ major central banks hiking simultaneously — global liquidity drain
Synchronized tightening drains global liquidity and increases crisis risk
Multiple major policy meetings imminent — policy uncertainty spike
Policy meetings create uncertainty and volatility around potential surprises
CPI ≥4.0% — above Fed target
Inflation above 4% forces Fed tightening and raises recession risk
CPI ≥6.0% — crisis-level inflation
Inflation at 6%+ indicates severe pricing instability requiring aggressive Fed action
Unemployment Rate ≥4.5% — labor market deterioration
Rising unemployment signals economic contraction and weakening demand
Unemployment Rate ≥6.0% — recession indicator
Unemployment at 6%+ is a strong recession signal and indicates broad economic distress
Real GDP growth <0% — recession
Negative GDP growth defines technical recession and indicates severe economic contraction
Real GDP growth <1.5% — pre-recession warning
GDP below 1.5% indicates weak growth and elevated recession risk
10Y Treasury Yield <2.5% — investors seeking safety
Very low yields indicate flight to safety as investors anticipate economic weakness
10Y Treasury Yield >5.0% — bond market stress
Very high yields indicate bond market selling pressure and fiscal/inflation concerns
High rates + High unemployment + Weak GDP — multiple recession indicators
When 2+ recession indicators trigger simultaneously, recession probability is very high
High inflation + Weak growth + High unemployment — stagflation scenario
Stagflation (1970s-style) is policy nightmare with high inflation during economic contraction
Commodity price volatility elevated — market instability
High volatility indicates uncertainty and potential supply disruptions
Supply chain metrics showing elevated volatility — instability
Volatility indicates disruptions and uncertainty in global logistics
Gold >$4500/oz — safe haven panic buying
Extreme gold prices indicate fear and flight to safety
Gold up >15% (3M) — crisis hedge demand
Rapid gold appreciation signals investors pricing crisis scenarios
WTI crude oil >$120/barrel — energy crisis
Oil above $120 severely impacts economy, increases inflation and recession risk
WTI crude oil >$100/barrel — inflationary pressure
Oil above $100 increases inflation and consumer cost pressures
Oil prices up >20% in 1 month — supply shock
Rapid oil price increases signal supply disruption or geopolitical crisis
Oil price volatility >40% — energy market instability
High volatility creates planning uncertainty for businesses and consumers
Natural gas up >30% (1M) — energy supply shock
Gas spikes impact heating costs and power generation
US Strategic Petroleum Reserve <50% of average — energy security risk
Depleted reserves reduce ability to respond to supply disruptions
US Strategic Petroleum Reserve <70% of average — reduced buffer
Lower reserves provide less cushion against supply shocks
Strategic reserves <20 days of supply — minimal buffer
Low days of supply means limited ability to weather disruptions
Energy security index <50/100 — severe energy shortage risk
Energy crises disrupt economy and can cause power outages
Energy security index <70/100 — elevated energy stress
Energy stress increases costs and vulnerability to disruptions
Wheat prices up >30% year-over-year — food security threat
Wheat is staple food - price spikes cause hunger and social instability
Corn prices up >30% year-over-year — food inflation
Corn feeds livestock and humans - price spikes ripple through food system
2+ major grains up >15% (3M) — food supply disruption
Multiple grain spikes indicate systemic food supply issues
Wheat reserves <85% of average — reduced buffer
Low reserves mean less ability to stabilize prices during shortages
Corn reserves <80 days of supply — tight supply
Low days of supply increases vulnerability to weather or crop failures
Food security index <50/100 — severe food shortage risk
Food crises cause humanitarian disasters and political instability
Food security index <70/100 — elevated food stress
Food stress increases prices and reduces access for vulnerable populations
Copper down >-20% YoY — recession signal
Copper is economic barometer - crashes precede recessions
Copper up >30% YoY — supply shortage or inflation
Copper spikes signal supply constraints or overheating economy
2+ critical materials at high supply risk — material shortages
Multiple critical material shortages cascade through supply chains
1 critical material at severe supply risk — material constraint
Single material shortage can bottleneck entire production chains
3+ materials at high supply risk — material stress
Multiple material risks increase vulnerability to supply shocks
Rare earth high supply risk + >20% price spike (3M)
Rare earths are critical for electronics, EVs, and defense - shortages are severe
Lithium stockpiles <30 days — EV battery constraint
Lithium shortages constrain EV production and battery supply
Cobalt high risk + <30 days stockpile — battery crisis
Cobalt is essential for batteries - shortages limit EV and electronics production
Critical-severity commodity supply disruptions active
Critical disruptions can cause shortages and price shocks
2+ high-severity commodity disruptions — supply chain stress
Multiple simultaneous disruptions compound supply problems
Commodity security index <60/100 — broad commodity stress
Broad commodity stress indicates systemic supply and price problems
Baltic Dry Index >250% of historical average — shipping crisis
Extreme freight costs indicate severe shipping capacity constraints
Baltic Dry Index >180% of average — high shipping costs
Elevated freight increases costs and reduces trade volumes
Shipping costs up >30% (1M) — rapid logistics deterioration
Rapid freight increases signal sudden capacity shortages
Shanghai Freight Index >200% of average — container shortage
Container shortages disrupt global trade and increase costs
Major ports at critical congestion levels — severe bottlenecks
Critical congestion creates massive delays and supply chain breakdowns
2+ major ports severely congested — widespread delays
Multiple congested ports indicate systemic port capacity issues
Average port congestion >60% — global port stress
High average congestion shows systemic problems across port network
LA/Long Beach ports >70% congestion — US import bottleneck
LA ports handle 40% of US container imports - congestion impacts economy
2+ ports with >48hr vessel wait times — severe congestion
Long wait times increase costs and reduce effective shipping capacity
Semiconductor lead times >26 weeks — severe chip shortage
Extreme lead times halt production of cars, electronics, appliances
Semiconductor lead times >20 weeks — chip supply stress
Long lead times constrain production and increase costs
Chip lead times increased +4 weeks (3M) — deteriorating supply
Worsening lead times signal supply not keeping up with demand
Semiconductor shortage index >70/100 — widespread shortages
High shortage index indicates broad unavailability across chip types
Semiconductor fab utilization >95% — no spare capacity
Maxed capacity means unable to respond to demand increases
Chip inventory <6 weeks — minimal buffer
Low inventory makes supply chain vulnerable to any disruption
Global supply chain health <40/100 — severe disruption
Supply chain breakdown causes shortages, inflation, and economic damage
Supply chain health <60/100 — elevated stress
Supply chain stress increases costs and delivery times
Shipping health index <50/100 — maritime crisis
Shipping breakdown disrupts global trade flows
Port health index <50/100 — port system failure
Port failures create massive bottlenecks in global trade
Manufacturing supply health <50/100 — production crisis
Manufacturing supply failures cause production shutdowns
Bitcoin -10% in 24h — significant crypto selloff
BTC drops >10% often precede equity market selloffs by hours or days
Bitcoin -15% in 24h — extreme crypto distress
BTC crashes >15% signal panic selling and potential contagion to traditional markets
Bitcoin -5% to -10% in 24h — early warning signal
Moderate BTC declines often serve as early warning before broader risk-off moves
Bitcoin +5% in 24h — risk-on indicator
Strong BTC gains suggest market confidence and risk appetite
Bitcoin absolute move >10% in 24h — high instability
Even upside volatility >10% signals market instability and potential reversal risk
Bitcoin absolute move <2% in 24h — low volatility, market calm
Low BTC volatility indicates stable market conditions without stress
BTC and ETH both -5% in 24h — broad crypto market stress
When both BTC and ETH decline together, indicates broad crypto sector weakness
MERVAL (USD) flat while FX moves — confirms stress is FX-driven, not equity-driven
If equities don't drop with FX stress, confirms crisis is FX/sovereign driven rather than a broad equity sell-off.
Bitcoin data unavailable — no signal evaluation possible
Informational signal indicating crypto data is not available for evaluation
Dezessete regiões geográficas com cobertura de mercado líquido + dezesseis países acompanhados apenas por notícias + sete setores sintéticos. As regiões com dados de mercado abrangem economias que originaram ou serviram de canal de transmissão para a maioria das crises financeiras modernas (Ásia em 1997, crise financeira global em 2008, zona do euro em 2010–12, emergentes em 2018, COVID em 2020, LDI no Reino Unido em 2022, bancos regionais em 2023 etc.).
Países acompanhados apenas por notícias (Bolívia, Peru, Chile, Venezuela, Colômbia, Equador, Nigéria, África do Sul, Egito, Indonésia, Vietnã, Tailândia, Filipinas, Rússia, Polônia, Ucrânia) não têm proxies de mercado líquidos listados nos EUA — sua pontuação de crise é calculada inteiramente a partir do Google News RSS de cada região (densidade de palavras-chave de pânico + sentimento + volume de manchetes). O teto de pontuação é menor que o das regiões de mercado, e o índice global composto os pondera em 0.3× para evitar que uma única manchete local domine o indicador principal.
Origem da maioria das crises financeiras modernas. Bancos regionais (KRE), crédito (HYG, SRLN, LQD), VIX e REITs de escritórios são os sinais centrais.
Linhas de falha da união bancária. Volatilidade do STOXX50E, bancos europeus (EUFN), spreads soberanos da periferia.
Distinto da UE após o Brexit. Estresse no mercado de gilts, libra esterlina (GBP), política do BoE, risco estrutural das estratégias LDI.
O carry trade do iene é um canal global de transmissão de liquidez. Volatilidade do Nikkei (VNKY), JGBs, política do BoJ, USD/JPY.
Hong Kong e o restante da Ásia, excluindo o Japão. ETF Ásia ex-Japão (AAXJ), HSBC HK (0005.HK), Hang Seng (HSI), setor imobiliário de Hong Kong.
Termômetro de semicondutores e exportações. KOSPI (EWY), KB Financial, Samsung, won (KRW).
Movida pelo setor imobiliário e pelas políticas do governo. FXI, bancos chineses, incorporadoras imobiliárias, fixing do yuan (CNY).
Maior economia emergente. Nifty, bancos, rúpia (INR), política do RBI.
Termômetro de commodities entre os emergentes. Bovespa, bancos brasileiros, real (BRL), ligação com o minério de ferro.
Emergente atrelado aos EUA. Peso (MXN), IPC, bancos, sensibilidade ao comércio transfronteiriço.
Estresse cambial e soberano crônico. Câmbio blue-chip swap (CCL), Merval, probabilidade de default.
Estudo de caso de crise cambial. Lira (TRY), BIST, bancos turcos, credibilidade do banco central.
Proxy de commodities ligado à China. ASX, AUD, minério de ferro, mercado imobiliário residencial.
Estresse soberano dependente do petróleo e pressão sobre as paridades fixas com o USD durante choques de commodities.
Proxy de risco geopolítico — sanções, interrupções no fornecimento de petróleo, escalada regional.
Concentração em semicondutores e risco geopolítico no Estreito de Taiwan. TSMC (TSM), TAIEX, TWD.
Cesta composta de emergentes. EEM, EMB, EMHY — captura a dinâmica de fuga de capitais.
Setores sintéticos são visões transversais que não estão vinculadas a nenhum país específico. Eles dão ao painel visibilidade sobre canais de estresse que não respeitam fronteiras geográficas.
Estresse nos principais pares de moedas — DXY, pares de carry, cesta de moedas emergentes.
Volatilidade de BTC/ETH, perda de paridade de stablecoins, regime de correlação entre cripto e ações.
Divergência de política monetária, probabilidade de ação emergencial, proximidade das datas de reunião.
Petróleo, ouro, metais industriais, agrícolas — índice composto de estresse.
Baltic Dry, frete de contêineres (SCFI), movimentação portuária, semicondutores.
Tom do GDELT, densidade de eventos, diversidade de fontes — sinal geopolítico e de políticas públicas.
Inflação, emprego, crescimento, curva de juros — indicadores clássicos de recessão.
O nível de risco global exibido no topo do painel não é uma média simples. As regiões são ponderadas por sua importância sistêmica — uma leitura de FASE 1 nos EUA se propaga de forma diferente de uma leitura de FASE 1 na Argentina, porque os EUA são um centro global de financiamento e a Argentina não. Os pesos são definidos de forma estática com base na participação no PIB, no tamanho do sistema financeiro e na frequência histórica de contágio, e podem ser consultados no arquivo region-config.
O indicador global combina três elementos:
A visão de contágio modela o estresse como um grafo direcionado entre regiões. Cada aresta é definida por uma correlação de referência, uma defasagem (em dias) derivada da propagação histórica de crises e um estado mínimo de origem que ativa o caminho. Por exemplo, EUA FASE 1 → Ásia FASE 1 é uma transmissão historicamente bem documentada, com defasagem de cerca de 2 dias.
Os caminhos ficam ativos quando a região de origem atinge ou ultrapassa o estado mínimo do caminho. Eles são confirmados quando a região de destino também se move. Essa abordagem permite ao painel distinguir “isso pode se espalhar” de “isso está se espalhando”. O modo de simulação na página Contágio permite acionar uma região manualmente e avançar no tempo para ver a propagação implícita.
A visão de contágio responde “para onde o estresse vai se espalhar?”. A visão de coordenação responde “as relações entre as regiões ainda se sustentam?” — ou seja, se o próprio regime de correlação se rompeu. Pontuação composta em [0,1], com severidade em níveis NONE / WARNING / ELEVATED / CRITICAL, calculada a cada tick a partir de sete subdetectores:
Os fatores de cada subpontuação (tags de região, pares desacoplados) e os diagnósticos compostos aparecem no card de coordenação do painel. A pontuação composta também alimenta três novas condições de Cisne Negro: DECOUPLING, HAVEN_INVERSION, VELOCITY_BREAK.
Estimador de cruzamento de limites. Separadamente, um solucionador cinemático (s(t) = s0 + v·t + 0.5·a·t²) por região prevê quando cada uma cruzará MONITORAR / GATILHO / ESCALAR com a velocidade + aceleração atuais. Menor raiz positiva dentro de um horizonte de 60 ticks. Exibido no card “Cruzamentos iminentes”, que se oculta automaticamente quando não há cruzamento projetado para os próximos 30 minutos.
O tom das notícias e da geopolítica vem do Projeto GDELT, que publica um fluxo contínuo de eventos mundiais codificados por tom, atores e localização. Para cada região, coletamos eventos filtrados pelo conjunto de países da região, agregamos o tom médio (uma escala normalizada de −10 a +10) e acompanhamos a densidade de eventos (quantos eventos relevantes para crises ocorrem por unidade de tempo) e a diversidade de fontes (quantas fontes de notícias distintas cobrem o mesmo evento — um indicador de histórias reais vs. fabricadas).
Os sinais de notícias contribuem com menos pontos do que os sinais de mercado porque, na maior parte do tempo, o tom reage depois do preço — mas eles disparam antes em cenários geopolíticos nos quais os mercados ainda não precificaram o evento. Essa separação mantém o painel honesto: se uma região está calma nos mercados, mas agitada no noticiário, você vê os dois canais e decide em qual deles agir.
Os contadores de palavras-chave de pânico e de sentimento negativo são ponderados pelo nível de reputação do veículo de origem antes da normalização em percentual. Agências de notícias (Reuters, Bloomberg, FT, WSJ, AP, AFP) têm peso 1.0; emissoras e veículos tradicionais (BBC, CNBC, NYT, Guardian), 0.7–0.9; imprensa financeira, 0.5–0.7; agregadores desconhecidos, um conservador 0.3. Sem esse sistema de níveis, um feed cheio de blogs de baixa qualidade gritando “crise” inflava a pontuação da mesma forma que 10 manchetes da Reuters. A tabela de reputação fica em news-analyzer.ts e é a fonte única da verdade, testada em news-analyzer.test.ts.
Cada tick do cron registra o resultado por feed (ok / empty / http-error / fetch-error) e a contagem de itens, expostos via /api/health em newsFeeds. Se o card de uma região parecer inativo, esse endpoint mostra se o próprio RSS de origem está falhando — útil para diagnosticar limites de taxa do Google ou bloqueios regionais.
Dois pontos do painel usam grandes modelos de linguagem:
O modelo roda em uma cadeia de fallback com vários provedores: primeiro Groq (Llama 3.3 70B Versatile), depois Cerebras (Llama 3.3 70B) e, por fim, OpenRouter — cujo modelo principal é o DeepSeek R1 (deepseek-r1:free), com Qwen3 235B (thinking) e Llama 3.3 70B Instruct como alternativas adicionais. A cadeia avança automaticamente para o próximo provedor ou modelo diante de qualquer limite de taxa ou erro, para que os resumos continuem sendo gerados dentro das cotas gratuitas. Todos os prompts têm duas restrições: o prompt de sistema proíbe números inventados, e o prompt do usuário contém o conjunto atual de sinais do painel como entrada estruturada. O modelo resume e explica — ele não calcula pontuações, não busca dados novos nem faz previsões além do que os sinais indicam.
Textos gerados por IA ainda podem estar errados. Eles podem enfatizar o sinal errado, usar linguagem excessivamente confiante ou interpretar mal um limite. Trate os resumos de IA como uma camada de síntese sobre os números, não como um substituto para você mesmo lê-los.
Yahoo Finance
Dados de preços de ações, crédito, ETFs e volatilidade — a espinha dorsal de todos os sinais baseados em mercado.
The GDELT Project
Fluxo global de tom das notícias e de eventos geopolíticos. Usado na região de Inteligência e nos sinais da categoria Notícias.
Polymarket
Probabilidades de mercados de previsão, formadas coletivamente, para eventos relevantes a crises. Exibidas na página Previsões.
Publicações de bancos centrais
Fed, BCE, BoJ, BoE, PBoC, BNS, RBA, BoK e outros — taxas básicas de juros, calendários de reuniões, operações emergenciais.
FRED (St. Louis Fed)
Séries macroeconômicas — inflação (CPI), desemprego, curva de juros, indicadores de recessão para o setor MACRO.
CNN Fear & Greed, Google Trends, VIX
Índices compostos de sentimento usados na página Sentimento.
Índices de frete marítimo (Baltic Dry, SCFI)
Sinais da cadeia de suprimentos — custos de frete como indicador de estresse na economia real.
Creditamos as fontes de dados em todas as páginas em que é possível e usamos cada fonte dentro de seus termos publicados. Se você é detentor de direitos e vê algo que precisa ser corrigido, entre em contato pela página de Contato.
Um sistema de pontuação só é tão bom quanto sua honestidade sobre o que ele deixa escapar. Estas são as coisas que sabemos que este painel não faz bem, ou não consegue fazer de forma alguma:
Trate o painel como um monitor sistemático do estresse que já está visível nos mercados e no noticiário — não como uma previsão, nem como uma visão completa do risco global.
O Japão foi separado de ASIA. ASIA agora é “Ásia-Pacífico (excl. Japão)”, com proxies de Hong Kong/Hang Seng (AAXJ, 0005.HK, HSI). O Japão (JP) é a única fonte da métrica de volatilidade do Nikkei (vnky). Seul passou a ser identificada como “Coreia do Sul” de forma consistente em todo o produto.
Publicamos esta página de metodologia como o livro de regras completo. O catálogo de sinais agora é gerado diretamente a partir do glossário de sinais do projeto, garantindo que a documentação e o motor nunca divirjam.
Adicionadas as páginas Preditivo e Previsões como conceitos distintos (previsões internas de ML vs. mercados de previsão externos).
Perguntas, correções ou sugestões de um sinal que deveríamos adicionar? Escreva para nós pela página de Contato. A metodologia é um documento vivo; nós a atualizamos sempre que sinais são adicionados, desativados ou têm seus limites recalibrados.