United States

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US Banks Drawdown+3점

US Regional Banks (KRE) -8% in 5 days — banking sector stress중요한 이유: Regional banks are first to show stress in financial system issues

US Real Estate Drawdown+2점

Office REITs (VNO, SLG, BXP) -5% in 5 days — commercial real estate stress중요한 이유: Office REITs are canaries in coal mine for credit/liquidity issues

US Credit Stress+2점

Senior Loans (SRLN) underperform High Yield (HYG) — credit quality deterioration중요한 이유: Senior loans should be safer than HY bonds. Underperformance signals credit stress

US Credit Drawdown+2점

US credit proxy -5% in 5 days — broad credit deterioration중요한 이유: Sustained credit drawdown indicates deepening financial stress in the US

S&P 500 Drawdown+2점

S&P 500 (SPY) -5% in 5 days — broad market weakness중요한 이유: Equity weakness confirms stress is affecting broader market

US Dollar Stress+2점

USD index move >3% in 3 days — dollar volatility중요한 이유: Rapid dollar moves signal global risk-off or flight to safety dynamics

VIX Elevated+1점

VIX above 25 — elevated market fear중요한 이유: Elevated VIX indicates market uncertainty and potential for sharp moves

US Market Stable+0점

S&P 500 (SPY) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off중요한 이유: Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to specific sectors

T-Bill Flight to Safety+4점

T-Bills (BIL) price up + volume ≥2× average — investors hiding in safety중요한 이유: Investors hiding in T-Bills = expecting market stress - core thesis pillar

VIX Velocity Spike+2점

VIX rising faster than 2%/minute — panic acceleration중요한 이유: Rapid VIX acceleration indicates sudden fear spike even before absolute thresholds hit

Banking Velocity Stress+2점

Regional banks (KRE) dropping faster than 1.5%/minute — rapid banking stress중요한 이유: Sudden banking sector drops indicate liquidity or confidence crisis developing

Credit Velocity Stress+2점

High Yield (HYG) dropping faster than 0.8%/minute — credit spread widening acceleration중요한 이유: Rapid credit selloffs signal flight to quality before spreads hit critical levels

추적 중인 금융상품

SPY — SPDR S&P 500 ETF

Broadest US equity benchmark. A drawdown here confirms stress is systemic, not sector-specific.안정 5d > -1% · 주의 5d -1% to -3% · 스트레스 5d < -3%

KRE — SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF

Regional banks are the canary in the coal mine — first to show stress from credit tightening, deposit flight, or CRE exposure.안정 5d > -3% · 주의 5d -3% to -8% · 스트레스 5d < -8%

HYG — iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond ETF

High yield bonds price credit risk directly. Weakness here means the market is demanding higher compensation for default risk.안정 5d > -1% · 주의 5d -1% to -3% · 스트레스 5d < -3%

SRLN — SPDR Blackstone Senior Loan ETF

Senior loans sit above HY in the capital structure. When SRLN underperforms HYG, it signals credit quality deterioration at the safest level.안정 Outperforming HYG · 주의 Flat vs HYG · 스트레스 Underperforming HYG by >1%

BIL — SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF

T-Bills are the ultimate safe haven. Price increases + high volume = investors fleeing risk assets for safety.안정 Flat, normal volume · 주의 Price up, volume 1.5× · 스트레스 Price up, volume ≥2×

이 지역에 영향을 준 과거 위기

• Global Financial CrisisSep 2008 – Mar 2009

  Lehman Brothers collapse triggered a global banking crisis, credit freeze, and deepest recession since the Great Depression.

  VIX 최고치 80.86 · S&P 500 하락폭 -56.8%

• COVID-19 CrashFeb 2020 – Mar 2020

  Fastest bear market in history. Global lockdowns caused simultaneous supply and demand shocks across all asset classes.

  VIX 최고치 82.69 · S&P 500 하락폭 -33.9%

• SVB / Regional Banking CrisisMar 2023 – May 2023

  Silicon Valley Bank collapsed in 48 hours, triggering regional bank runs (Signature, First Republic). Fed backstop via BTFP prevented systemic contagion.

  VIX 최고치 26.52 · S&P 500 하락폭 -7.8%