This is the maximum severity level. Markets are experiencing broad dislocations, liquidity is evaporating, and normal price discovery is impaired. Expect emergency policy responses.
Forced selling across asset classes. -20% to -40% equity drawdowns. Credit markets seize. Only the most liquid instruments trade freely.
Bid-ask spreads blow out. Market makers step back. ETF discounts to NAV appear. Repo markets may show stress.
Expect emergency rate cuts, QE programs, lending facilities, fiscal packages. Past episodes: TARP (2008), ECB "whatever it takes" (2012), Fed unlimited QE (2020).
The best buying opportunities in a generation occur at PHASE 2. But timing the bottom is nearly impossible. Dollar-cost averaging and quality focus historically rewarded within 6-18 months.
PHASE 2 is rare — only 3-4 episodes per decade. GFC 2008, European sovereign crisis peak 2012, COVID March 2020. Every PHASE 2 in the last 50 years was followed by massive central bank intervention.
2-8 weeks of acute stress, 3-12 months to full recovery
Crisis keywords in 3+ regions simultaneously — contagion
Multi-region crises indicate contagion or coordinated events
>20% of news contains crisis keywords — media panic
High panic keyword percentage indicates widespread crisis coverage
Very recent crisis news (<30 min avg) with high panic — breaking event
Fresh panic news indicates new crisis developments
5+ crisis articles in 30 minutes — breaking crisis
High-frequency crisis news indicates rapidly developing situation
News Analysis is tracked via local news only — no liquid market instruments available. Scoring uses the per-region news feed below.
Chaque signal ci-dessous ajoute des points au score de crise de cette région tant que sa condition est remplie. Le total correspond à un état de crise selon les seuils indiqués plus haut. Le règlement complet se trouve sur la page de méthodologie.
Les définitions des signaux et des instruments sont affichées en anglais, telles qu'elles figurent dans les fichiers de règles.