- Fed Funds Rate Elevated+2 pts
- Federal Funds Rate ≥4.5% — restrictive monetary policy territoryPourquoi c'est important : Elevated rates above 4.5% indicate restrictive policy that slows growth and increases recession risk
- Fed Funds Rate Very High+3 pts
- Federal Funds Rate ≥5.5% — crisis-risk zonePourquoi c'est important : Rates above 5.5% historically precede recessions (2000 dot-com, 2007 pre-GFC)
- Inflation Elevated+2 pts
- CPI ≥4.0% — above Fed targetPourquoi c'est important : Inflation above 4% forces Fed tightening and raises recession risk
- Inflation Crisis+3 pts
- CPI ≥6.0% — crisis-level inflationPourquoi c'est important : Inflation at 6%+ indicates severe pricing instability requiring aggressive Fed action
- Unemployment Rising+2 pts
- Unemployment Rate ≥4.5% — labor market deteriorationPourquoi c'est important : Rising unemployment signals economic contraction and weakening demand
- Unemployment High+4 pts
- Unemployment Rate ≥6.0% — recession indicatorPourquoi c'est important : Unemployment at 6%+ is a strong recession signal and indicates broad economic distress
- GDP Contraction+5 pts
- Real GDP growth <0% — recessionPourquoi c'est important : Negative GDP growth defines technical recession and indicates severe economic contraction
- GDP Weak Growth+2 pts
- Real GDP growth <1.5% — pre-recession warningPourquoi c'est important : GDP below 1.5% indicates weak growth and elevated recession risk
- Treasury Flight to Safety+2 pts
- 10Y Treasury Yield <2.5% — investors seeking safetyPourquoi c'est important : Very low yields indicate flight to safety as investors anticipate economic weakness
- Treasury Market Stress+2 pts
- 10Y Treasury Yield >5.0% — bond market stressPourquoi c'est important : Very high yields indicate bond market selling pressure and fiscal/inflation concerns
- Combined Recession Risk+5 pts
- High rates + High unemployment + Weak GDP — multiple recession indicatorsPourquoi c'est important : When 2+ recession indicators trigger simultaneously, recession probability is very high
- Stagflation Risk+4 pts
- High inflation + Weak growth + High unemployment — stagflation scenarioPourquoi c'est important : Stagflation (1970s-style) is policy nightmare with high inflation during economic contraction