South Korea

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PHASE 1

Score de Crise8.0/15.0

KOSPI Vol

46.4

Signaux

4/7

Sécurité

Invalidateurs

0/0

Actions

Réduire l'exposition au risqueActiver les protocoles de couverture

This is not a false alarm. Multiple independent signals are confirming stress. The pattern of signals matters: banking + credit stress together has historically been the most dangerous combination.

Equities

▼Broad weakness

Multiple sectors under pressure. Drawdowns of -5% to -10% are common at this level before stabilization or further escalation.

Treasuries/Bunds

▲Rally (flight to quality)

Government bonds typically rally 1-3% as capital seeks safety. Yield curves flatten or invert further.

Volatility

▲Spiking

VIX typically reaches 25-35 range. Put/call ratios spike. Correlation across assets increases, reducing diversification benefit.

Historical Context

Developed market PHASE 1: think Aug 2015, Dec 2018, Mar 2023 (SVB). Most lasted 2-4 weeks. Resolution came via central bank action or systemic risk containment.

Typical Duration

2-4 weeks

What's Happening

4 signalsfiring · 8.0/15.0 pts

1 point away from escalating to PHASE 2. Key driver: KR_intel_crisis_themes in Other.

Other5pts

KR_intel_crisis_themes3.00

KR_vol_spike46.39

Equity & Volatility3pts

KOSPI Drawdown-5.2%EWY

South Korea ETF (EWY) -5% in 5 days — broad Korean equity weakness

Broad equity weakness confirms stress is affecting the wider Korean market

South Korea Volatility Elevated46.39EWY

Korean market volatility above 35 — elevated uncertainty

Elevated volatility indicates market uncertainty, often tech/semiconductor driven

Symboles

South Korea ETF↓↓

EWY

$176.41

-5.4%

-5.2%

-3.5%

0.0%

RVol

1.6

KB Financial↓

$122.14

-1.9%

+0.3%

-3.3%

0.0%

RVol

1.1

Samsung↓↓

005930.KS

$262000.00

-3.7%

-2.4%

0.0%

RVol

1.3

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Signals

Score: 8.0/15.0|Monitor: 5Trigger: 7Escalate: 9

Triggered (4)

pct_change(market,5) <= -5 (moderate) OR <= -8 (severe)-5.2+2

volatility > 3546.4+1

volatility > 4546.4+2

KR_intel_crisis_themes

14 crisis themes detected: WAR, ATTACK, SANCTIONS3.0+3

Inactive (3)

pct_change(banks,1) <= -3 OR pct_change(banks,5) <= -50.3+0

pct_change(tech,5) <= -7 (moderate) OR <= -10 (severe)-2.4+0

pct_change(market,5) >= -3-5.2+0

Signal Contribution

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News Feed

Sentiment des Actualités

Comment le score de cette région est calculé

Chaque signal ci-dessous ajoute des points au score de crise de cette région tant que sa condition est remplie. Le total correspond à un état de crise selon les seuils indiqués plus haut. Le règlement complet se trouve sur la page de méthodologie.

Les définitions des signaux et des instruments sont affichées en anglais, telles qu'elles figurent dans les fichiers de règles.

Signaux

South Korea Banks Drawdown+3 pts: Korean banks (KB, SHG) -8% in 5 days — banking sector stressPourquoi c'est important : Korean banks are exposed to household debt and chaebol risk; drawdowns signal systemic concerns
South Korea Credit Stress+2 pts: South Korea ETF (EWY) credit component underperforming — credit deteriorationPourquoi c'est important : Credit stress in Korea signals tightening conditions and potential tech sector contagion
South Korea Credit Drawdown+2 pts: South Korea credit proxy -5% in 5 days — broad credit deteriorationPourquoi c'est important : Sustained credit drawdown indicates deepening financial stress in Korea
KOSPI Drawdown+2 pts: South Korea ETF (EWY) -5% in 5 days — broad Korean equity weaknessPourquoi c'est important : Broad equity weakness confirms stress is affecting the wider Korean market
Won FX Stress+2 pts: KRW/USD move >3% in 3 days — won depreciation pressurePourquoi c'est important : Rapid won weakening signals capital outflows and potential BoK intervention
South Korea Volatility Elevated+1 pts: Korean market volatility above 35 — elevated uncertaintyPourquoi c'est important : Elevated volatility indicates market uncertainty, often tech/semiconductor driven
South Korea Market Stable+0 pts: South Korea ETF (EWY) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-offPourquoi c'est important : Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to specific sectors
South Korea Real Estate Drawdown+2 pts: South Korea REITs proxy -10% in 5 days — property sector stressPourquoi c'est important : Korean real estate stress signals household debt concerns and potential banking contagion
South Korea Market Stable+0 pts: South Korea ETF (EWY) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-offPourquoi c'est important : Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to specific sectors

Instruments suivis

MKT — iShares MSCI South Korea ETF (EWY) / KOSPI: Broadest Korea equity proxy. Heavily weighted to semiconductors (Samsung, SK Hynix). A bellwether for global tech demand.Calme 5d > -1% · Vigilance 5d -1% to -3% · Tension 5d < -5%
BANK — Korean Banks (KB Financial, Shinhan): Korean banks are exposed to household debt (among highest in OECD) and chaebol risk. Drawdowns signal domestic financial stress.Calme 5d > -3% · Vigilance 5d -3% to -8% · Tension 5d < -8%
CRD — South Korea Credit Proxy (via EWY): Korean credit conditions. Tightening here can cascade through the highly leveraged household sector.Calme 5d > -1% · Vigilance 5d -1% to -3% · Tension 5d < -5%
TECH — Samsung Electronics (005930.KS): Samsung is ~20% of KOSPI. As the world's largest memory chip maker, it's a proxy for global semiconductor demand and tech capex cycles.Calme 5d > -2% · Vigilance 5d -2% to -10% · Tension 5d < -10%
FX — Korean Won (KRW/USD): Won weakness signals capital outflows and risk-off sentiment. Korea's export-dependent economy makes FX moves highly impactful.Calme 3d < +1% · Vigilance 3d +1% to +3% · Tension 3d > +3% depreciation

South Korea

So What?

What's Happening

Symboles

Signals

Sentiment des Actualités

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Comment le score de cette région est calculé

Signaux

Instruments suivis