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GCC / Middle East

Récupération...
à l'instant
NORMAL
Score de Crise2.0/15.0
KSA Vol
12.1
Signaux
2/7
Sécurité
OK
Invalidateurs
0/0
Actions
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What's Happening

1 signalfiring · 2.0/15.0 pts
3 points away from escalating to MONITOR. Key driver: GCC_intel_civil_unrest in Other.
Other2pts
+2
GCC_intel_civil_unrest2.00

Symboles

Saudi ETF↓
KSA
$36.09
2d
-2.2%
5d
-0.0%
1m
-5.6%
3m
0.0%
1y
0.0%
RVol
2.0
Saudi Banks↓
1120.SR
$62.30
2d
+0.2%
5d
-0.2%
1m
-5.2%
3m
0.0%
1y
0.0%
RVol
0.6
Oil↑
USO
$147.65
2d
+1.9%
5d
-1.6%
1m
-6.8%
3m
0.0%
1y
0.0%
RVol
0.8
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Signals

Score: 2.0/15.0|Monitor: 5Trigger: 7Escalate: 9
Triggered (1)
GCC_intel_civil_unrest
2.0+2
Checks Passing (1)
-0.0OK
Inactive (5)
-0.2+0
GCC_oil_shock
-1.6+0
GCC_sovereign_stress
0.8+0
-0.0+0
12.1+0
Signal Contribution
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Sentiment des Actualités

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Comment le score de cette région est calculé

Chaque signal ci-dessous ajoute des points au score de crise de cette région tant que sa condition est remplie. Le total correspond à un état de crise selon les seuils indiqués plus haut. Le règlement complet se trouve sur la page de méthodologie.

Les définitions des signaux et des instruments sont affichées en anglais, telles qu'elles figurent dans les fichiers de règles.

Signaux

GCC Banks Drawdown+3 pts
Saudi Arabia ETF (KSA) banks component -8% in 5 days — GCC banking stressPourquoi c'est important : GCC banks are heavily exposed to oil revenue and sovereign wealth; drawdowns signal fiscal stress
GCC Credit Stress+2 pts
EM bond proxy (EMB) underperforming — GCC credit deteriorationPourquoi c'est important : Credit stress in GCC signals oil-related fiscal concerns and sovereign risk
GCC Credit Drawdown+2 pts
GCC credit proxy -5% in 5 days — broad credit deteriorationPourquoi c'est important : Sustained credit drawdown indicates deepening financial stress in GCC
GCC Market Drawdown+2 pts
Saudi Arabia ETF (KSA) -5% in 5 days — broad GCC equity weaknessPourquoi c'est important : Broad GCC equity weakness confirms stress is affecting the wider regional market
GCC FX Stress+2 pts
USD peg pressure detected — potential devaluation riskPourquoi c'est important : GCC currencies are pegged to USD; stress here signals extreme fiscal pressure
GCC Volatility Elevated+1 pts
GCC market volatility above 35 — elevated uncertaintyPourquoi c'est important : Elevated volatility indicates market uncertainty, often oil-driven
GCC Market Stable+0 pts
Saudi Arabia ETF (KSA) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-offPourquoi c'est important : Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to oil sector
GCC Real Estate Drawdown+2 pts
Gulf real estate -10% in 5 days — property sector stressPourquoi c'est important : GCC real estate is heavily tied to oil revenue and sovereign spending
GCC Market Stable+0 pts
Saudi Arabia ETF (KSA) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-offPourquoi c'est important : Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to oil sector

Instruments suivis

MKT — iShares MSCI Saudi Arabia ETF (KSA)
Saudi Arabia is the GCC's largest economy. Equity performance is tightly correlated with oil prices and Vision 2030 progress.Calme 5d > -1% · Vigilance 5d -1% to -5% · Tension 5d < -8%
BANK — Al Rajhi Bank (1120.SR)
GCC banks are heavily exposed to oil revenue and sovereign wealth. Drawdowns signal fiscal stress and potential peg pressure.Calme 5d > -3% · Vigilance 5d -3% to -8% · Tension 5d < -8%
SVRN — GCC Sovereign Bond Proxy (EMB component)
GCC sovereign credit. Oil-dependent fiscal budgets mean sovereign risk rises sharply when oil drops.Calme 5d > -1% · Vigilance 5d -1% to -3% · Tension 5d < -3%
OIL — Crude Oil (WTI/Brent)
Oil is the lifeblood of GCC economies. A crash directly impacts fiscal budgets, sovereign wealth, and currency pegs.Calme 5d > -3% · Vigilance 5d -3% to -12% · Tension 5d < -12%
FX — GCC Currency Peg Proxy
GCC currencies are pegged to USD. Any stress here signals extreme fiscal pressure and potential devaluation risk.Calme Peg stable · Vigilance Forward rates widening · Tension Peg under pressure
Système de Surveillance de Crise — GCC / Middle East Détail
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