Emerging Markets

Signaux

EM Banks Drawdown+3 pts

EM financials (EMFN) -8% in 5 days — broad EM banking stressPourquoi c'est important : EM bank drawdowns signal broad financial system stress across developing economies

EM Credit Stress+2 pts

EM sovereign bonds (EMB) underperforming — broad EM credit deteriorationPourquoi c'est important : EM credit stress signals rising default risk and capital flight from developing markets

EM Credit Drawdown+2 pts

EM credit proxy -5% in 5 days — broad credit deteriorationPourquoi c'est important : Sustained EM credit drawdown indicates deepening financial stress across emerging markets

EM Market Drawdown+2 pts

EM ETF (EEM) -5% in 5 days — broad emerging market equity weaknessPourquoi c'est important : Broad EM equity weakness confirms stress is systemic across emerging markets

EM FX Stress+2 pts

USD strength (UUP) >3% in 3 days — broad EM currency pressurePourquoi c'est important : Dollar strength creates EM FX stress, increasing USD-denominated debt burden

EM Volatility Elevated+1 pts

Emerging market volatility above 35 — elevated uncertaintyPourquoi c'est important : Elevated EM volatility indicates broad uncertainty and potential for capital flight

EM Market Stable+0 pts

EM ETF (EEM) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-offPourquoi c'est important : Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to specific countries

EM Real Estate Drawdown+2 pts

EM real estate proxy -10% in 5 days — broad EM property stressPourquoi c'est important : EM real estate stress signals broad financial tightening across developing markets

EM Market Stable+0 pts

EM ETF (EEM) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-offPourquoi c'est important : Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to specific countries

Instruments suivis

MKT — iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM)

Broadest EM equity benchmark. Drawdowns here confirm stress is systemic across developing economies, not country-specific.Calme 5d > -1% · Vigilance 5d -1% to -3% · Tension 5d < -8%

BANK — EM Financials (EMFN proxy)

EM bank drawdowns signal broad financial system stress across developing economies. Often precedes sovereign issues.Calme 5d > -3% · Vigilance 5d -3% to -8% · Tension 5d < -8%

CRD — iShares JP Morgan EM Bond ETF (EMB)

EM sovereign bonds. The key indicator for EM credit risk. Weakness signals rising default risk and capital flight from developing markets.Calme 5d > -1% · Vigilance 5d -1% to -3% · Tension 5d < -3%

FX — Invesco DB US Dollar Index (UUP) — inverse EM FX

Dollar strength is the single biggest risk factor for EM. Rising USD increases debt burden, triggers capital outflows, and pressures EM central banks.Calme 3d < +0.5% · Vigilance 3d +0.5% to +2% · Tension 3d > +2% USD strength

SVRN — EM Sovereign Bond Proxy

EM sovereign credit. Weakness signals rising default risk across developing economies.Calme 5d > -1% · Vigilance 5d -1% to -3% · Tension 5d < -3%

Crises passées ayant touché cette région

• COVID-19 CrashFeb 2020 – Mar 2020

  Fastest bear market in history. Global lockdowns caused simultaneous supply and demand shocks across all asset classes.

  VIX maximal 82.69 · Baisse du S&P 500 -33.9%

• China Devaluation / EM CrisisAug 2015 – Feb 2016

  PBoC surprised markets with CNY devaluation, triggering global EM selloff and commodity crash. Oil fell below $30.

  VIX maximal 40.74 · Baisse du S&P 500 -14.2%

• Taper TantrumMay 2013 – Sep 2013

  Fed signaled tapering QE. EM currencies and bonds sold off sharply as dollar strengthened.

  VIX maximal 21.91 · Baisse du S&P 500 -5.8%