Brazil

Signaux

Brazil Banks Drawdown+3 pts

Brazilian banks (ITUB, BBD) -8% in 5 days — banking sector stressPourquoi c'est important : Brazilian banks are exposed to sovereign and FX risk; drawdowns signal systemic concerns

Brazil Credit Stress+2 pts

EM bond proxy (EMB) underperforming — Brazilian credit deteriorationPourquoi c'est important : Credit stress in Brazil often precedes broader EM contagion

Brazil Credit Drawdown+2 pts

Brazil credit proxy -5% in 5 days — broad credit deteriorationPourquoi c'est important : Sustained credit drawdown indicates deepening financial stress in Brazil

Brazil Market Drawdown+2 pts

Brazil ETF (EWZ) -5% in 5 days — broad Brazilian equity weaknessPourquoi c'est important : Broad equity weakness confirms stress is affecting the wider Brazilian market

Real FX Stress+2 pts

BRL/USD move >3% in 3 days — real depreciation pressurePourquoi c'est important : Rapid real weakening signals capital flight and potential central bank intervention

Brazil Volatility Elevated+1 pts

Brazil market volatility above 35 — elevated uncertaintyPourquoi c'est important : Elevated volatility indicates market uncertainty and potential for sharp moves

Brazil Market Stable+0 pts

Brazil ETF (EWZ) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-offPourquoi c'est important : Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to specific sectors

Brazil Real Estate Drawdown+2 pts

Brazil REITs -10% in 5 days — property sector stressPourquoi c'est important : Brazilian real estate stress often accompanies rate hikes and credit tightening

Brazil Market Stable+0 pts

Brazil ETF (EWZ) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-offPourquoi c'est important : Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to specific sectors

Instruments suivis

MKT — iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ)

Broadest Brazil equity proxy. Heavily weighted to commodities and financials. Sensitive to BRL moves.Calme 5d > -1% · Vigilance 5d -1% to -5% · Tension 5d < -5%

BANK — Brazilian Banks (Itaú, Bradesco)

Brazilian banks are exposed to sovereign risk, FX volatility, and consumer credit. Key systemic risk indicator.Calme 5d > -3% · Vigilance 5d -3% to -10% · Tension 5d < -10%

CRD — Brazil Credit / Sovereign Bond Proxy

Brazilian credit conditions. Weakness signals rising sovereign risk and potential EM contagion.Calme 5d > -1% · Vigilance 5d -1% to -3% · Tension 5d < -3%

RE — Brazil Real Estate Proxy

Brazilian property sector. Sensitive to interest rates (Selic) and domestic economic conditions.Calme 5d > -3% · Vigilance 5d -3% to -8% · Tension 5d < -8%

FX — Brazilian Real (BRL/USD)

Real depreciation increases USD-denominated debt burden and signals capital flight from Brazil.Calme 3d < +1% · Vigilance 3d +1% to +3% · Tension 3d > +3% depreciation

Crises passées ayant touché cette région

• COVID-19 CrashFeb 2020 – Mar 2020

  Fastest bear market in history. Global lockdowns caused simultaneous supply and demand shocks across all asset classes.

  VIX maximal 82.69 · Baisse du S&P 500 -33.9%

• China Devaluation / EM CrisisAug 2015 – Feb 2016

  PBoC surprised markets with CNY devaluation, triggering global EM selloff and commodity crash. Oil fell below $30.

  VIX maximal 40.74 · Baisse du S&P 500 -14.2%

• Taper TantrumMay 2013 – Sep 2013

  Fed signaled tapering QE. EM currencies and bonds sold off sharply as dollar strengthened.

  VIX maximal 21.91 · Baisse du S&P 500 -5.8%