Australia

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MONITOR

Score de Crise5.0/15.0

ASX Vol

17.2

Signaux

3/7

Sécurité

Invalidateurs

0/0

Actions

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Early stress indicators are firing. Historically, about 40% of MONITOR episodes escalate to PHASE 1, while the rest resolve within days.

Risk Assets

▼Slightly weaker

Early stress signals can resolve without escalation, but warrant closer monitoring of position sizing.

Defensives

▲Bid firming

Utilities, staples, and quality factors tend to outperform when stress signals first appear.

Historical Context

Past MONITOR episodes: ~60% resolved without escalation. The ones that escalated typically showed credit and banking stress simultaneously.

Typical Duration

2-7 days

What's Happening

2 signalsfiring · 5.0/15.0 pts

2 points away from escalating to PHASE 1. Key driver: AU_intel_crisis_themes in Other.

Other5pts

AU_intel_crisis_themes3.00

AU_intel_civil_unrest2.00

Symboles

Australia ETF→

EWA

$28.27

-0.9%

+1.0%

-2.8%

0.0%

RVol

0.7

CBA Bank↓↓

CBA.AX

$149.69

-0.5%

-1.2%

-2.9%

0.0%

RVol

0.2

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Signals

Score: 5.0/15.0|Monitor: 5Trigger: 7Escalate: 9

Triggered (2)

AU_intel_crisis_themes

11 crisis themes detected: WAR, ATTACK, PROTEST3.0+3

AU_intel_civil_unrest

High protest activity: 30 events2.0+2

Checks Passing (1)

pct_change(market,5) >= -31.0OK

Inactive (4)

pct_change(banks,1) <= -3 OR pct_change(banks,5) <= -5-1.2+0

pct_change(real_estate,5) <= -5 (moderate) OR <= -10 (severe)3.0+0

pct_change(market,5) <= -5 (moderate) OR <= -8 (severe)1.0+0

volatility > 2517.2+0

Signal Contribution

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News Feed

Sentiment des Actualités

Comment le score de cette région est calculé

Chaque signal ci-dessous ajoute des points au score de crise de cette région tant que sa condition est remplie. Le total correspond à un état de crise selon les seuils indiqués plus haut. Le règlement complet se trouve sur la page de méthodologie.

Les définitions des signaux et des instruments sont affichées en anglais, telles qu'elles figurent dans les fichiers de règles.

Signaux

Australia Banks Drawdown+3 pts: Australian banks (CBA) -8% in 5 days — banking sector stressPourquoi c'est important : Australian banks are heavily exposed to property market; drawdowns signal housing/credit risk
Australia Property Drawdown+2 pts: Australian Property ETF (VAP.AX) -5% in 5 days — property sector stressPourquoi c'est important : Australian property is a key systemic risk given high household debt levels
Australia Credit Stress+2 pts: Australian bonds (IAF) underperforming — credit deteriorationPourquoi c'est important : Credit stress in Australia signals tightening conditions and potential mortgage stress
Australia Credit Drawdown+2 pts: Australia credit proxy -5% in 5 days — broad credit deteriorationPourquoi c'est important : Sustained credit drawdown indicates deepening financial stress in Australia
ASX 200 Drawdown+2 pts: ASX 200 -5% in 5 days — broad Australian equity weaknessPourquoi c'est important : Broad equity weakness confirms stress is affecting the wider Australian market
AUD FX Stress+2 pts: AUD/USD move >3% in 3 days — Aussie dollar depreciation pressurePourquoi c'est important : Rapid AUD weakening signals commodity downturn and potential capital outflows
Australia Volatility Elevated+1 pts: Australian market volatility above 25 — elevated uncertaintyPourquoi c'est important : Elevated volatility indicates market uncertainty and potential for sharp moves
Australia Market Stable+0 pts: ASX 200 holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-offPourquoi c'est important : Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to specific sectors
Australia Market Stable+0 pts: ASX 200 holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-offPourquoi c'est important : Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to specific sectors

Instruments suivis

MKT — iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA) / ASX 200: Broadest Australian equity proxy. Heavily weighted to banks and mining. Sensitive to China demand.Calme 5d > -1% · Vigilance 5d -1% to -3% · Tension 5d < -5%
BANK — Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA.AX): Australia's big-4 banks are massively exposed to the property market. Drawdowns signal housing/mortgage stress.Calme 5d > -3% · Vigilance 5d -3% to -8% · Tension 5d < -8%
CRD — iShares Composite Bond ETF (IAF.AX): Australian bond market proxy. Weakness signals tightening conditions and potential mortgage stress.Calme 5d > -0.5% · Vigilance 5d -0.5% to -2% · Tension 5d < -2%
RE — Vanguard Australian Property Securities ETF (VAP.AX): Australian property is a key systemic risk given extremely high household debt levels and property valuations.Calme 5d > -3% · Vigilance 5d -3% to -10% · Tension 5d < -10%
FX — Australian Dollar (AUD/USD): AUD is a commodity currency. Weakness signals China slowdown, commodity downturn, or risk-off sentiment globally.Calme 3d < +1% · Vigilance 3d +1% to +3% · Tension 3d > +3% depreciation

Australia

So What?

What's Happening

Symboles

Signals

Sentiment des Actualités

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Comment le score de cette région est calculé

Signaux

Instruments suivis