GCC / Middle East

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NORMAL

Puntuación de Crisis2.0/15.0

KSA Vol

12.1

Señales

2/7

Seguridad

Invalidadores

0/0

Acciones

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What's Happening

1 signalfiring · 2.0/15.0 pts

3 points away from escalating to MONITOR. Key driver: GCC_intel_civil_unrest in Other.

Other2pts

GCC_intel_civil_unrest2.00

Símbolos

Saudi ETF↓

KSA

$36.09

-2.2%

-0.0%

-5.6%

0.0%

RVol

2.0

Saudi Banks↓

1120.SR

$62.30

+0.2%

-0.2%

-5.2%

0.0%

RVol

0.6

Oil↑

USO

$147.65

+1.9%

-1.6%

-6.8%

0.0%

RVol

0.8

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Signals

Score: 2.0/15.0|Monitor: 5Trigger: 7Escalate: 9

Triggered (1)

GCC_intel_civil_unrest

High protest activity: 30 events2.0+2

Checks Passing (1)

pct_change(market,5) >= -3-0.0OK

Inactive (5)

pct_change(banks,1) <= -3 OR pct_change(banks,5) <= -5-0.2+0

GCC_oil_shock

|pct_change(oil,1)| >= 3 OR |pct_change(oil,5)| >= 5-1.6+0

GCC_sovereign_stress

pct_change(sovereign,5) <= -40.8+0

pct_change(market,5) <= -5 (moderate) OR <= -8 (severe)-0.0+0

volatility > 3512.1+0

Signal Contribution

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News Feed

Sentimiento de Noticias

Cómo se calcula la puntuación de esta región

Cada señal de abajo suma puntos a la puntuación de crisis de esta región mientras se cumple su condición. El total se traduce en un estado de crisis según los umbrales indicados arriba. El reglamento completo está en la página de metodología.

Las definiciones de señales e instrumentos se muestran en inglés, tal como figuran en los archivos de reglas.

Señales

GCC Banks Drawdown+3 pts: Saudi Arabia ETF (KSA) banks component -8% in 5 days — GCC banking stressPor qué importa: GCC banks are heavily exposed to oil revenue and sovereign wealth; drawdowns signal fiscal stress
GCC Credit Stress+2 pts: EM bond proxy (EMB) underperforming — GCC credit deteriorationPor qué importa: Credit stress in GCC signals oil-related fiscal concerns and sovereign risk
GCC Credit Drawdown+2 pts: GCC credit proxy -5% in 5 days — broad credit deteriorationPor qué importa: Sustained credit drawdown indicates deepening financial stress in GCC
GCC Market Drawdown+2 pts: Saudi Arabia ETF (KSA) -5% in 5 days — broad GCC equity weaknessPor qué importa: Broad GCC equity weakness confirms stress is affecting the wider regional market
GCC FX Stress+2 pts: USD peg pressure detected — potential devaluation riskPor qué importa: GCC currencies are pegged to USD; stress here signals extreme fiscal pressure
GCC Volatility Elevated+1 pts: GCC market volatility above 35 — elevated uncertaintyPor qué importa: Elevated volatility indicates market uncertainty, often oil-driven
GCC Market Stable+0 pts: Saudi Arabia ETF (KSA) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-offPor qué importa: Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to oil sector
GCC Real Estate Drawdown+2 pts: Gulf real estate -10% in 5 days — property sector stressPor qué importa: GCC real estate is heavily tied to oil revenue and sovereign spending
GCC Market Stable+0 pts: Saudi Arabia ETF (KSA) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-offPor qué importa: Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to oil sector

Instrumentos monitoreados

MKT — iShares MSCI Saudi Arabia ETF (KSA): Saudi Arabia is the GCC's largest economy. Equity performance is tightly correlated with oil prices and Vision 2030 progress.Calma 5d > -1% · Vigilancia 5d -1% to -5% · Estrés 5d < -8%
BANK — Al Rajhi Bank (1120.SR): GCC banks are heavily exposed to oil revenue and sovereign wealth. Drawdowns signal fiscal stress and potential peg pressure.Calma 5d > -3% · Vigilancia 5d -3% to -8% · Estrés 5d < -8%
SVRN — GCC Sovereign Bond Proxy (EMB component): GCC sovereign credit. Oil-dependent fiscal budgets mean sovereign risk rises sharply when oil drops.Calma 5d > -1% · Vigilancia 5d -1% to -3% · Estrés 5d < -3%
OIL — Crude Oil (WTI/Brent): Oil is the lifeblood of GCC economies. A crash directly impacts fiscal budgets, sovereign wealth, and currency pegs.Calma 5d > -3% · Vigilancia 5d -3% to -12% · Estrés 5d < -12%
FX — GCC Currency Peg Proxy: GCC currencies are pegged to USD. Any stress here signals extreme fiscal pressure and potential devaluation risk.Calma Peg stable · Vigilancia Forward rates widening · Estrés Peg under pressure

GCC / Middle East

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Cómo se calcula la puntuación de esta región

Señales

Instrumentos monitoreados