Cómo CrisisBoard convierte datos crudos de mercado, macro y noticias en una puntuación de crisis por región y un nivel global de riesgo. Esta página es el libro de reglas completo y auditable.
Última actualización: 2026-04-20 · 259 señales definidas
Casi todos los paneles comerciales de crisis son una caja negra: un modelo arroja una puntuación y el proveedor protege ese modelo como información propietaria. Eso funciona cuando el modelo acierta y no sirve de nada cuando se equivoca: no se puede discutir un número cuyo interior no se puede ver.
CrisisBoard adopta el enfoque opuesto. Cada señal que contribuye a la puntuación de una región es una regla con nombre propio y publicada, con un umbral fijo, una fuente de datos conocida y un valor en puntos fijo. La lógica de puntuación es determinista: las mismas entradas en el mismo día producen siempre la misma puntuación. No hay aprendizaje, ni ajuste de parámetros, ni ponderaciones que cambien de una versión a otra.
Esto tiene dos consecuencias. Primero, el panel es falsable: usted puede discrepar de un umbral concreto y rebatirlo con argumentos, porque el umbral está a la vista. Segundo, obliga a ser honestos sobre lo que no sabemos: si ninguna señal definida capta algo, la puntuación no puede verlo. Eso es una característica, no un error. Un 3/20 en una región que acaba de sufrir un golpe de Estado y para la que no tenemos ninguna señal de riesgo político no es una predicción de que el golpe no importe: es un recordatorio de que nuestro conjunto de señales está incompleto.
El machine learning tiene su lugar, y lo usamos en tareas ajenas a la puntuación (por ejemplo, redactar informes en lenguaje natural o agrupar anomalías). Pero el número que aparece en la parte superior de cada tarjeta de región es siempre la suma de reglas visibles.
Cada región se clasifica en uno de cinco estados según su puntuación total. Los rangos dependen de la región: una región de mercado desarrollado como EE. UU. usa umbrales distintos de los de un mercado emergente como Argentina, porque su volatilidad de base es diferente. Los rangos de puntos que se muestran abajo corresponden a los umbrales de referencia de EE. UU. (vigilar 8, gatillo 10, escalar 12); las demás regiones los desplazan hacia arriba o hacia abajo, y los cortes exactos de cada región están en el archivo region-config.
No se detecta estrés significativo. Ruido habitual de la actividad del mercado y movimientos aislados de activos individuales. Nada que requiera actuar.
Los indicadores de alerta temprana empiezan a alinearse. Un puñado de señales débiles pero reales se activan a la vez: bancos debilitándose, diferenciales de crédito ampliándose, volatilidad en aumento. Merece seguimiento, pero todavía no exige actuar.
Estrés confirmado. Varias categorías de señales se activan simultáneamente. Históricamente, las regiones en FASE 1 tienen una probabilidad notablemente mayor de seguir escalando en cuestión de días o semanas.
Estrés de FASE 1 confirmado por un repunte de la volatilidad. Se activa cuando la puntuación ya está en la banda de activación Y el indicador de volatilidad de la región (el VIX en el caso de EE. UU.) supera 28: el mercado no solo está tensionado, sino que se mueve con violencia. Históricamente, es la vía rápida hacia la FASE 2.
Dislocación sistémica. Múltiples señales de ruptura confirmadas: estrés de liquidez, dislocación cambiaria, ruptura del crédito. Es el estado de “esto está pasando de verdad”.
Las transiciones de estado incluyen histéresis: una región que alcanza la FASE 1 no vuelve a NORMAL por un solo día en verde. Esto evita oscilaciones por ruido y refleja cómo se desarrollan realmente las crisis: el estrés se acumula y luego se libera.
Cada señal ocupa una fila. Lea el orden de las columnas así: nombre / instrumento / umbral / puntos / por qué importa. Los puntos se suman a la puntuación total de la región. Un valor en puntos más alto significa que la señal ha sido históricamente más predictiva de crisis reales, no que la consideremos más importante desde el punto de vista político.
La lista siguiente se genera directamente a partir del archivo del glosario de señales del proyecto: si una señal aparece aquí, está activa en el motor; si no aparece, no se utiliza.
Las definiciones de señales que siguen se muestran en inglés, tal como figuran en los archivos de reglas.
Argentine bank ADRs (GGAL, BMA, SUPV) -12% in 5 days — banking sector stress
Local banks (ADRs) show stress from FX and sovereign issues. These are the most liquid proxies for Argentine financial system health.
China Large-Cap (FXI) banks component -8% in 5 days — Chinese banking stress
Chinese bank stocks are first to show stress from property/credit issues in China's financial system
UK banks (BARC, LLOY) -8% in 5 days — UK banking sector stress
UK banks are highly leveraged to property and credit markets; drawdowns signal systemic risk
Brazilian banks (ITUB, BBD) -8% in 5 days — banking sector stress
Brazilian banks are exposed to sovereign and FX risk; drawdowns signal systemic concerns
Indian banks (IBN, HDB) -8% in 5 days — banking sector stress
Indian banks are key indicators of domestic financial health and NPA risk
Saudi Arabia ETF (KSA) banks component -8% in 5 days — GCC banking stress
GCC banks are heavily exposed to oil revenue and sovereign wealth; drawdowns signal fiscal stress
Australian banks (CBA) -8% in 5 days — banking sector stress
Australian banks are heavily exposed to property market; drawdowns signal housing/credit risk
Turkish banks proxy -8% in 5 days — banking sector stress
Turkish banks are exposed to lira depreciation and high inflation; drawdowns signal systemic risk
Korean banks (KB, SHG) -8% in 5 days — banking sector stress
Korean banks are exposed to household debt and chaebol risk; drawdowns signal systemic concerns
US Regional Banks (KRE) -8% in 5 days — banking sector stress
Regional banks are first to show stress in financial system issues
Euro Banks Index (SX7E) -8% in 5 days — EU banking stress
European banks are first to show stress in EU financial system
Asia Financials -8% in 5 days — Asian banking stress
Asian financials are first to show stress in regional financial system
Argentine bank ADRs (GGAL, BMA, SUPV) -8% in 5 days — banking stress
Local banks (ADRs) show stress from FX and sovereign issues
Coinbase (COIN) -15% in 5 days — exchange distress
Exchange stress precedes broader crypto crisis and liquidity issues
Japanese banks (MUFG, SMFG) -8% in 5 days — banking stress
Japanese bank stress signals JGB or property market concerns
Mexican banks (BSMX) -8% in 5 days — banking stress
Mexican bank stress signals sovereign or FX concerns
Taiwan banks (Cathay, Fubon) -8% in 5 days — banking stress
Taiwan bank stress signals property or geopolitical concerns
European High Yield (EHYG) underperforms Investment Grade (EIGB) — credit stress
HY underperforming IG indicates EU credit market stress and risk aversion
China Bond ETF (CBON) -3% in 3 days — credit market deterioration
Chinese credit stress often precedes broader EM contagion and signals tightening financial conditions
China credit proxy -5% in 5 days — broad credit deterioration
Sustained credit drawdown indicates deepening financial stress in China
UK gilts (IGLT) underperforming — credit market deterioration
Gilt stress (as seen in 2022 LDI crisis) can cascade through pension funds and banks
UK credit proxy -5% in 5 days — broad credit deterioration
Sustained credit drawdown indicates deepening financial stress in the UK
EM bond proxy (EMB) underperforming — Brazilian credit deterioration
Credit stress in Brazil often precedes broader EM contagion
Brazil credit proxy -5% in 5 days — broad credit deterioration
Sustained credit drawdown indicates deepening financial stress in Brazil
India bond proxy (IGIB) underperforming — credit deterioration
Credit stress in India signals tightening financial conditions and potential NPA issues
India credit proxy -5% in 5 days — broad credit deterioration
Sustained credit drawdown indicates deepening financial stress in India
EM bond proxy (EMB) underperforming — GCC credit deterioration
Credit stress in GCC signals oil-related fiscal concerns and sovereign risk
GCC credit proxy -5% in 5 days — broad credit deterioration
Sustained credit drawdown indicates deepening financial stress in GCC
Australian bonds (IAF) underperforming — credit deterioration
Credit stress in Australia signals tightening conditions and potential mortgage stress
Australia credit proxy -5% in 5 days — broad credit deterioration
Sustained credit drawdown indicates deepening financial stress in Australia
EM bond proxy (EMB) underperforming — Turkish credit deterioration
Credit stress in Turkey signals sovereign risk and potential lira crisis
Turkey credit proxy -5% in 5 days — broad credit deterioration
Sustained credit drawdown indicates deepening financial stress in Turkey
South Korea ETF (EWY) credit component underperforming — credit deterioration
Credit stress in Korea signals tightening conditions and potential tech sector contagion
South Korea credit proxy -5% in 5 days — broad credit deterioration
Sustained credit drawdown indicates deepening financial stress in Korea
EM sovereign bonds (EMB) underperforming — broad EM credit deterioration
EM credit stress signals rising default risk and capital flight from developing markets
EM credit proxy -5% in 5 days — broad credit deterioration
Sustained EM credit drawdown indicates deepening financial stress across emerging markets
Senior Loans (SRLN) underperform High Yield (HYG) — credit quality deterioration
Senior loans should be safer than HY bonds. Underperformance signals credit stress
US credit proxy -5% in 5 days — broad credit deterioration
Sustained credit drawdown indicates deepening financial stress in the US
EU credit proxy -5% in 5 days — broad credit deterioration
Sustained credit drawdown indicates deepening financial stress in Europe
Asia High Yield underperforms Investment Grade — credit deterioration
HY underperforming IG indicates Asian credit market stress and risk aversion
Asia credit proxy -5% in 5 days — broad credit deterioration
Sustained credit drawdown indicates deepening financial stress in Asia
Argentine sovereign bonds underperform — credit deterioration
Argentine credit stress signals rising default or restructuring risk
Argentine credit proxy -5% in 5 days — broad credit deterioration
Sustained credit drawdown indicates deepening financial stress in Argentina
China Large-Cap (FXI) -5% in 5 days — broad Chinese equity weakness
Broad equity weakness confirms stress is affecting the wider Chinese market
China market volatility above 35 — elevated uncertainty
Elevated volatility indicates market uncertainty and potential for sharp moves
China Large-Cap (FXI) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to specific sectors
FTSE 100 -5% in 5 days — broad UK equity weakness
Broad UK equity weakness confirms stress is affecting the wider market
UK market volatility above 25 — elevated uncertainty
Elevated volatility indicates market uncertainty and potential for sharp moves
FTSE 100 holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to specific sectors
Brazil ETF (EWZ) -5% in 5 days — broad Brazilian equity weakness
Broad equity weakness confirms stress is affecting the wider Brazilian market
Brazil market volatility above 35 — elevated uncertainty
Elevated volatility indicates market uncertainty and potential for sharp moves
Brazil ETF (EWZ) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to specific sectors
India ETF (INDA) -5% in 5 days — broad Indian equity weakness
Broad equity weakness confirms stress is affecting the wider Indian market
India market volatility above 35 — elevated uncertainty
Elevated volatility indicates market uncertainty and potential for sharp moves
India ETF (INDA) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to specific sectors
Saudi Arabia ETF (KSA) -5% in 5 days — broad GCC equity weakness
Broad GCC equity weakness confirms stress is affecting the wider regional market
GCC market volatility above 35 — elevated uncertainty
Elevated volatility indicates market uncertainty, often oil-driven
Saudi Arabia ETF (KSA) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to oil sector
ASX 200 -5% in 5 days — broad Australian equity weakness
Broad equity weakness confirms stress is affecting the wider Australian market
Australian market volatility above 25 — elevated uncertainty
Elevated volatility indicates market uncertainty and potential for sharp moves
ASX 200 holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to specific sectors
Turkey ETF (TUR) -5% in 5 days — broad Turkish equity weakness
Broad equity weakness confirms stress is affecting the wider Turkish market
Turkish market volatility above 35 — elevated uncertainty
Elevated volatility indicates market uncertainty, often FX-driven in Turkey
Turkey ETF (TUR) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to FX/rates
South Korea ETF (EWY) -5% in 5 days — broad Korean equity weakness
Broad equity weakness confirms stress is affecting the wider Korean market
Korean market volatility above 35 — elevated uncertainty
Elevated volatility indicates market uncertainty, often tech/semiconductor driven
South Korea ETF (EWY) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to specific sectors
EM ETF (EEM) -5% in 5 days — broad emerging market equity weakness
Broad EM equity weakness confirms stress is systemic across emerging markets
Emerging market volatility above 35 — elevated uncertainty
Elevated EM volatility indicates broad uncertainty and potential for capital flight
EM ETF (EEM) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to specific countries
S&P 500 (SPY) -5% in 5 days — broad market weakness
Equity weakness confirms stress is affecting broader market
VIX above 25 — elevated market fear
Elevated VIX indicates market uncertainty and potential for sharp moves
S&P 500 (SPY) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to specific sectors
Euro Stoxx 50 (STOXX50E) -5% in 5 days — broad EU equity weakness
EU equity weakness confirms stress is affecting broader European market
STOXX50E Realized Vol above 25 — elevated EU market fear
Elevated STOXX50E Realized Vol indicates EU market uncertainty and potential for sharp moves
Euro Stoxx 50 holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to specific sectors
MSCI Asia-Pacific -5% in 5 days — broad Asian equity weakness
Regional equity weakness confirms stress is affecting broader Asian market
Hang Seng vol above 25 — elevated Asian market fear
Elevated regional volatility indicates market uncertainty and potential for sharp moves
MSCI Asia-Pacific holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to specific countries
MSCI Argentina ETF (ARGT) -5% in 5 days — broad Argentine equity weakness
Broad equity weakness confirms stress is affecting the wider Argentine market
Argentina market volatility above 35 — elevated uncertainty
Elevated volatility indicates market uncertainty, often FX-driven in Argentina
MSCI Argentina ETF (ARGT) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to FX/sovereign
China Large-Cap (FXI) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to specific sectors
FTSE 100 holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to specific sectors
Brazil ETF (EWZ) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to specific sectors
India ETF (INDA) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to specific sectors
Saudi Arabia ETF (KSA) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to oil sector
ASX 200 holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to specific sectors
Turkey ETF (TUR) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to FX/rates
South Korea ETF (EWY) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to specific sectors
EM ETF (EEM) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to specific countries
Bitcoin (BTC-USD) -5% in 5 days — crypto market weakness
Bitcoin drawdowns often precede broader crypto market sell-offs
Ethereum (ETH-USD) -12% in 5 days — altcoin stress
ETH weakness signals altcoin market stress and potential DeFi contagion
Bitcoin volatility above 25 — elevated uncertainty
Elevated volatility indicates market uncertainty and potential for sharp moves
Bitcoin (BTC-USD) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to specific tokens
DXY volatility above 25 — elevated FX uncertainty
Elevated FX volatility indicates currency market uncertainty
Japan ETF (EWJ) -5% in 5 days — broad Japanese equity weakness
Broad equity weakness confirms stress affecting wider Japanese market
Japanese market volatility above 25 — elevated uncertainty
Elevated volatility indicates Japanese market uncertainty
Japan ETF (EWJ) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — stress may be contained to specific sectors
Mexico ETF (EWW) -5% in 5 days — broad Mexican equity weakness
Broad equity weakness confirms stress affecting wider Mexican market
Mexican market volatility above 35 — elevated uncertainty
Elevated volatility indicates Mexican market uncertainty
Mexico ETF (EWW) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — stress may be contained to specific sectors
TSMC (TSM) -12% in 5 days — semiconductor supply chain risk
TSMC weakness signals semiconductor supply chain stress
Taiwan ETF (EWT) -5% in 5 days — broad Taiwanese equity weakness
Broad equity weakness confirms stress affecting wider Taiwan market
Taiwan market volatility above 35 — elevated uncertainty
Elevated volatility indicates Taiwan market uncertainty, often geopolitical
Taiwan ETF (EWT) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-off
Market stability indicator — stress may be contained to specific sectors
Contado con Liquidación (CCL) +6% in 3 days — primary FX stress indicator
CCL (contado con liquidación) is the main FX stress indicator for Argentina. A sharp rise means the peso is weakening rapidly against the dollar in the parallel market.
Argentine sovereign bonds (GD30) underperform US IG — sovereign risk rising
Argentine sovereign bonds underperforming US IG indicates the market is pricing in higher default or restructuring risk for Argentina.
CNY/USD move >3% in 3 days — yuan depreciation pressure
Rapid yuan weakening signals capital flight and potential PBOC intervention risk
GBP/USD move >3% in 3 days — sterling depreciation pressure
Rapid sterling weakening signals loss of confidence in UK economy/fiscal policy
BRL/USD move >3% in 3 days — real depreciation pressure
Rapid real weakening signals capital flight and potential central bank intervention
INR/USD move >3% in 3 days — rupee depreciation pressure
Rapid rupee weakening signals capital outflows and potential RBI intervention
USD peg pressure detected — potential devaluation risk
GCC currencies are pegged to USD; stress here signals extreme fiscal pressure
AUD/USD move >3% in 3 days — Aussie dollar depreciation pressure
Rapid AUD weakening signals commodity downturn and potential capital outflows
TRY/USD move >3% in 3 days — lira depreciation pressure
Rapid lira weakening signals loss of confidence and potential central bank policy failure
KRW/USD move >3% in 3 days — won depreciation pressure
Rapid won weakening signals capital outflows and potential BoK intervention
USD strength (UUP) >3% in 3 days — broad EM currency pressure
Dollar strength creates EM FX stress, increasing USD-denominated debt burden
USD index move >3% in 3 days — dollar volatility
Rapid dollar moves signal global risk-off or flight to safety dynamics
EUR/USD move >3% in 3 days — euro volatility
Rapid euro moves signal ECB policy concerns or eurozone fragmentation risk
Asian currency basket move >3% in 3 days — regional FX pressure
Rapid Asian currency weakening signals capital flight from the region
FX proxy move >3% in 3 days — peso depreciation pressure
Rapid FX moves signal capital flight and parallel market stress
Dollar Index strength >3% — strong USD indicates global stress
Strong USD typically signals flight to safety and global risk aversion
Dollar Index strength >5% — extreme USD demand
Extreme dollar strength indicates severe global financial stress
Emerging market FX stress >4% — EM currency weakness
EM FX stress signals capital flight from developing markets
USD/JPY down >2% — yen strengthening (risk-off)
Yen strength indicates flight to safety and risk aversion
Cross-currency volatility >3% — FX market dislocation
High cross-currency volatility signals FX market stress
EUR/USD down >3% in 5 days — euro weakness
Euro weakness signals eurozone stress or dollar strength
GBP/USD down >3% in 5 days — pound weakness
Pound weakness signals UK economic concerns or dollar strength
USD/CNY up >2% — yuan depreciation pressure
Yuan weakness signals China FX pressure and potential PBOC intervention
USD/MXN up >4% — peso weakness (EM bellwether)
Peso is most liquid EM currency; weakness signals broader EM stress
2+ major pairs with >2% 5d moves — widespread FX stress
Multiple major pairs stressed indicates systemic FX market dislocation
MXN/USD move >3% in 3 days — peso depreciation pressure
Peso is most liquid EM currency; weakness signals EM stress
China Overseas Land (0688.HK) -5% in 5 days — property sector stress
China's property sector is a key systemic risk; drawdowns signal potential contagion to banks and broader economy
UK property (BLND) -10% in 5 days — commercial real estate stress
UK commercial property is a key stress indicator, especially post-Brexit and with rising rates
Australian Property ETF (VAP.AX) -5% in 5 days — property sector stress
Australian property is a key systemic risk given high household debt levels
Office REITs (VNO, SLG, BXP) -5% in 5 days — commercial real estate stress
Office REITs are canaries in coal mine for credit/liquidity issues
EU Real Estate (EQRE) -10% in 5 days — European property stress
European real estate stress can cascade through banks and pension funds
Wharf Real Estate (1997.HK) -5% in 5 days — Asian property stress
HK developers are canaries in coal mine for Asian property/credit issues
Argentine real estate (IRSA, CRESY) -10% in 5 days — property stress
Argentine real estate stress often accompanies FX and sovereign crises
China Overseas Land (0688.HK) -5% in 5 days — property sector stress
China's property sector is a key systemic risk; drawdowns signal potential contagion
UK property (BLND) -10% in 5 days — commercial real estate stress
UK commercial property is a key stress indicator, especially post-Brexit
Brazil REITs -10% in 5 days — property sector stress
Brazilian real estate stress often accompanies rate hikes and credit tightening
India REITs -10% in 5 days — property sector stress
Indian real estate stress signals potential NPA issues in banking sector
Gulf real estate -10% in 5 days — property sector stress
GCC real estate is heavily tied to oil revenue and sovereign spending
Turkish REITs -10% in 5 days — property sector stress
Turkish real estate stress often accompanies lira depreciation and rate hikes
South Korea REITs proxy -10% in 5 days — property sector stress
Korean real estate stress signals household debt concerns and potential banking contagion
EM real estate proxy -10% in 5 days — broad EM property stress
EM real estate stress signals broad financial tightening across developing markets
T-Bills (BIL) price up + volume ≥2× average — investors hiding in safety
Investors hiding in T-Bills = expecting market stress - core thesis pillar
EU Money Market (CSH2.PA) price up + volume ≥2× average — investors hiding in safety
Investors hiding in EU money markets = expecting European market stress - core thesis pillar
VIX rising faster than 2%/minute — panic acceleration
Rapid VIX acceleration indicates sudden fear spike even before absolute thresholds hit
Regional banks (KRE) dropping faster than 1.5%/minute — rapid banking stress
Sudden banking sector drops indicate liquidity or confidence crisis developing
High Yield (HYG) dropping faster than 0.8%/minute — credit spread widening acceleration
Rapid credit selloffs signal flight to quality before spreads hit critical levels
STOXX50E Realized Vol rising faster than 2%/minute — European panic acceleration
Rapid European volatility spikes indicate sudden stress in euro markets
European banks (SX7E) dropping faster than 1.5%/minute — rapid banking stress
Sudden EU banking drops indicate systemic euro-area financial stress
European High Yield (EHYG) dropping faster than 0.8%/minute — credit stress acceleration
Rapid euro credit selloffs precede broader European financial stress
ARS dropping faster than 1%/minute — currency crisis acceleration
Rapid peso drops indicate loss of confidence and capital flight
50%+ of regions rising simultaneously (5+ pts) — contagion risk
Synchronized rapid deterioration across regions signals systemic contagion
>20% of news contains crisis keywords — media panic
High panic keyword percentage indicates widespread crisis coverage
>40% of news is crisis-related — extreme media alarm
Majority crisis coverage signals major unfolding events
>60% of news has negative sentiment — pessimism surge
Widespread negative sentiment reflects deteriorating conditions
>80% of news negative — overwhelming pessimism
Extreme negativity indicates severe crisis or panic
5+ crisis articles in 30 minutes — breaking crisis
High-frequency crisis news indicates rapidly developing situation
Single region >30% of crisis articles — regional focus
Geographic concentration indicates specific regional crisis
Crisis keywords in 3+ regions simultaneously — contagion
Multi-region crises indicate contagion or coordinated events
>20% global keywords + >30% panic — systemic global event
Global crisis coverage indicates systemic worldwide emergency
<10 unique sources with >50 articles — low source diversity
Echo chambers suggest limited independent verification of news
Very recent crisis news (<30 min avg) with high panic — breaking event
Fresh panic news indicates new crisis developments
Crisis news >2hrs old but still high panic — ongoing crisis
Sustained coverage indicates crisis is not resolving quickly
Federal Funds Rate ≥4.5% — restrictive monetary policy territory
Elevated rates above 4.5% indicate restrictive policy that slows growth and increases recession risk
Federal Funds Rate ≥5.5% — crisis-risk zone
Rates above 5.5% historically precede recessions (2000 dot-com, 2007 pre-GFC)
US Treasury 3M/10Y spread inverted — recession warning
Inverted yield curve has preceded every US recession since 1950s. Bond market pricing recession risk
Deeply inverted 3M/10Y curve (>-50bp) — severe recession signal
Deep inversions indicate bond market pricing severe economic contraction
Fed Funds rate in restrictive territory (>5%) — tight monetary policy
High rates slow economy and increase financial stress on leveraged borrowers
Fed running quantitative tightening >$90B/month — major liquidity drain
Rapid balance sheet reduction drains liquidity from financial system
Fed hiking >25bp per meeting — aggressive tightening pace
Rapid rate increases risk breaking something in financial system
Fed making emergency rate cuts — crisis response
Emergency cuts only happen when Fed sees severe crisis requiring immediate action
Fed balance sheet shrinking >2% MoM — rapid liquidity withdrawal
Rapid balance sheet shrinkage can trigger liquidity crunch
Fed restarting quantitative easing — crisis liquidity injection
Fed only restarts QE in crisis to prevent financial system collapse
ECB deposit rate >4% — tight policy for European economy
High ECB rates stress European banks and sovereign debt markets
BOJ ending decades of ZIRP/NIRP — major regime change
BOJ policy shift ends yen carry trade and reverses global liquidity flows
BOJ maintaining yield curve control — JGB market distortion
YCC distorts bond market pricing and creates instability risk
BOJ in rate hiking cycle — global liquidity drain
BOJ hikes strengthen yen and reverse decades of yen carry trades
PBoC cutting rates aggressively — China stimulus mode
PBoC easing signals Chinese economy in distress requiring stimulus
Real interest rates negative (rates < inflation) — excessive ease
Negative real rates indicate central banks behind curve, risk of inflation or bubbles
Real rates >3% — very tight monetary conditions
Very high real rates slow economy and increase debt service stress
3+ major central banks cutting rates simultaneously — global crisis response
Coordinated easing only happens in severe global crises (2008, 2020)
3+ major central banks hiking simultaneously — global liquidity drain
Synchronized tightening drains global liquidity and increases crisis risk
Multiple major policy meetings imminent — policy uncertainty spike
Policy meetings create uncertainty and volatility around potential surprises
CPI ≥4.0% — above Fed target
Inflation above 4% forces Fed tightening and raises recession risk
CPI ≥6.0% — crisis-level inflation
Inflation at 6%+ indicates severe pricing instability requiring aggressive Fed action
Unemployment Rate ≥4.5% — labor market deterioration
Rising unemployment signals economic contraction and weakening demand
Unemployment Rate ≥6.0% — recession indicator
Unemployment at 6%+ is a strong recession signal and indicates broad economic distress
Real GDP growth <0% — recession
Negative GDP growth defines technical recession and indicates severe economic contraction
Real GDP growth <1.5% — pre-recession warning
GDP below 1.5% indicates weak growth and elevated recession risk
10Y Treasury Yield <2.5% — investors seeking safety
Very low yields indicate flight to safety as investors anticipate economic weakness
10Y Treasury Yield >5.0% — bond market stress
Very high yields indicate bond market selling pressure and fiscal/inflation concerns
High rates + High unemployment + Weak GDP — multiple recession indicators
When 2+ recession indicators trigger simultaneously, recession probability is very high
High inflation + Weak growth + High unemployment — stagflation scenario
Stagflation (1970s-style) is policy nightmare with high inflation during economic contraction
Commodity price volatility elevated — market instability
High volatility indicates uncertainty and potential supply disruptions
Supply chain metrics showing elevated volatility — instability
Volatility indicates disruptions and uncertainty in global logistics
Gold >$4500/oz — safe haven panic buying
Extreme gold prices indicate fear and flight to safety
Gold up >15% (3M) — crisis hedge demand
Rapid gold appreciation signals investors pricing crisis scenarios
WTI crude oil >$120/barrel — energy crisis
Oil above $120 severely impacts economy, increases inflation and recession risk
WTI crude oil >$100/barrel — inflationary pressure
Oil above $100 increases inflation and consumer cost pressures
Oil prices up >20% in 1 month — supply shock
Rapid oil price increases signal supply disruption or geopolitical crisis
Oil price volatility >40% — energy market instability
High volatility creates planning uncertainty for businesses and consumers
Natural gas up >30% (1M) — energy supply shock
Gas spikes impact heating costs and power generation
US Strategic Petroleum Reserve <50% of average — energy security risk
Depleted reserves reduce ability to respond to supply disruptions
US Strategic Petroleum Reserve <70% of average — reduced buffer
Lower reserves provide less cushion against supply shocks
Strategic reserves <20 days of supply — minimal buffer
Low days of supply means limited ability to weather disruptions
Energy security index <50/100 — severe energy shortage risk
Energy crises disrupt economy and can cause power outages
Energy security index <70/100 — elevated energy stress
Energy stress increases costs and vulnerability to disruptions
Wheat prices up >30% year-over-year — food security threat
Wheat is staple food - price spikes cause hunger and social instability
Corn prices up >30% year-over-year — food inflation
Corn feeds livestock and humans - price spikes ripple through food system
2+ major grains up >15% (3M) — food supply disruption
Multiple grain spikes indicate systemic food supply issues
Wheat reserves <85% of average — reduced buffer
Low reserves mean less ability to stabilize prices during shortages
Corn reserves <80 days of supply — tight supply
Low days of supply increases vulnerability to weather or crop failures
Food security index <50/100 — severe food shortage risk
Food crises cause humanitarian disasters and political instability
Food security index <70/100 — elevated food stress
Food stress increases prices and reduces access for vulnerable populations
Copper down >-20% YoY — recession signal
Copper is economic barometer - crashes precede recessions
Copper up >30% YoY — supply shortage or inflation
Copper spikes signal supply constraints or overheating economy
2+ critical materials at high supply risk — material shortages
Multiple critical material shortages cascade through supply chains
1 critical material at severe supply risk — material constraint
Single material shortage can bottleneck entire production chains
3+ materials at high supply risk — material stress
Multiple material risks increase vulnerability to supply shocks
Rare earth high supply risk + >20% price spike (3M)
Rare earths are critical for electronics, EVs, and defense - shortages are severe
Lithium stockpiles <30 days — EV battery constraint
Lithium shortages constrain EV production and battery supply
Cobalt high risk + <30 days stockpile — battery crisis
Cobalt is essential for batteries - shortages limit EV and electronics production
Critical-severity commodity supply disruptions active
Critical disruptions can cause shortages and price shocks
2+ high-severity commodity disruptions — supply chain stress
Multiple simultaneous disruptions compound supply problems
Commodity security index <60/100 — broad commodity stress
Broad commodity stress indicates systemic supply and price problems
Baltic Dry Index >250% of historical average — shipping crisis
Extreme freight costs indicate severe shipping capacity constraints
Baltic Dry Index >180% of average — high shipping costs
Elevated freight increases costs and reduces trade volumes
Shipping costs up >30% (1M) — rapid logistics deterioration
Rapid freight increases signal sudden capacity shortages
Shanghai Freight Index >200% of average — container shortage
Container shortages disrupt global trade and increase costs
Major ports at critical congestion levels — severe bottlenecks
Critical congestion creates massive delays and supply chain breakdowns
2+ major ports severely congested — widespread delays
Multiple congested ports indicate systemic port capacity issues
Average port congestion >60% — global port stress
High average congestion shows systemic problems across port network
LA/Long Beach ports >70% congestion — US import bottleneck
LA ports handle 40% of US container imports - congestion impacts economy
2+ ports with >48hr vessel wait times — severe congestion
Long wait times increase costs and reduce effective shipping capacity
Semiconductor lead times >26 weeks — severe chip shortage
Extreme lead times halt production of cars, electronics, appliances
Semiconductor lead times >20 weeks — chip supply stress
Long lead times constrain production and increase costs
Chip lead times increased +4 weeks (3M) — deteriorating supply
Worsening lead times signal supply not keeping up with demand
Semiconductor shortage index >70/100 — widespread shortages
High shortage index indicates broad unavailability across chip types
Semiconductor fab utilization >95% — no spare capacity
Maxed capacity means unable to respond to demand increases
Chip inventory <6 weeks — minimal buffer
Low inventory makes supply chain vulnerable to any disruption
Global supply chain health <40/100 — severe disruption
Supply chain breakdown causes shortages, inflation, and economic damage
Supply chain health <60/100 — elevated stress
Supply chain stress increases costs and delivery times
Shipping health index <50/100 — maritime crisis
Shipping breakdown disrupts global trade flows
Port health index <50/100 — port system failure
Port failures create massive bottlenecks in global trade
Manufacturing supply health <50/100 — production crisis
Manufacturing supply failures cause production shutdowns
Bitcoin -10% in 24h — significant crypto selloff
BTC drops >10% often precede equity market selloffs by hours or days
Bitcoin -15% in 24h — extreme crypto distress
BTC crashes >15% signal panic selling and potential contagion to traditional markets
Bitcoin -5% to -10% in 24h — early warning signal
Moderate BTC declines often serve as early warning before broader risk-off moves
Bitcoin +5% in 24h — risk-on indicator
Strong BTC gains suggest market confidence and risk appetite
Bitcoin absolute move >10% in 24h — high instability
Even upside volatility >10% signals market instability and potential reversal risk
Bitcoin absolute move <2% in 24h — low volatility, market calm
Low BTC volatility indicates stable market conditions without stress
BTC and ETH both -5% in 24h — broad crypto market stress
When both BTC and ETH decline together, indicates broad crypto sector weakness
MERVAL (USD) flat while FX moves — confirms stress is FX-driven, not equity-driven
If equities don't drop with FX stress, confirms crisis is FX/sovereign driven rather than a broad equity sell-off.
Bitcoin data unavailable — no signal evaluation possible
Informational signal indicating crypto data is not available for evaluation
Diecisiete regiones geográficas con cobertura de mercados líquidos + dieciséis países con cobertura solo de noticias + siete sectores sintéticos. Las regiones con datos de mercado se centran en economías que originaron la mayoría de las crisis financieras modernas o actuaron como canales de transmisión (Asia en 1997, la crisis financiera global de 2008, la eurozona en 2010–12, los emergentes en 2018, la COVID en 2020, los fondos LDI británicos en 2022, la banca regional en 2023, etc.).
Los países con cobertura solo de noticias (Bolivia, Perú, Chile, Venezuela, Colombia, Ecuador, Nigeria, Sudáfrica, Egipto, Indonesia, Vietnam, Tailandia, Filipinas, Rusia, Polonia, Ucrania) no tienen proxies de mercado líquidos que coticen en EE. UU.: su puntuación de crisis se calcula íntegramente con los feeds de Google News RSS de cada región (densidad de palabras clave de pánico + sentimiento + volumen de titulares). Su techo de puntuación es más bajo que el de las regiones de mercado, y el compuesto global los pondera a 0.3× para evitar que un solo titular local domine el indicador principal.
Origen de la mayoría de las crisis financieras modernas. Los bancos regionales (KRE), el crédito (HYG, SRLN, LQD), el VIX y los REIT de oficinas son las señales centrales.
Líneas de falla de la unión bancaria. Volatilidad del STOXX50E, bancos europeos (EUFN), diferenciales soberanos de la periferia.
Independiente de la UE tras el Brexit. Tensión en el mercado de gilts, libra esterlina (GBP), política del BoE, riesgo operativo de las estrategias LDI.
El carry trade del yen es un canal global de transmisión de liquidez. Volatilidad del Nikkei (VNKY), JGB, política del BoJ, USD/JPY.
Hong Kong y el resto de Asia sin Japón. ETF de Asia excl. Japón (AAXJ), HSBC HK (0005.HK), Hang Seng (HSI), sector inmobiliario de Hong Kong.
Termómetro de los semiconductores y las exportaciones. KOSPI (EWY), KB Financial, Samsung, won (KRW).
Dependiente del sector inmobiliario y de las decisiones de política. FXI, bancos chinos, promotoras inmobiliarias, fijación del yuan (CNY).
La mayor economía de mercado emergente. Nifty, bancos, rupia (INR), política del RBI.
Barómetro de materias primas de los emergentes. Bovespa, bancos brasileños, real (BRL), vínculo con el mineral de hierro.
Emergente ligado a EE. UU. Peso (MXN), IPC, bancos, sensibilidad al comercio transfronterizo.
Estrés cambiario y soberano crónico. Dólar contado con liquidación (CCL), Merval, probabilidad de default.
Caso de estudio de crisis cambiaria. Lira (TRY), BIST, bancos turcos, credibilidad del banco central.
Proxy de materias primas ligado a China. ASX, AUD, mineral de hierro, vivienda.
Estrés soberano dependiente del petróleo y presión sobre la paridad con el USD durante los shocks de materias primas.
Proxy de riesgo geopolítico: sanciones, interrupciones del suministro de petróleo, escalada regional.
Concentración en semiconductores y riesgo geopolítico en el estrecho. TSMC (TSM), TAIEX, TWD.
Cesta compuesta de emergentes. EEM, EMB, EMHY: capta la dinámica de fuga de capitales.
Los sectores sintéticos son vistas transversales que no están vinculadas a ningún país en particular. Dan al panel visibilidad sobre canales de estrés que no respetan fronteras.
Estrés en los principales pares de divisas: DXY, pares de carry, cesta de divisas emergentes.
Volatilidad de BTC/ETH, pérdidas de paridad de stablecoins, régimen de correlación entre cripto y renta variable.
Divergencia de políticas, probabilidad de medidas de emergencia, proximidad de las fechas de reunión.
Petróleo, oro, metales industriales, agrícolas: índice compuesto de estrés.
Baltic Dry, transporte en contenedores (SCFI), actividad portuaria, semiconductores.
Tono de GDELT, densidad de eventos, diversidad de fuentes: señal geopolítica y de política económica.
Inflación, empleo, crecimiento, curva de rendimientos: los indicadores clásicos de recesión.
El nivel de riesgo global que se muestra en la parte superior del panel no es un simple promedio. Las regiones se ponderan según su importancia sistémica: una lectura de FASE 1 en EE. UU. se propaga de forma distinta que una lectura de FASE 1 en Argentina, porque EE. UU. es un centro de financiamiento global y Argentina no. Las ponderaciones son estáticas, se basan en la participación en el PIB, el tamaño del sistema financiero y la frecuencia histórica de contagio, y pueden consultarse en el archivo region-config.
El indicador global combina tres elementos:
La vista de contagio modela el estrés como un grafo dirigido entre regiones. Cada arista se define por una correlación de referencia, un desfase (en días) derivado de la propagación histórica de crisis y un estado mínimo de origen que activa la vía. Por ejemplo, FASE 1 en EE. UU. → FASE 1 en Asia es una transmisión históricamente bien documentada, con un desfase de unos 2 días.
Las vías están activas cuando la región de origen ha alcanzado o superado el estado mínimo de la vía. Están confirmadas cuando la región de destino también se ha movido. Este enfoque permite al panel distinguir entre “esto podría propagarse” y “esto se está propagando”. El modo de simulación de la página de Contagio le permite activar manualmente una región y avanzar en el tiempo para ver la propagación implícita.
La vista de contagio responde a “¿hacia dónde se propagará el estrés?”. La vista de coordinación responde a “¿se siguen sosteniendo las relaciones entre regiones?”, es decir, si el propio régimen de correlación se ha roto. Es una puntuación compuesta en [0,1], con niveles de severidad NONE / WARNING / ELEVATED / CRITICAL, calculada en cada tick a partir de siete subdetectores:
Los factores de cada subpuntuación (etiquetas de región, pares desacoplados) y los diagnósticos del compuesto se muestran en la tarjeta de coordinación del panel. El compuesto también alimenta tres nuevas condiciones de Cisne Negro: DECOUPLING, HAVEN_INVERSION, VELOCITY_BREAK.
Estimador de cruce de umbrales. Por separado, un solver cinemático (s(t) = s0 + v·t + 0.5·a·t²) por región predice cuándo cruzará cada una los umbrales VIGILAR / GATILLO / ESCALAR con la velocidad y la aceleración actuales. Se toma la raíz positiva más pequeña dentro de un horizonte de 60 ticks. Se muestra en la tarjeta “Cruces inminentes”, que se oculta automáticamente cuando no se prevé ningún cruce en los próximos 30 minutos.
El tono de las noticias y el geopolítico proceden del Proyecto GDELT, que publica un flujo continuo de eventos mundiales codificados por tono, actores y ubicación. Para cada región extraemos los eventos filtrados por su conjunto de países, agregamos el tono medio (en una escala normalizada de −10 a +10) y seguimos la densidad de eventos (cuántos eventos relevantes para una crisis se producen por unidad de tiempo) y la diversidad de fuentes (cuántas fuentes de noticias distintas cubren el mismo evento, un indicador de si una historia es real o fabricada).
Las señales de noticias aportan menos puntos que las de mercado porque el tono suele ir por detrás del precio, pero se activan antes en escenarios geopolíticos en los que los mercados aún no han descontado el evento. Esta separación mantiene la honestidad del panel: si una región está tranquila en los mercados pero agitada en las noticias, usted ve ambos canales y decide sobre cuál actuar.
Los contadores de palabras clave de pánico y de sentimiento negativo se ponderan según el nivel de reputación del medio de origen antes de normalizarlos a un porcentaje. Las agencias de noticias (Reuters, Bloomberg, FT, WSJ, AP, AFP) tienen un peso de 1.0; los grandes medios generalistas (BBC, CNBC, NYT, Guardian), 0.7–0.9; la prensa financiera, 0.5–0.7; los agregadores desconocidos, un conservador 0.3. Sin este sistema de niveles, un feed lleno de blogs de baja calidad que gritaban “crisis” inflaba la puntuación tanto como 10 titulares de Reuters. La tabla de reputación está en news-analyzer.ts y es la única fuente de verdad, verificada por las pruebas de news-analyzer.test.ts.
Cada tick del cron registra el resultado por feed (ok / empty / http-error / fetch-error) y el número de elementos, expuestos en /api/health bajo newsFeeds. Si una tarjeta de región parece inactiva, ese endpoint muestra si el propio RSS de origen está fallando, algo útil para diagnosticar límites de frecuencia de Google o bloqueos regionales.
Dos partes del panel utilizan modelos de lenguaje de gran tamaño:
El modelo funciona con una cadena de respaldo de varios proveedores: primero Groq (Llama 3.3 70B Versatile), luego Cerebras (Llama 3.3 70B) y después OpenRouter, cuyo modelo principal es DeepSeek R1 (deepseek-r1:free), con Qwen3 235B (thinking) y Llama 3.3 70B Instruct como respaldos adicionales. La cadena pasa automáticamente al siguiente proveedor o modelo ante cualquier límite de frecuencia o error, de modo que los informes se siguen generando dentro de las cuotas gratuitas. Todos los prompts están acotados de dos maneras: el prompt de sistema prohíbe inventar cifras y el prompt de usuario contiene el conjunto de señales vigente del panel como entrada estructurada. El modelo resume y explica: no calcula puntuaciones, no obtiene datos nuevos ni hace previsiones más allá de lo que implican las señales.
El texto generado por IA puede seguir siendo erróneo. Puede enfatizar la señal equivocada, usar un lenguaje demasiado categórico o malinterpretar un umbral. Trate los informes de IA como una capa de resumen sobre las cifras, no como un sustituto de leerlas usted mismo.
Yahoo Finance
Datos de precios de renta variable, crédito, ETF y volatilidad: la columna vertebral de todas las señales basadas en el mercado.
The GDELT Project
Flujo global de tono de noticias y eventos geopolíticos. Se usa para la región de Inteligencia y para las señales de la categoría Noticias.
Polymarket
Probabilidades de mercados de predicción, formadas colectivamente, sobre eventos relevantes para crisis. Se muestran en la página Predicciones.
Publicaciones de bancos centrales
Fed, BCE, BoJ, BoE, PBoC, BNS, RBA, BoK y otros: tasas de política monetaria, calendarios de reuniones, operaciones de emergencia.
FRED (St. Louis Fed)
Series macroeconómicas: IPC, desempleo, curva de rendimientos e indicadores de recesión para el sector MACRO.
CNN Fear & Greed, Google Trends, VIX
Indicadores compuestos de sentimiento que se usan en la página Sentimiento.
Índices de transporte marítimo (Baltic Dry, SCFI)
Señales de la cadena de suministro: los costos de flete como indicador del estrés en la economía real.
Citamos las fuentes de datos en todas las páginas donde es posible y usamos cada fuente de acuerdo con sus términos publicados. Si usted es titular de derechos y ve algo que requiera corrección, escríbanos a través de la página de Contacto.
Un sistema de puntuación vale tanto como su honestidad sobre lo que se le escapa. Estas son las cosas que sabemos que este panel no hace bien, o que no puede hacer en absoluto:
Use el panel como un monitor sistemático del estrés que ya es visible en los mercados y en las noticias, no como una previsión ni como una visión completa del riesgo global.
Japón se separó de ASIA. ASIA pasa a ser “Asia-Pacífico (excl. Japón)”, con proxies de Hong Kong/Hang Seng (AAXJ, 0005.HK, HSI). Japón (JP) es la única fuente de la métrica de volatilidad del Nikkei (vnky). Seúl se identifica como “Corea del Sur” de forma coherente en todo el producto.
Se publicó esta página de metodología como reglamento completo. El catálogo de señales se genera ahora directamente a partir del glosario de señales del proyecto, lo que garantiza que la documentación y el motor nunca puedan contradecirse.
Se agregaron las páginas Predictivo y Predicciones como conceptos separados (previsiones internas de ML frente a mercados de predicción externos).
¿Preguntas, correcciones o sugerencias de alguna señal que deberíamos agregar? Escríbanos a través de la página de Contacto. La metodología es un documento vivo: la actualizamos cada vez que se agregan o retiran señales, o se recalibran sus umbrales.