Early stress indicators are firing. Historically, about 40% of MONITOR episodes escalate to PHASE 1, while the rest resolve within days.
Early stress signals can resolve without escalation, but warrant closer monitoring of position sizing.
Utilities, staples, and quality factors tend to outperform when stress signals first appear.
Past MONITOR episodes: ~60% resolved without escalation. The ones that escalated typically showed credit and banking stress simultaneously.
2-7 days
Single region >30% of crisis articles — regional focus
Geographic concentration indicates specific regional crisis
Ecuador is tracked via local news only — no liquid market instruments available. Scoring uses the per-region news feed below.