Real-time sovereign risk assessment — debt sustainability, FX reserves, and default probability estimates
This page ranks 33 countries and regions by an estimated default risk built from fiscal and external fundamentals - debt to GDP, how long FX reserves would last, bond spreads, CDS levels, the current account and inflation - combined with each region's live crisis score. Countries are grouped into tiers from Imminent to Safe, and each card shows a default-risk percentage, a time-to-default estimate and the factors behind it.
How to read it. Read the tiers first, then the factor bars: they show whether the risk comes from debt load, reserve depletion, market pricing or current stress. The countdown is a reserve-runway estimate - how long reserves could cover outflows at an assumed burn rate - and is best used to rank countries, not as a date.
Limitations. The fundamentals are approximate, hand-maintained figures rather than a live feed; only the crisis-score component updates continuously. The default-risk percentage is a weighted index of those factors, not a probability implied by bond or CDS prices, and GDP growth is shown but not scored. Use it to compare countries, not to price default.