Turkey

Signals

Turkey Banks Drawdown+3 pts

Turkish banks proxy -8% in 5 days — banking sector stressWhy it matters: Turkish banks are exposed to lira depreciation and high inflation; drawdowns signal systemic risk

Turkey Credit Stress+2 pts

EM bond proxy (EMB) underperforming — Turkish credit deteriorationWhy it matters: Credit stress in Turkey signals sovereign risk and potential lira crisis

Turkey Credit Drawdown+2 pts

Turkey credit proxy -5% in 5 days — broad credit deteriorationWhy it matters: Sustained credit drawdown indicates deepening financial stress in Turkey

Turkey Market Drawdown+2 pts

Turkey ETF (TUR) -5% in 5 days — broad Turkish equity weaknessWhy it matters: Broad equity weakness confirms stress is affecting the wider Turkish market

Lira FX Stress+2 pts

TRY/USD move >3% in 3 days — lira depreciation pressureWhy it matters: Rapid lira weakening signals loss of confidence and potential central bank policy failure

Turkey Volatility Elevated+1 pts

Turkish market volatility above 35 — elevated uncertaintyWhy it matters: Elevated volatility indicates market uncertainty, often FX-driven in Turkey

Turkey Market Stable+0 pts

Turkey ETF (TUR) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-offWhy it matters: Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to FX/rates

Turkey Real Estate Drawdown+2 pts

Turkish REITs -10% in 5 days — property sector stressWhy it matters: Turkish real estate stress often accompanies lira depreciation and rate hikes

Turkey Market Stable+0 pts

Turkey ETF (TUR) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-offWhy it matters: Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to FX/rates

Instruments tracked

MKT — iShares MSCI Turkey ETF (TUR)

Broadest Turkey equity proxy. Highly sensitive to lira moves and central bank policy decisions.Calm 5d > -2% · Watch 5d -2% to -5% · Stress 5d < -10%

BANK — Akbank (AKBNK.IS)

Turkish banks are exposed to lira depreciation, high inflation, and unorthodox monetary policy. Key systemic risk.Calm 5d > -3% · Watch 5d -3% to -8% · Stress 5d < -8%

SVRN — Turkey Sovereign Bond Proxy (EMB component)

Turkish sovereign credit. Sensitive to lira moves, inflation, and central bank credibility.Calm 5d > -1% · Watch 5d -1% to -3% · Stress 5d < -3%

FX — Turkish Lira (TRY/USD)

The lira is Turkey's primary stress indicator. Rapid depreciation signals loss of confidence in monetary policy and potential crisis.Calm 3d < +1% · Watch 3d +1% to +5% · Stress 3d > +5% depreciation

CRD — Turkey Credit Proxy

Turkish credit conditions. Weakness signals rising default risk amid high inflation and FX volatility.Calm 5d > -1% · Watch 5d -1% to -3% · Stress 5d < -5%

Past crises that hit Turkey

• Taper TantrumMay 2013 – Sep 2013

  Fed signaled tapering QE. EM currencies and bonds sold off sharply as dollar strengthened.

  Peak VIX 21.91 · S&P 500 drawdown -5.8%