This is not a false alarm. Multiple independent signals are confirming stress. The pattern of signals matters: banking + credit stress together has historically been the most dangerous combination.
Multiple sectors under pressure. Drawdowns of -5% to -10% are common at this level before stabilization or further escalation.
Government bonds typically rally 1-3% as capital seeks safety. Yield curves flatten or invert further.
VIX typically reaches 25-35 range. Put/call ratios spike. Correlation across assets increases, reducing diversification benefit.
Developed market PHASE 1: think Aug 2015, Dec 2018, Mar 2023 (SVB). Most lasted 2-4 weeks. Resolution came via central bank action or systemic risk containment.
2-4 weeks
South Korea ETF (EWY) -5% in 5 days — broad Korean equity weakness
Broad equity weakness confirms stress is affecting the wider Korean market
Korean market volatility above 35 — elevated uncertainty
Elevated volatility indicates market uncertainty, often tech/semiconductor driven
Each signal below adds points to the South Korea score while its condition holds. The total maps to a crisis state through the thresholds shown above. The complete rulebook is on the methodology page.