India

Signals

India Banks Drawdown+3 pts

Indian banks (IBN, HDB) -8% in 5 days — banking sector stressWhy it matters: Indian banks are key indicators of domestic financial health and NPA risk

India Credit Stress+2 pts

India bond proxy (IGIB) underperforming — credit deteriorationWhy it matters: Credit stress in India signals tightening financial conditions and potential NPA issues

India Credit Drawdown+2 pts

India credit proxy -5% in 5 days — broad credit deteriorationWhy it matters: Sustained credit drawdown indicates deepening financial stress in India

India Market Drawdown+2 pts

India ETF (INDA) -5% in 5 days — broad Indian equity weaknessWhy it matters: Broad equity weakness confirms stress is affecting the wider Indian market

Rupee FX Stress+2 pts

INR/USD move >3% in 3 days — rupee depreciation pressureWhy it matters: Rapid rupee weakening signals capital outflows and potential RBI intervention

India Volatility Elevated+1 pts

India market volatility above 35 — elevated uncertaintyWhy it matters: Elevated volatility indicates market uncertainty and potential for sharp moves

India Market Stable+0 pts

India ETF (INDA) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-offWhy it matters: Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to specific sectors

India Real Estate Drawdown+2 pts

India REITs -10% in 5 days — property sector stressWhy it matters: Indian real estate stress signals potential NPA issues in banking sector

India Market Stable+0 pts

India ETF (INDA) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-offWhy it matters: Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to specific sectors

Instruments tracked

MKT — iShares MSCI India ETF (INDA)

Broadest India equity proxy. Tracks large and mid-cap Indian companies.Calm 5d > -1% · Watch 5d -1% to -3% · Stress 5d < -6%

BANK — Indian Banks (ICICI, HDFC)

Indian banks are key indicators of domestic financial health. Exposed to NPA (non-performing asset) risk.Calm 5d > -3% · Watch 5d -3% to -8% · Stress 5d < -8%

CRD — India Credit / Bond Proxy (IGIB)

Indian credit conditions. Weakness signals tightening financial conditions and potential NPA issues.Calm 5d > -0.5% · Watch 5d -0.5% to -2% · Stress 5d < -2%

TECH — India IT Sector (Infosys, TCS proxy)

India's IT sector is a major USD earner. Weakness signals global tech spending cuts and potential rupee pressure.Calm 5d > -2% · Watch 5d -2% to -6% · Stress 5d < -6%

FX — Indian Rupee (INR/USD)

Rupee depreciation signals capital outflows and potential RBI intervention. India's large import bill makes FX moves impactful.Calm 3d < +0.5% · Watch 3d +0.5% to +1.5% · Stress 3d > +1.5% depreciation

Past crises that hit India

• Taper TantrumMay 2013 – Sep 2013

  Fed signaled tapering QE. EM currencies and bonds sold off sharply as dollar strengthened.

  Peak VIX 21.91 · S&P 500 drawdown -5.8%