3 points away from escalating to MONITOR. Key driver: GCC_intel_civil_unrest in Other.
Other2pts
+2
GCC_intel_civil_unrest2.00
Symbols
Saudi ETF↓
KSA
$36.09
2d
-2.2%
5d
-0.0%
1m
-5.6%
3m
0.0%
1y
0.0%
RVol
2.0
Saudi Banks↓
1120.SR
$62.30
2d
+0.2%
5d
-0.2%
1m
-5.2%
3m
0.0%
1y
0.0%
RVol
0.6
Oil↑
USO
$147.65
2d
+1.9%
5d
-1.6%
1m
-6.8%
3m
0.0%
1y
0.0%
RVol
0.8
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Signals
Score: 2.0/15.0|Monitor: 5Trigger: 7Escalate: 9
Triggered (1)
GCC_intel_civil_unrest
High protest activity: 30 events2.0+2
Checks Passing (1)
pct_change(market,5) >= -3-0.0OK
Inactive (5)
pct_change(banks,1) <= -3 OR pct_change(banks,5) <= -5-0.2+0
GCC_oil_shock
|pct_change(oil,1)| >= 3 OR |pct_change(oil,5)| >= 5-1.6+0
GCC_sovereign_stress
pct_change(sovereign,5) <= -40.8+0
pct_change(market,5) <= -5 (moderate) OR <= -8 (severe)-0.0+0
volatility > 3512.1+0
Signal Contribution▾
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How the GCC / Middle East score works
Each signal below adds points to the GCC / Middle East score while its condition holds. The total maps to a crisis state through the thresholds shown above. The complete rulebook is on the methodology page.
Signals
GCC Banks Drawdown+3 pts
Saudi Arabia ETF (KSA) banks component -8% in 5 days — GCC banking stressWhy it matters: GCC banks are heavily exposed to oil revenue and sovereign wealth; drawdowns signal fiscal stress
GCC Credit Stress+2 pts
EM bond proxy (EMB) underperforming — GCC credit deteriorationWhy it matters: Credit stress in GCC signals oil-related fiscal concerns and sovereign risk
GCC Credit Drawdown+2 pts
GCC credit proxy -5% in 5 days — broad credit deteriorationWhy it matters: Sustained credit drawdown indicates deepening financial stress in GCC
GCC Market Drawdown+2 pts
Saudi Arabia ETF (KSA) -5% in 5 days — broad GCC equity weaknessWhy it matters: Broad GCC equity weakness confirms stress is affecting the wider regional market
GCC FX Stress+2 pts
USD peg pressure detected — potential devaluation riskWhy it matters: GCC currencies are pegged to USD; stress here signals extreme fiscal pressure
GCC Volatility Elevated+1 pts
GCC market volatility above 35 — elevated uncertaintyWhy it matters: Elevated volatility indicates market uncertainty, often oil-driven
GCC Market Stable+0 pts
Saudi Arabia ETF (KSA) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-offWhy it matters: Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to oil sector
GCC Real Estate Drawdown+2 pts
Gulf real estate -10% in 5 days — property sector stressWhy it matters: GCC real estate is heavily tied to oil revenue and sovereign spending
GCC Market Stable+0 pts
Saudi Arabia ETF (KSA) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-offWhy it matters: Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to oil sector
Instruments tracked
MKT — iShares MSCI Saudi Arabia ETF (KSA)
Saudi Arabia is the GCC's largest economy. Equity performance is tightly correlated with oil prices and Vision 2030 progress.Calm 5d > -1% · Watch 5d -1% to -5% · Stress 5d < -8%
BANK — Al Rajhi Bank (1120.SR)
GCC banks are heavily exposed to oil revenue and sovereign wealth. Drawdowns signal fiscal stress and potential peg pressure.Calm 5d > -3% · Watch 5d -3% to -8% · Stress 5d < -8%
SVRN — GCC Sovereign Bond Proxy (EMB component)
GCC sovereign credit. Oil-dependent fiscal budgets mean sovereign risk rises sharply when oil drops.Calm 5d > -1% · Watch 5d -1% to -3% · Stress 5d < -3%
OIL — Crude Oil (WTI/Brent)
Oil is the lifeblood of GCC economies. A crash directly impacts fiscal budgets, sovereign wealth, and currency pegs.Calm 5d > -3% · Watch 5d -3% to -12% · Stress 5d < -12%
FX — GCC Currency Peg Proxy
GCC currencies are pegged to USD. Any stress here signals extreme fiscal pressure and potential devaluation risk.Calm Peg stable · Watch Forward rates widening · Stress Peg under pressure