Emerging Markets

Signals

EM Banks Drawdown+3 pts

EM financials (EMFN) -8% in 5 days — broad EM banking stressWhy it matters: EM bank drawdowns signal broad financial system stress across developing economies

EM Credit Stress+2 pts

EM sovereign bonds (EMB) underperforming — broad EM credit deteriorationWhy it matters: EM credit stress signals rising default risk and capital flight from developing markets

EM Credit Drawdown+2 pts

EM credit proxy -5% in 5 days — broad credit deteriorationWhy it matters: Sustained EM credit drawdown indicates deepening financial stress across emerging markets

EM Market Drawdown+2 pts

EM ETF (EEM) -5% in 5 days — broad emerging market equity weaknessWhy it matters: Broad EM equity weakness confirms stress is systemic across emerging markets

EM FX Stress+2 pts

USD strength (UUP) >3% in 3 days — broad EM currency pressureWhy it matters: Dollar strength creates EM FX stress, increasing USD-denominated debt burden

EM Volatility Elevated+1 pts

Emerging market volatility above 35 — elevated uncertaintyWhy it matters: Elevated EM volatility indicates broad uncertainty and potential for capital flight

EM Market Stable+0 pts

EM ETF (EEM) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-offWhy it matters: Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to specific countries

EM Real Estate Drawdown+2 pts

EM real estate proxy -10% in 5 days — broad EM property stressWhy it matters: EM real estate stress signals broad financial tightening across developing markets

EM Market Stable+0 pts

EM ETF (EEM) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-offWhy it matters: Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to specific countries

Instruments tracked

MKT — iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM)

Broadest EM equity benchmark. Drawdowns here confirm stress is systemic across developing economies, not country-specific.Calm 5d > -1% · Watch 5d -1% to -3% · Stress 5d < -8%

BANK — EM Financials (EMFN proxy)

EM bank drawdowns signal broad financial system stress across developing economies. Often precedes sovereign issues.Calm 5d > -3% · Watch 5d -3% to -8% · Stress 5d < -8%

CRD — iShares JP Morgan EM Bond ETF (EMB)

EM sovereign bonds. The key indicator for EM credit risk. Weakness signals rising default risk and capital flight from developing markets.Calm 5d > -1% · Watch 5d -1% to -3% · Stress 5d < -3%

FX — Invesco DB US Dollar Index (UUP) — inverse EM FX

Dollar strength is the single biggest risk factor for EM. Rising USD increases debt burden, triggers capital outflows, and pressures EM central banks.Calm 3d < +0.5% · Watch 3d +0.5% to +2% · Stress 3d > +2% USD strength

SVRN — EM Sovereign Bond Proxy

EM sovereign credit. Weakness signals rising default risk across developing economies.Calm 5d > -1% · Watch 5d -1% to -3% · Stress 5d < -3%

Past crises that hit Emerging Markets

• COVID-19 CrashFeb 2020 – Mar 2020

  Fastest bear market in history. Global lockdowns caused simultaneous supply and demand shocks across all asset classes.

  Peak VIX 82.69 · S&P 500 drawdown -33.9%

• China Devaluation / EM CrisisAug 2015 – Feb 2016

  PBoC surprised markets with CNY devaluation, triggering global EM selloff and commodity crash. Oil fell below $30.

  Peak VIX 40.74 · S&P 500 drawdown -14.2%

• Taper TantrumMay 2013 – Sep 2013

  Fed signaled tapering QE. EM currencies and bonds sold off sharply as dollar strengthened.

  Peak VIX 21.91 · S&P 500 drawdown -5.8%