1 point away from escalating to MONITOR. Key driver: AU_intel_crisis_themes in Other.
Other4pts
+2
AU_intel_crisis_themes2.00
+2
AU_intel_civil_unrest2.00
Symbols
Australia ETF→
EWA
$28.27
2d
-0.9%
5d
+1.0%
1m
-2.8%
3m
0.0%
1y
0.0%
RVol
0.7
CBA Bank↓↓
CBA.AX
$149.47
2d
-0.6%
5d
-1.3%
1m
-3.1%
3m
0.0%
1y
0.0%
RVol
0.1
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Signals
Score: 4.0/15.0|Monitor: 5Trigger: 7Escalate: 9
Triggered (2)
AU_intel_crisis_themes
10 crisis themes detected: WAR, ATTACK, PROTEST2.0+2
AU_intel_civil_unrest
High protest activity: 30 events2.0+2
Checks Passing (1)
pct_change(market,5) >= -31.0OK
Inactive (4)
pct_change(banks,1) <= -3 OR pct_change(banks,5) <= -5-1.3+0
pct_change(real_estate,5) <= -5 (moderate) OR <= -10 (severe)2.4+0
pct_change(market,5) <= -5 (moderate) OR <= -8 (severe)1.0+0
volatility > 2517.2+0
Signal Contribution▾
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How the Australia score works
Each signal below adds points to the Australia score while its condition holds. The total maps to a crisis state through the thresholds shown above. The complete rulebook is on the methodology page.
Signals
Australia Banks Drawdown+3 pts
Australian banks (CBA) -8% in 5 days — banking sector stressWhy it matters: Australian banks are heavily exposed to property market; drawdowns signal housing/credit risk
Australia Property Drawdown+2 pts
Australian Property ETF (VAP.AX) -5% in 5 days — property sector stressWhy it matters: Australian property is a key systemic risk given high household debt levels
Australia Credit Stress+2 pts
Australian bonds (IAF) underperforming — credit deteriorationWhy it matters: Credit stress in Australia signals tightening conditions and potential mortgage stress
Australia Credit Drawdown+2 pts
Australia credit proxy -5% in 5 days — broad credit deteriorationWhy it matters: Sustained credit drawdown indicates deepening financial stress in Australia
ASX 200 Drawdown+2 pts
ASX 200 -5% in 5 days — broad Australian equity weaknessWhy it matters: Broad equity weakness confirms stress is affecting the wider Australian market
AUD FX Stress+2 pts
AUD/USD move >3% in 3 days — Aussie dollar depreciation pressureWhy it matters: Rapid AUD weakening signals commodity downturn and potential capital outflows
Australia Volatility Elevated+1 pts
Australian market volatility above 25 — elevated uncertaintyWhy it matters: Elevated volatility indicates market uncertainty and potential for sharp moves
Australia Market Stable+0 pts
ASX 200 holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-offWhy it matters: Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to specific sectors
Australia Market Stable+0 pts
ASX 200 holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-offWhy it matters: Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to specific sectors
Instruments tracked
MKT — iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA) / ASX 200
Broadest Australian equity proxy. Heavily weighted to banks and mining. Sensitive to China demand.Calm 5d > -1% · Watch 5d -1% to -3% · Stress 5d < -5%
BANK — Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA.AX)
Australia's big-4 banks are massively exposed to the property market. Drawdowns signal housing/mortgage stress.Calm 5d > -3% · Watch 5d -3% to -8% · Stress 5d < -8%
CRD — iShares Composite Bond ETF (IAF.AX)
Australian bond market proxy. Weakness signals tightening conditions and potential mortgage stress.Calm 5d > -0.5% · Watch 5d -0.5% to -2% · Stress 5d < -2%
RE — Vanguard Australian Property Securities ETF (VAP.AX)
Australian property is a key systemic risk given extremely high household debt levels and property valuations.Calm 5d > -3% · Watch 5d -3% to -10% · Stress 5d < -10%
FX — Australian Dollar (AUD/USD)
AUD is a commodity currency. Weakness signals China slowdown, commodity downturn, or risk-off sentiment globally.Calm 3d < +1% · Watch 3d +1% to +3% · Stress 3d > +3% depreciation