Asia Pacific

Signals

Asia Financials Drawdown+3 pts

Asia Financials -8% in 5 days — Asian banking stressWhy it matters: Asian financials are first to show stress in regional financial system

Asia Real Estate Drawdown+2 pts

Wharf Real Estate (1997.HK) -5% in 5 days — Asian property stressWhy it matters: HK developers are canaries in coal mine for Asian property/credit issues

Asia Credit Stress+2 pts

Asia High Yield underperforms Investment Grade — credit deteriorationWhy it matters: HY underperforming IG indicates Asian credit market stress and risk aversion

Asia Credit Drawdown+2 pts

Asia credit proxy -5% in 5 days — broad credit deteriorationWhy it matters: Sustained credit drawdown indicates deepening financial stress in Asia

Asia Market Drawdown+2 pts

MSCI Asia-Pacific -5% in 5 days — broad Asian equity weaknessWhy it matters: Regional equity weakness confirms stress is affecting broader Asian market

Asia FX Stress+2 pts

Asian currency basket move >3% in 3 days — regional FX pressureWhy it matters: Rapid Asian currency weakening signals capital flight from the region

Asia Volatility Elevated+1 pts

Hang Seng vol above 25 — elevated Asian market fearWhy it matters: Elevated regional volatility indicates market uncertainty and potential for sharp moves

Asia Market Stable+0 pts

MSCI Asia-Pacific holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-offWhy it matters: Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to specific countries

Instruments tracked

MKT — iShares MSCI All Country Asia ex Japan ETF (AAXJ)

Broadest Asia-Pacific equity benchmark. Drawdowns confirm regional stress beyond single-country issues.Calm 5d > -1% · Watch 5d -1% to -3% · Stress 5d < -5%

BANKS — HSBC Holdings (0005.HK)

Asian financials are first to show stress from regional credit tightening or property market issues.Calm 5d > -3% · Watch 5d -3% to -8% · Stress 5d < -8%

RE — Wharf Real Estate Investment Company (1997.HK)

HK developers are the canary for Asian property/credit stress, especially China spillover.Calm 5d > -3% · Watch 5d -3% to -10% · Stress 5d < -10%

HY — Asia High Yield Credit

Asian high yield bonds. Weakness signals rising default risk in the region's corporate sector.Calm 5d > -1% · Watch 5d -1% to -3% · Stress 5d < -3%

IG — Asia Investment Grade Credit

Asian IG bonds. When HY underperforms IG, it confirms credit quality deterioration.Calm 5d > -0.5% · Watch 5d -0.5% to -2% · Stress 5d < -2%

Past crises that hit Asia Pacific

• Global Financial CrisisSep 2008 – Mar 2009

  Lehman Brothers collapse triggered a global banking crisis, credit freeze, and deepest recession since the Great Depression.

  Peak VIX 80.86 · S&P 500 drawdown -56.8%

• COVID-19 CrashFeb 2020 – Mar 2020

  Fastest bear market in history. Global lockdowns caused simultaneous supply and demand shocks across all asset classes.

  Peak VIX 82.69 · S&P 500 drawdown -33.9%

• China Devaluation / EM CrisisAug 2015 – Feb 2016

  PBoC surprised markets with CNY devaluation, triggering global EM selloff and commodity crash. Oil fell below $30.

  Peak VIX 40.74 · S&P 500 drawdown -14.2%