- FX Stress (CCL)+4 pts
- Contado con Liquidación (CCL) +6% in 3 days — primary FX stress indicatorWhy it matters: CCL (contado con liquidación) is the main FX stress indicator for Argentina. A sharp rise means the peso is weakening rapidly against the dollar in the parallel market.
- Sovereign Risk Widening+3 pts
- Argentine sovereign bonds (GD30) underperform US IG — sovereign risk risingWhy it matters: Argentine sovereign bonds underperforming US IG indicates the market is pricing in higher default or restructuring risk for Argentina.
- Argentine Banks Drawdown+3 pts
- Argentine bank ADRs (GGAL, BMA, SUPV) -12% in 5 days — banking sector stressWhy it matters: Local banks (ADRs) show stress from FX and sovereign issues. These are the most liquid proxies for Argentine financial system health.
- MERVAL Confirmation+1 pts
- MERVAL (USD) flat while FX moves — confirms stress is FX-driven, not equity-drivenWhy it matters: If equities don't drop with FX stress, confirms crisis is FX/sovereign driven rather than a broad equity sell-off.
- Argentine Real Estate Drawdown+2 pts
- Argentine real estate (IRSA, CRESY) -10% in 5 days — property stressWhy it matters: Argentine real estate stress often accompanies FX and sovereign crises
- Argentine Credit Stress+2 pts
- Argentine sovereign bonds underperform — credit deteriorationWhy it matters: Argentine credit stress signals rising default or restructuring risk
- Argentine Credit Drawdown+2 pts
- Argentine credit proxy -5% in 5 days — broad credit deteriorationWhy it matters: Sustained credit drawdown indicates deepening financial stress in Argentina
- MERVAL Drawdown+2 pts
- MSCI Argentina ETF (ARGT) -5% in 5 days — broad Argentine equity weaknessWhy it matters: Broad equity weakness confirms stress is affecting the wider Argentine market
- Argentine Banks Drawdown+3 pts
- Argentine bank ADRs (GGAL, BMA, SUPV) -8% in 5 days — banking stressWhy it matters: Local banks (ADRs) show stress from FX and sovereign issues
- Argentine FX Stress+2 pts
- FX proxy move >3% in 3 days — peso depreciation pressureWhy it matters: Rapid FX moves signal capital flight and parallel market stress
- Argentina Volatility Elevated+1 pts
- Argentina market volatility above 35 — elevated uncertaintyWhy it matters: Elevated volatility indicates market uncertainty, often FX-driven in Argentina
- Argentina Market Stable+0 pts
- MSCI Argentina ETF (ARGT) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-offWhy it matters: Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to FX/sovereign
- Peso Velocity Crash+3 pts
- ARS dropping faster than 1%/minute — currency crisis accelerationWhy it matters: Rapid peso drops indicate loss of confidence and capital flight