Live crisis-relevant prediction markets from Polymarket — crowd-sourced probability estimates
This page shows live prediction-market odds for crisis-relevant events, sourced from Polymarket. It's a crowd-sourced view of probability: each market is a real contract where traders put money on yes/no outcomes, so the price is a revealed belief, not a survey response. The Markets page is deliberately kept separate from Forecasting, which runs our internal ML models against the dashboard's signal history. Both are useful - one tells you what the models say, the other tells you what people are willing to bet on.
How to read it. The headline number is the implied probability from the current yes-price. Look at 24h volume next - low-volume markets can be noisy and prone to single-trader manipulation. The 24h price change tells you which way the crowd is shifting. Click any market to see the full outcome distribution and open the underlying contract on Polymarket.
Limitations. Prediction markets can be biased - US-regulated traders have restrictions, and crypto-native traders dominate many markets, which can skew results. Thin markets are especially vulnerable to distortion. Treat these odds as one input among several, not as a neutral probability estimate.