Contagion Simulation

This page is an interactive model of how financial stress actually propagates between economies. Each directed line on the globe is a historically calibrated transmission pathway: a correlation strength, a typical lag in days, and a minimum source-state that activates it. Click any region to start a simulation - we walk forward in time and show which regions would be expected to catch the stress next, based on how past crises actually propagated.

How to read it. Red nodes are regions currently at elevated crisis states. Pulsing rings show actively spreading simulation stress. Line color and thickness reflect pathway strength - a thick red arc means a historically high-probability transmission. In live mode (no simulation running), highlighted pathways are the ones the engine considers active right now: the source region is stressed enough to plausibly infect the target.

Limitations. Correlation pathways are built from historical windows and under-represent tail-risk regimes where correlations converge globally. Simulated propagation is not a forecast - it is a 'here's how this could spread if it follows historical patterns' visualization. Real crises often find surprising new channels; the dashboard can only model the channels it knows about.