This is not a false alarm. Multiple independent signals are confirming stress. The pattern of signals matters: banking + credit stress together has historically been the most dangerous combination.
Multiple sectors under pressure. Drawdowns of -5% to -10% are common at this level before stabilization or further escalation.
Government bonds typically rally 1-3% as capital seeks safety. Yield curves flatten or invert further.
VIX typically reaches 25-35 range. Put/call ratios spike. Correlation across assets increases, reducing diversification benefit.
Developed market PHASE 1: think Aug 2015, Dec 2018, Mar 2023 (SVB). Most lasted 2-4 weeks. Resolution came via central bank action or systemic risk containment.
2-4 weeks
South Korea ETF (EWY) -5% in 5 days — broad Korean equity weakness
Broad equity weakness confirms stress is affecting the wider Korean market
Korean market volatility above 35 — elevated uncertainty
Elevated volatility indicates market uncertainty, often tech/semiconductor driven
تضيف كل إشارة أدناه نقاطًا إلى درجة الأزمة في هذه المنطقة ما دام شرطها متحققًا. ويُحوَّل المجموع إلى حالة أزمة وفق العتبات الموضحة أعلاه. تجد القواعد الكاملة في صفحة المنهجية.
تُعرض تعريفات الإشارات والأدوات باللغة الإنجليزية كما وردت في ملفات القواعد.