← لوحة المتابعة

GCC / Middle East

جارٍ الجلب...
الآن
NORMAL
درجة الأزمة2.0/15.0
KSA Vol
12.1
الإشارات
2/7
آمان
سليم
المُبطِلات
0/0
الإجراءات
متابعة المراقبة

What's Happening

1 signalfiring · 2.0/15.0 pts
3 points away from escalating to MONITOR. Key driver: GCC_intel_civil_unrest in Other.
Other2pts
+2
GCC_intel_civil_unrest2.00

الرموز

Saudi ETF↓
KSA
$36.09
2d
-2.2%
5d
-0.0%
1m
-5.6%
3m
0.0%
1y
0.0%
RVol
2.0
Saudi Banks↓
1120.SR
$62.30
2d
+0.2%
5d
-0.2%
1m
-5.2%
3m
0.0%
1y
0.0%
RVol
0.6
Oil↑
USO
$147.65
2d
+1.9%
5d
-1.6%
1m
-6.8%
3m
0.0%
1y
0.0%
RVol
0.8
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Signals

Score: 2.0/15.0|Monitor: 5Trigger: 7Escalate: 9
Triggered (1)
GCC_intel_civil_unrest
2.0+2
Checks Passing (1)
-0.0OK
Inactive (5)
-0.2+0
GCC_oil_shock
-1.6+0
GCC_sovereign_stress
0.8+0
-0.0+0
12.1+0
Signal Contribution
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كيف تُحسب درجة هذه المنطقة

تضيف كل إشارة أدناه نقاطًا إلى درجة الأزمة في هذه المنطقة ما دام شرطها متحققًا. ويُحوَّل المجموع إلى حالة أزمة وفق العتبات الموضحة أعلاه. تجد القواعد الكاملة في صفحة المنهجية.

تُعرض تعريفات الإشارات والأدوات باللغة الإنجليزية كما وردت في ملفات القواعد.

الإشارات

GCC Banks Drawdown+3 نقطة
Saudi Arabia ETF (KSA) banks component -8% in 5 days — GCC banking stressلماذا يهم: GCC banks are heavily exposed to oil revenue and sovereign wealth; drawdowns signal fiscal stress
GCC Credit Stress+2 نقطة
EM bond proxy (EMB) underperforming — GCC credit deteriorationلماذا يهم: Credit stress in GCC signals oil-related fiscal concerns and sovereign risk
GCC Credit Drawdown+2 نقطة
GCC credit proxy -5% in 5 days — broad credit deteriorationلماذا يهم: Sustained credit drawdown indicates deepening financial stress in GCC
GCC Market Drawdown+2 نقطة
Saudi Arabia ETF (KSA) -5% in 5 days — broad GCC equity weaknessلماذا يهم: Broad GCC equity weakness confirms stress is affecting the wider regional market
GCC FX Stress+2 نقطة
USD peg pressure detected — potential devaluation riskلماذا يهم: GCC currencies are pegged to USD; stress here signals extreme fiscal pressure
GCC Volatility Elevated+1 نقطة
GCC market volatility above 35 — elevated uncertaintyلماذا يهم: Elevated volatility indicates market uncertainty, often oil-driven
GCC Market Stable+0 نقطة
Saudi Arabia ETF (KSA) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-offلماذا يهم: Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to oil sector
GCC Real Estate Drawdown+2 نقطة
Gulf real estate -10% in 5 days — property sector stressلماذا يهم: GCC real estate is heavily tied to oil revenue and sovereign spending
GCC Market Stable+0 نقطة
Saudi Arabia ETF (KSA) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-offلماذا يهم: Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to oil sector

الأدوات المتابَعة

MKT — iShares MSCI Saudi Arabia ETF (KSA)
Saudi Arabia is the GCC's largest economy. Equity performance is tightly correlated with oil prices and Vision 2030 progress.هدوء 5d > -1% · مراقبة 5d -1% to -5% · ضغط 5d < -8%
BANK — Al Rajhi Bank (1120.SR)
GCC banks are heavily exposed to oil revenue and sovereign wealth. Drawdowns signal fiscal stress and potential peg pressure.هدوء 5d > -3% · مراقبة 5d -3% to -8% · ضغط 5d < -8%
SVRN — GCC Sovereign Bond Proxy (EMB component)
GCC sovereign credit. Oil-dependent fiscal budgets mean sovereign risk rises sharply when oil drops.هدوء 5d > -1% · مراقبة 5d -1% to -3% · ضغط 5d < -3%
OIL — Crude Oil (WTI/Brent)
Oil is the lifeblood of GCC economies. A crash directly impacts fiscal budgets, sovereign wealth, and currency pegs.هدوء 5d > -3% · مراقبة 5d -3% to -12% · ضغط 5d < -12%
FX — GCC Currency Peg Proxy
GCC currencies are pegged to USD. Any stress here signals extreme fiscal pressure and potential devaluation risk.هدوء Peg stable · مراقبة Forward rates widening · ضغط Peg under pressure
نظام مراقبة الأزمات — GCC / Middle East التفاصيل
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