Australia

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آخر تحديث الآنالآن

MONITOR

درجة الأزمة5.0/15.0

ASX Vol

17.2

الإشارات

3/7

آمان

سليم

المُبطِلات

0/0

الإجراءات

زيادة وتيرة المراقبةمراجعة التحوطات

Early stress indicators are firing. Historically, about 40% of MONITOR episodes escalate to PHASE 1, while the rest resolve within days.

Risk Assets

▼Slightly weaker

Early stress signals can resolve without escalation, but warrant closer monitoring of position sizing.

Defensives

▲Bid firming

Utilities, staples, and quality factors tend to outperform when stress signals first appear.

Historical Context

Past MONITOR episodes: ~60% resolved without escalation. The ones that escalated typically showed credit and banking stress simultaneously.

Typical Duration

2-7 days

What's Happening

2 signalsfiring · 5.0/15.0 pts

2 points away from escalating to PHASE 1. Key driver: AU_intel_crisis_themes in Other.

Other5pts

AU_intel_crisis_themes3.00

AU_intel_civil_unrest2.00

الرموز

Australia ETF→

EWA

$28.27

-0.9%

+1.0%

-2.8%

0.0%

RVol

0.7

CBA Bank↓↓

CBA.AX

$149.61

-0.5%

-1.2%

-3.0%

0.0%

RVol

0.2

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Signals

Score: 5.0/15.0|Monitor: 5Trigger: 7Escalate: 9

Triggered (2)

AU_intel_crisis_themes

11 crisis themes detected: WAR, ATTACK, PROTEST3.0+3

AU_intel_civil_unrest

High protest activity: 30 events2.0+2

Checks Passing (1)

pct_change(market,5) >= -31.0OK

Inactive (4)

pct_change(banks,1) <= -3 OR pct_change(banks,5) <= -5-1.2+0

pct_change(real_estate,5) <= -5 (moderate) OR <= -10 (severe)3.0+0

pct_change(market,5) <= -5 (moderate) OR <= -8 (severe)1.0+0

volatility > 2517.2+0

Signal Contribution

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News Feed

معنويات الأخبار

كيف تُحسب درجة هذه المنطقة

تضيف كل إشارة أدناه نقاطًا إلى درجة الأزمة في هذه المنطقة ما دام شرطها متحققًا. ويُحوَّل المجموع إلى حالة أزمة وفق العتبات الموضحة أعلاه. تجد القواعد الكاملة في صفحة المنهجية.

تُعرض تعريفات الإشارات والأدوات باللغة الإنجليزية كما وردت في ملفات القواعد.

الإشارات

Australia Banks Drawdown+3 نقطة: Australian banks (CBA) -8% in 5 days — banking sector stressلماذا يهم: Australian banks are heavily exposed to property market; drawdowns signal housing/credit risk
Australia Property Drawdown+2 نقطة: Australian Property ETF (VAP.AX) -5% in 5 days — property sector stressلماذا يهم: Australian property is a key systemic risk given high household debt levels
Australia Credit Stress+2 نقطة: Australian bonds (IAF) underperforming — credit deteriorationلماذا يهم: Credit stress in Australia signals tightening conditions and potential mortgage stress
Australia Credit Drawdown+2 نقطة: Australia credit proxy -5% in 5 days — broad credit deteriorationلماذا يهم: Sustained credit drawdown indicates deepening financial stress in Australia
ASX 200 Drawdown+2 نقطة: ASX 200 -5% in 5 days — broad Australian equity weaknessلماذا يهم: Broad equity weakness confirms stress is affecting the wider Australian market
AUD FX Stress+2 نقطة: AUD/USD move >3% in 3 days — Aussie dollar depreciation pressureلماذا يهم: Rapid AUD weakening signals commodity downturn and potential capital outflows
Australia Volatility Elevated+1 نقطة: Australian market volatility above 25 — elevated uncertaintyلماذا يهم: Elevated volatility indicates market uncertainty and potential for sharp moves
Australia Market Stable+0 نقطة: ASX 200 holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-offلماذا يهم: Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to specific sectors
Australia Market Stable+0 نقطة: ASX 200 holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-offلماذا يهم: Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to specific sectors

الأدوات المتابَعة

MKT — iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA) / ASX 200: Broadest Australian equity proxy. Heavily weighted to banks and mining. Sensitive to China demand.هدوء 5d > -1% · مراقبة 5d -1% to -3% · ضغط 5d < -5%
BANK — Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA.AX): Australia's big-4 banks are massively exposed to the property market. Drawdowns signal housing/mortgage stress.هدوء 5d > -3% · مراقبة 5d -3% to -8% · ضغط 5d < -8%
CRD — iShares Composite Bond ETF (IAF.AX): Australian bond market proxy. Weakness signals tightening conditions and potential mortgage stress.هدوء 5d > -0.5% · مراقبة 5d -0.5% to -2% · ضغط 5d < -2%
RE — Vanguard Australian Property Securities ETF (VAP.AX): Australian property is a key systemic risk given extremely high household debt levels and property valuations.هدوء 5d > -3% · مراقبة 5d -3% to -10% · ضغط 5d < -10%
FX — Australian Dollar (AUD/USD): AUD is a commodity currency. Weakness signals China slowdown, commodity downturn, or risk-off sentiment globally.هدوء 3d < +1% · مراقبة 3d +1% to +3% · ضغط 3d > +3% depreciation

Australia

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الرموز

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