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GCC / Middle East

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gerade eben
NORMAL
Krisenpunktzahl2.0/15.0
KSA Vol
12.1
Signale
2/7
Ausfallsicherung
OK
Ungültigmacher
0/0
Aktionen
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What's Happening

1 signalfiring · 2.0/15.0 pts
3 points away from escalating to MONITOR. Key driver: GCC_intel_civil_unrest in Other.
Other2pts
+2
GCC_intel_civil_unrest2.00

Symbole

Saudi ETF↓
KSA
$36.09
2d
-2.2%
5d
-0.0%
1m
-5.6%
3m
0.0%
1y
0.0%
RVol
2.0
Saudi Banks↓
1120.SR
$62.30
2d
+0.2%
5d
-0.2%
1m
-5.2%
3m
0.0%
1y
0.0%
RVol
0.6
Oil↑
USO
$147.65
2d
+1.9%
5d
-1.6%
1m
-6.8%
3m
0.0%
1y
0.0%
RVol
0.8
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Signals

Score: 2.0/15.0|Monitor: 5Trigger: 7Escalate: 9
Triggered (1)
GCC_intel_civil_unrest
2.0+2
Checks Passing (1)
-0.0OK
Inactive (5)
-0.2+0
GCC_oil_shock
-1.6+0
GCC_sovereign_stress
0.8+0
-0.0+0
12.1+0
Signal Contribution
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So wird der Score dieser Region berechnet

Jedes Signal unten fügt dem Krisen-Score dieser Region Punkte hinzu, solange seine Bedingung erfüllt ist. Die Summe ergibt über die oben gezeigten Schwellenwerte einen Krisenstatus. Das vollständige Regelwerk steht auf der Methodik-Seite.

Signal- und Instrumentdefinitionen werden auf Englisch angezeigt, wie sie in den Regeldateien stehen.

Signale

GCC Banks Drawdown+3 Pkt.
Saudi Arabia ETF (KSA) banks component -8% in 5 days — GCC banking stressWarum es wichtig ist: GCC banks are heavily exposed to oil revenue and sovereign wealth; drawdowns signal fiscal stress
GCC Credit Stress+2 Pkt.
EM bond proxy (EMB) underperforming — GCC credit deteriorationWarum es wichtig ist: Credit stress in GCC signals oil-related fiscal concerns and sovereign risk
GCC Credit Drawdown+2 Pkt.
GCC credit proxy -5% in 5 days — broad credit deteriorationWarum es wichtig ist: Sustained credit drawdown indicates deepening financial stress in GCC
GCC Market Drawdown+2 Pkt.
Saudi Arabia ETF (KSA) -5% in 5 days — broad GCC equity weaknessWarum es wichtig ist: Broad GCC equity weakness confirms stress is affecting the wider regional market
GCC FX Stress+2 Pkt.
USD peg pressure detected — potential devaluation riskWarum es wichtig ist: GCC currencies are pegged to USD; stress here signals extreme fiscal pressure
GCC Volatility Elevated+1 Pkt.
GCC market volatility above 35 — elevated uncertaintyWarum es wichtig ist: Elevated volatility indicates market uncertainty, often oil-driven
GCC Market Stable+0 Pkt.
Saudi Arabia ETF (KSA) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-offWarum es wichtig ist: Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to oil sector
GCC Real Estate Drawdown+2 Pkt.
Gulf real estate -10% in 5 days — property sector stressWarum es wichtig ist: GCC real estate is heavily tied to oil revenue and sovereign spending
GCC Market Stable+0 Pkt.
Saudi Arabia ETF (KSA) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-offWarum es wichtig ist: Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to oil sector

Beobachtete Instrumente

MKT — iShares MSCI Saudi Arabia ETF (KSA)
Saudi Arabia is the GCC's largest economy. Equity performance is tightly correlated with oil prices and Vision 2030 progress.Ruhig 5d > -1% · Beobachten 5d -1% to -5% · Stress 5d < -8%
BANK — Al Rajhi Bank (1120.SR)
GCC banks are heavily exposed to oil revenue and sovereign wealth. Drawdowns signal fiscal stress and potential peg pressure.Ruhig 5d > -3% · Beobachten 5d -3% to -8% · Stress 5d < -8%
SVRN — GCC Sovereign Bond Proxy (EMB component)
GCC sovereign credit. Oil-dependent fiscal budgets mean sovereign risk rises sharply when oil drops.Ruhig 5d > -1% · Beobachten 5d -1% to -3% · Stress 5d < -3%
OIL — Crude Oil (WTI/Brent)
Oil is the lifeblood of GCC economies. A crash directly impacts fiscal budgets, sovereign wealth, and currency pegs.Ruhig 5d > -3% · Beobachten 5d -3% to -12% · Stress 5d < -12%
FX — GCC Currency Peg Proxy
GCC currencies are pegged to USD. Any stress here signals extreme fiscal pressure and potential devaluation risk.Ruhig Peg stable · Beobachten Forward rates widening · Stress Peg under pressure
Krisenüberwachungssystem — GCC / Middle East Detail
EMERGENCY