- FX Stress (CCL)+4 Pkt.
- Contado con Liquidación (CCL) +6% in 3 days — primary FX stress indicatorWarum es wichtig ist: CCL (contado con liquidación) is the main FX stress indicator for Argentina. A sharp rise means the peso is weakening rapidly against the dollar in the parallel market.
- Sovereign Risk Widening+3 Pkt.
- Argentine sovereign bonds (GD30) underperform US IG — sovereign risk risingWarum es wichtig ist: Argentine sovereign bonds underperforming US IG indicates the market is pricing in higher default or restructuring risk for Argentina.
- Argentine Banks Drawdown+3 Pkt.
- Argentine bank ADRs (GGAL, BMA, SUPV) -12% in 5 days — banking sector stressWarum es wichtig ist: Local banks (ADRs) show stress from FX and sovereign issues. These are the most liquid proxies for Argentine financial system health.
- MERVAL Confirmation+1 Pkt.
- MERVAL (USD) flat while FX moves — confirms stress is FX-driven, not equity-drivenWarum es wichtig ist: If equities don't drop with FX stress, confirms crisis is FX/sovereign driven rather than a broad equity sell-off.
- Argentine Real Estate Drawdown+2 Pkt.
- Argentine real estate (IRSA, CRESY) -10% in 5 days — property stressWarum es wichtig ist: Argentine real estate stress often accompanies FX and sovereign crises
- Argentine Credit Stress+2 Pkt.
- Argentine sovereign bonds underperform — credit deteriorationWarum es wichtig ist: Argentine credit stress signals rising default or restructuring risk
- Argentine Credit Drawdown+2 Pkt.
- Argentine credit proxy -5% in 5 days — broad credit deteriorationWarum es wichtig ist: Sustained credit drawdown indicates deepening financial stress in Argentina
- MERVAL Drawdown+2 Pkt.
- MSCI Argentina ETF (ARGT) -5% in 5 days — broad Argentine equity weaknessWarum es wichtig ist: Broad equity weakness confirms stress is affecting the wider Argentine market
- Argentine Banks Drawdown+3 Pkt.
- Argentine bank ADRs (GGAL, BMA, SUPV) -8% in 5 days — banking stressWarum es wichtig ist: Local banks (ADRs) show stress from FX and sovereign issues
- Argentine FX Stress+2 Pkt.
- FX proxy move >3% in 3 days — peso depreciation pressureWarum es wichtig ist: Rapid FX moves signal capital flight and parallel market stress
- Argentina Volatility Elevated+1 Pkt.
- Argentina market volatility above 35 — elevated uncertaintyWarum es wichtig ist: Elevated volatility indicates market uncertainty, often FX-driven in Argentina
- Argentina Market Stable+0 Pkt.
- MSCI Argentina ETF (ARGT) holding above -3% over 5 days — no broad sell-offWarum es wichtig ist: Market stability indicator — if met, stress may be contained to FX/sovereign
- Peso Velocity Crash+3 Pkt.
- ARS dropping faster than 1%/minute — currency crisis accelerationWarum es wichtig ist: Rapid peso drops indicate loss of confidence and capital flight